NOAA Forecast Confirms Super Busy Hurricane Season - Yellow Circle Still 10% - Old African Wave Crossed Atlantic Now Near SA

 

Woke up to the info on the NOAA Forecast.

That confirms all the other forecasts.

2024 forecast to be very busy Cane Season.

While the forecast that you can read online is tropically troubling and topical there's nothing new in that forecast we have not heard before since Dr. Klotzbach released his forecast from CSU saying it would be a very busy hurricane season. This is new news in that it's from NOAA, but it's old news as the fast news cycle continues and the take away here is to up your efforts, put them into action to put together the tools you need to get through the 2024 Hurricane Season. Be it buying supplies or discussing if you would stay or go and at what strength a hurricane would be before you packed up and left town for higher land and safer places. If you are riding out a hurricane you need to know what you would use for the aftermath. 

Last night at dinner I was speaking with a smart, beautiful young girl who talked on how her parents lost their home in Andrew but the aftermath was long and difficult even though the hours Andrew rushed across South Miami Dade County went fast as did her parent's roof and windows...... being without power for what seemed like ages was the worst. Finding a place to stay after the hurricane, nothing being normal and time movely slowly after your whole life was torn apart can take the worst toll both emotionally and physically. My point if you think going through that sort of hurricane, the aftermath can sometimes be worse. I actually have a daughter-in-law ...also smart and beautiful...who lived in the Palmetto area during Andrew, she was a baby girl being held by her mother in the bathtub with a mattress over their head while her father also held the door to the bathroom shut as much as he could...while the Andrew took their roof away bit by bit. Tales from Palmetto Bay in 1992.

That said many Tropical Storms and "weak" hurricanes are easily survivable without losing the roof over your head, and yet in 2024 the infrastructure is slow to come back so you need perishable foods, medical supplies for cuts and bruises and a plan on how to cook food, keep the house lit well enough without power so you don't stumble around getting hurt needing said medical kit. That is the take away from the newest report forecasting a very busy hurricane season! 

So the tropics today and tomorrow are below:

Yellow X moves towards the Grid.

10% still. 

While there is a small chance this could develop into something out there in the Atlantic it's more important to note that it's there and that behind it, it leaves a huge swatch of tropical moisture and behind across DR and PR with a tail that goes deep into the Caribbean. Why is this important? Bear with me... Further to the East or let's say SE aka bottom right of the image above you see the moisture from the old African Wave that soon becomes the South American and South Caribbean Wave as it's moisture doesn't know the word for STOP and it just keeps oozing along into our part of the hurricane basin. 

Models on Windy.com show their colors different

Above and below for Monday.

Moisture in the Carib.

Why is this important if it doesn't show a developing named storm? Because when you have the hot tropical waters of the Caribbean heating up and there's a steady flow of moisture, pressures lower and there's always the chance that something down say by the Yucatan or up closer to Cuba and the Florida Straits can begin to develop into ... something be it a tropical disturbance, depression or named storm.

It's all about the moisture.

In the distant Atlantic the water is so hot that it allowed the FIRST Tropical Wave of the Season to make it across the Atlantic. Normally, beautiful tropical wave off Africa in June (not even May) roll off looking or colorful and grand and fizzle and shrivel up as soon as they hit the water that is not warm enough to support their travel plans. This year......the water was hot, inviting and provided fuel for that African Wave to make it towards South America and the lower Islands. Shear there blows developed storms apart, however the shear there with no named storm and no closed circulation does nothing but scatter the convection about and the environment stays moist, and friendly to some remnant of a tropical wave that has long term dreams of attaining a name closer to our coasts.

Take with lots of Sea Salt.

GFS always ready to party...

...shows something near Central America.

Where do you think that came from??

Think about it.

The problem with moisture in the tropics is that if it doesn't dry out from a dry environment, all it has to do is stay alive long enough to find a sweet spot where the shear lessens and conditions can prodice tropical development. This may or may not play out and IF it did...where do you think that area of convection (named or otherwise) would go and the flow shows us we need to watch this region especially in early June as climatology is inline with development near the Yucatan and around Florida on either side of the coast.

The site of the day is https://flhurricane.com/ a place that was a real stomping ground for me before the days of Twitter and Instagram and YouTube when we all hung out there on the Message Board when not on HurricaneCity's message board and site. It's still a great resource for everyone, especially people in Florida who worry on hurricanes coming to visit. 

That's the site and hurricane season is in 8 days.

So prepare now.

Enjoy the blue skies and sunshine in Miami.

Or how the AC feels in your home in Miami.

Please prepare for a busy hurricane season.

Stay tuned....

...Happy Memorial Day Weekend.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Insta

Twitter weather and Insta whatever.

Oldie but Goldie song today...

Bee Gees lived in South Florida.

Miami Beach not far from where I lived.

No did not have a manstion on the bay...

But the Bee Gees

They knew all about Hurricanes.

When a tropical wave stays alive....

..or surge of moisture is staying alive.

Keep your eyes on it!

But keep on dancing :)

Be it NYC or South Beach or Club Space... 

..somewhere someone is always dancing!!