Updated 8 PM Cat 4 - 145 MPH Major Hurricane Melissa Moving West at 5 MPH. All Preparations Need to be Rushed & Her Slow Speed May Help Some Find Safe Shelter. Prayers For All In Her Path. Cuba Next. Hispaniola TS Winds & Torrential Tropical Rains. Melissa Will Be Deadly in a Multitude of Ways.

 8 PM

My thoughts.

Reality. 

Long night. 

Longer tomorrow....

Melissa taking her time.

Choosing her spot.

Getting stronger.

Rainfall forecast is off the charts high!

Short term track

Short and Long term...

Bermuda after the Bahamas

Understand things can change.

Things always change.

As of Sunday evening....

...this would be area  most likely for landfall.

Another view, another map

Radar and Satellite imagery on YouTube

Mark Sudduth put this up, thank him!

Eyewall Replacement Cycles going on.

Melissa is stronger as expected.

Keep reading from before.

Cat 4 Melissa

140 MPH 

West at 3 MPH forward speed.

Radar imagery via a post from @icyclone on X

Impressively beautiful academically speaking.

Wide open eye.

Nice bands.

Good round shape.

Mean NE quandrant

Compact in a powerful way.

Pretty darn perfect looking for me.

And this is close in to landfall.

We aren't talking some Cat 5 out at sea...

..not threatening any city...

just ships at sea.

I know someone who worked... 

....with shipping companies.

They hate when people say:

"not a danger to anyone"

Rolling eyes "but ships at sea"

They will add.

This isn't about ACE

It's about life and death in it's path!

This is close in to 

Jamaica

Cuba

Haiti

Bahamas

I'll put the link for Discussion below.

It's a good read.

It explains a lot.

There are a lot of short term questions.

We don't have the answers yet.

The general cone and intensity are below.

Note that's Bermuda at the end of the Cone!

Details below.

So we will wait and see when she begins intensifying again and we will wait and see about her eye wall replacement cycles and we will remember she is forecast to move very slowly, then speed up some and then take off like a rocket ship towards the Bahamas and Bermuda. Melissa is moving 3 MPH to the West and currently has 140 MPH winds. 

Words matter. Good discussion from NHC on the various questions and good analysis. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/261459.shtml

If you want pics? 

Mike's site is the best.

A visual buffet of delicious imagery.

My thoughts below:

People are interesting. Some have very high expectations. I suppose it's "CAT 5 or bust in less than 24 hours" or "it's having problems" and I get that as my best friend was a perfectionist. No matter how perfectly we put on a program for hundreds of people without any problems she'd look down in the dumps. I'd say annoying cheerfully "didn't everything go so wonderful" and she'd respond in a monotone "could have been better" and honestly I wasn't gonna argue as I knew she had a list already in her head of things that she felt could have been better.  Maybe she wanted 500 people there vs 300 people?? s

 

Apparently weather people online fall into two groups "Oh my God look at her, this is wild" and "she looks crappy now compared to how she looked 30 minutes ago" and I've learned it's best not to argue with a meteorologist who hasn't slept in the last 24 hours staring at loops, reading recon info and perturbed it stopped intensifying suddenly. There's also this ongoing fear with  many of "damn, she stopped intensifying, she's going to do Rapid Intensification again on approach to landfall" and its best not to argue with them neither. This is why I have a blog. I can say what I want to write when I want and I can even not write if I don't want. Watching the Carolina Panthers game as I type this.....

As a blogger what do I say that has not been said before? It's always a question and I hate being redundant, yet it dangerous, deadly Hurricane Melissa packing Category 4 winds of 140 MPH moving very  slowly towards landfall in Jamaica. A hurricane is more than the core that owns the strongest winds, there are storms circulating in her bands, and distant destructive storms carried along with her yet far away from the center of the storm. The NHC puts this at the top of their Cone, yet some don't understand nor do they pay attention. Hopefully her current slow speed will help some escape her most deadly winds and storm surge and that may save some lives. Small silver lining here on a terrifying tragedy in the making. You can often hide from the wind, but it's harder to run from the water in real time and this will carry a deadly, destructive storm surge! Add in elevation and terrain will create Flash Flooding. 

Experimental new cone allows you to Zoom.

I zoomed in on this to show ...

...Cone shows Jamaica & Cuba.

Haiti while in blue gets TS winds.

Nonstop TS winds with torrential rains.

Hurricanes carry dangers far from the eye.

Mitch terrorized as a Tropical Storm inland...

Google AI tells that story below.

Again as a TS inland, moving slowly...

Mitch killed over 11,000 people.

From Flash Flooding.

Bobbistorm quote:

"Rain + Terrain = Pain"

Mitch and Helene.

Flash Flooding not Cat 5 Winds.

Both are killers, and they are especially killers in places such as Hispaniola where people have died and people are still missing from being lashed with rain for days before Melissa went POP and became a Cat 4 Hurricane. More flash flooding will be on the way. Jamaica will deal with a deadly storm surge, catastrophic winds and another historic hurricane. Cuba will get the leftovers, but if she moves as fast as forecast they will also get a Major Huricane Landfall. Major Hurricane Landfall, I'll say redundantly, and yes it deserves to be capitalized for emphasis.

Updating after the 11 AM and the only real question remaining is whether she hits Category 5 and I would not bet against that. Either way Cat 4 or Cat 5... you don't want to be in one unless you are the most surpreme of all Hurricane Chasers and somewhere down there is Josh Morgerman waiting to make his move towards the best spot to catch the eye of Hurricane Melissa.

Recent post from Josh @icyclone.

Chasing the eye!

More to come later today. Thanks for reading along... 

BobbiStorm

I'll update after the 5 PM Advisory package. IF there are any changes at 2 PM I'll put that info at the top of the blog.  Thanks for following along in my Weather Diary ;)

Fun good song.

Need some upbeat music.