11 PM TS Melissa 50 MPH ! Forecast to be Hurricane Melissa. Watches Up in Islands. Wide Cone.... She's Developing a Strong Core & Models Will Get Better as Time Goes By. Will Update Later Today. Florida Watching Along With the Rest of the Caribbean. Very Long Term Concerns on Track & USA Coastline.

My thoughts..........

People are bashing Melissa because she is fighting off shear, battling dry air to her West and is partially over South America while moving steady West at 13 MPH in an unfriendly part of the Caribben. As she approaches the deeper part of the SW Caribbean and more so to the North near Jamaica the water temperature is warmer and the shear is lighter. People argue over whether she's like Wilma or Sandy and she comes up wanting as she has not yet done the rapid intensification Wilma. What can I say other than her name is Melissa, it's 2025 not 2005, and her story has just begun. Note the dark red in the top left picture and the purple/blacks in the bottom left picture that is unfriendly, dry air. Note part of her envelope around the storm (that protects it in ways like a baby in the womb) is partially over South America, that is a problem and yet Melissa perseveres and remains. 

Short term movement and intensity is short term. Recon will go on tonight, more data collected and better models runs. But for now let's ignore the models below and watch Melissa ...probably the last of the 2025 hurricanes but time will tell. The NHC sees everything you see, that I see and more. It's a difficult forecast and they are working at it steady as they go.

Irony is that despite all the models.

Models in all directions.

Model disagreement.

3 tracks possible!

2 tracks possible!

She has been so consistent in movement.

You can't make this up!

NHC Discussion below.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/220231.shtml? Click the link, read the NHC discussion.

I'm going to sleep ..... long day. Up the road in the Triad vs the Triangle where there's more Fall color in a beautiful hotel, had a good drink, good eats and good conversation.

Keep reading if you did not as most of it is still relevant. Note her "pocket" her "envelope" is partially over South America.......as she moves West she has more room to breathe ...so to speak and possible bloom! Connect the circles hard to see over land and you will see what I  mean.

* * * * *Sweet Tropical Dreams******

Melissa's 1st Cone.

Wide as expected.

Wider than most expected.

Models disagree....

Salient points from Discussion.

First off slowing down finally....

...allowed Melissa to build a center.

A well developed center tho tilted a bit.

Models disagree on movement & strength.

It's early in the game.

Melissa will show us in time....

...what she will do and won't do.

Wishing and hoping nice but....

...won't protect you so..

Now is a good time to check your list.

Make a list.

Have a plan in case it comes your way.

For now it's moving slowly.

Wind Probs stay in the Caribbean still.

Basic facts from NHC

Watches and Warnings

Haiti & DR

Jamaica

Currently!

Things change often with developing storms

Melissa is a developing storm.

You can literally watch her develop on loops.

She's evacuating energy well...

Building a core.

Doing what she needs to do...

...will you do what you need to do?

People keep asking "what do you really think" and the answer seriously is that until we see what she's really got under the hood and how well developed and aligned her core/center is going to be it's hard to say long game wise. Recon will be going in and I do love info from dropsondes and all the other ways they now have to look deep into a developing tropical storm! We need more data to have a better, more precise forecast. And, as it is expected to slow down and move slowly it is currently not expected to race NE out of the Caribbean. That option seems off the table......... 

No I don't really want to talk on Miami for personal reasons (kids/family/friends) and I'm due to go down in early November so...yeah know it's there, double check plans as it may cruise by closely and late October storms like to trick more than they treat! The Bahamas need to pay attention. Historically I'd say Tampa, though currently it's not in the program.. Keys play attention, many an October Hurricane has slid through the Florida Straits on it's way into the Bahamas.  Greater Antilles may special attention (the big Islands) and the Yuctan looks down below and asks "are you Mitch, Matthew or Wilma?" but the real answer is she is Melissa.

It all depends on timing and we have only just begun. There's a front that's it's missing and behind that is another diving front and end of October is supposed to be much colder in the Carolinas than it was this morning at 43!  I won't lie ensemble models do all sorts of fanciful things.... one caught my eye while looping and listening to my friend Mike. Another one that really caught my attention but remember it's the long range ensemble track.....so less reliable but hey it's over NC is an outlier. Saw this as I was playing on X waiting for this advisory to come out! Most note cross Cuba and go out to sea... a few hook back towards the USA.

As for people in South Florida....

Like my child with the M name..

That's close. 

Too close for comfort for me.

Honestly too soon to tell.

I think Melissa is stronger.

Note they started with 50 not 40 MPH.

For now she is blocked from a USA landfall.

(black are on wv image)

That includes Florida.

...what will be in 5 days?

Check back.

And, that is my bottom line. Follow the NHC carefully as they update at 2 PM, 5 PM, 8 PM, 11 PM with new cones at 5 and 11. There are watches and warnings up so there will be intermediate advisories at 2PM and 8PM with updated info. As always watch Mike www.spaghettimodels.com and follow him on YouTube as it's easy to rewind, go back review what he said and catch it when it's convenient for you! Google MikesWeatherPage on YouTube as well as others I mention often such as Mr Weatherman who covers the Caribbean. 

I will update later today. I have to pack as I have a short trip where I will hopefully see more Fall Color than here and we already have some. Peak in Raleigh is November, closer to Thanksgiving. Take Melissa seriously, her name may sound "gentle" but she's feisty and fought many hurdles to get here all the way from a late season wave off of Africa. She hung in there and she will be at some point a hurricane to reckon with but that's down the road. Even as a Tropical Storm should he slow down or stall near or over any of the Islands in her track ...especially those with watches up currently, it could be a devastating blow. As I always say "rain + terrain = pain" and it's so true.

Stay prepared and aware of all changes in forecast and check back here later today for updates! And, of course I'm on X all day....really. Instagram a bit tho will try to update more there tho I do not want to worry my Florida family and friends too much... tho I'm sure they are watching when not discussing the Dolphin debacle this season.  

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

Ps keep reading blog from earlier as there is good info and imagery there and a wonderful song. So true, if we did not laugh we would all go insane!!

        ****

•  10:30 PM

At 11 AM it's officially Melissa.

Will update soon...

Keep reading from 9 AM below.

For South Florida people..

..good news currently.

But it's early in the game.

Stay aware and prepared!

There's a saying..... 

Jimmy Buffett saying.

If we couldn't laugh we'd all go insane....

...currently we are all in it!

Well if you look at ensembles (don't!)

Nothing may remain quite the same...

...except for our love of Jimmy

***

8 AM 

Good morning ... 44 degrees in Raleigh.

98L is 100% ready to go!

What are we waiting for??

Recon? NHC to blink.

Friend put this up and going with it....

Says it all. 

DR Haiti Cuba & Jamaica....

...need to watch the progress of this system.

Soon to be known by Melissa!

Leaving the blog here unfinished so that I can update when the NHC decides where the exact center in from various sources (including recon) and what the exact first Cone will be. So much rides on this and we all know it's there. It's close to South America currently, yet weather exists far from her developing core. The center has been "tilted" and unlike in Pin Ball that does not mean "game over" but put some more money in and keep playing. Many a storm has traveled far and done damage being a "tilted" system, meaning there is a center and a mid level center and they are NOT aligned properly. Shear and the tilted nature of 98L is the main inhibiting factor and when and if she aligns her center vertically she will become a power to behold and she is surrounded by possible targets that could feel her wrath. And, to be honest they may feel her wrath for several days IF she stalls out or moves very slowly once steering currents slow down or collapse. 

I have mentioned many times "parameters need to be met" when discussing her once 3 track possibilities, then her 2 track possibilities and we are eliminating the wrong ones one by one and soon down to the NHC Cone.  When it made it through the Islands and kept cruising at 20 to 25 MPH it missed the first "turn before the Island" and when it  kept going doing an offshore cruise of South America and the ABC Islands we began to wonder on the favored track by many models yesterday with a fast escape out to sea over Hispaniola (give or take) now we are down to the reality that she may slow down, spin a while, intensify and get herself together and become a memorable, strong hurricane landfall for more than one place. 

So stay tuned. 

Waiting on the NHC to blink and push the send button on an advisory of sorts! Used this song the other day because there are so many places she may go, the list is long and I can't eliminate anything completely so waiting to get a solid center, good data and the next model runs.......  

Awesome Jimmy Buffett song below.... basically we are all in it down the road until the Cone narrows and there is strong confidence from the NHC in the long range forecast.