Models Sense a Tropical Problem.... A Frontal Boundary Calls to a Developing Tropical Disturbance. Many Models Take It Across Florida. Some Keep It Further South Near Cuba and the FL Straits, Others Pull It North Faster. All in Timing. Stay Tuned.

EURO for Tuesday.

Moisture from the Caribbean meets up with a frontal boundary set up and oozes it's way across the GOM towards SW Florida Coastline. This is one run, and the EURO is rarely the first to jump onto development, preferring to play it cool and then when it's closer to development time the EURO gives good guidance to be used when making forecasts. The GFS below tends to shoot fast and regret later. Though, to be fair the GFS is often the first model to sniff development out, but again it over does it from the get go making every tropical disturbance a hurricane. Note it crosses Cuba with plenty of weather on it's way to???

These models were set for Tuesday, a week from today. What we do when looking at models that vary greatly, we look for commonalities between the two. They both show a frontal boundary moving down across Florida and as I have mentioned frequently in the past that is usually a set up that brings up a tropical disturbance towards a date with Florida for some sort of landfall.  Not all tropical disturbances become hurricanes in June, and yet many a no name storm has caused more problems for Miami flooding wise than Tropical Storms that made landfall later in the season. 

It's worth noting the GFS shows a circulation of sorts in the GOM however the intense weather is over the Florida Straits and edging into the South Florida area. The GFS shows a messy system with several areas of severe weather across a wide spread area. One one run it may show a hurricane, on one run it may drop it all together and on the next run it may develop a named storm again. Typical for June and approximately 7 days out.  Models work differently when they smoke up development from a wave that's been around for 3 days and do a good job with propelling it along a path with a less chaotic atmosphere such as they did with Ian and even that was off by a few days, though landfall as a major hurricane was far down the road; excellent seeing that tropical wave was in the distant Atlantic and was a problem down the road.  June has a chaotic pattern as it's a time in transition between late Spring and early Summer, nothing is set in stone yet or too defined.

My concern is the HOT water in the Florida Straits or anywhere near that region that could help fuel a hurricane IF wind shear lessens as it's forecast, though wind shear forecasts are far from reliable.

Most models show this "system" shooting NE fast with the passage of the frontal boundary, but where does it cross Florida? Does it crosses Florida fast vs shooting through the Florida Straits. Also steering currents for frontal boundaries in June can go flat and leave it dangling there, though currently most see it all moving quickly. Timing is always an issue, how fast the front is moving is the deciding factor on how far North this could come in on the FL West Coast or slide across the Evergrades and exit Florida near Port Everglades. Too soon to tell .... ask again tomorrow as the old 8 ball would say.

Below we see a 7 day graphic for rainfall totals. Note, again depending on timing of the frontal boundary everything changes. It could go wonky over Florida and bring more rain up further to the North. Also, note there has been a ton of convection in the Caribbean and the rain could equally stay further to the South and whatever forms or tries to form... could stay more anchored to the South and spare most of Florida.

It's a crap shoot, too soon to tell, models run often and we will keep watching.

For now...............just be aware it's there as a possibility and should make you pick up extra water, canned tuna, crackers and such for your hurricane supplies! 

Valid as of 1 PM Tuesday.

I'll leave you with this grid from Mike who is awesome at making grids. The man could make a living making grids and he knows people want to see everything in one image ...so he makes a grid!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

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