Hurricane Harbor: Hot Water in GOM, FL Straits & Bahamas is Red Hot. This June is Like Late July... Prepare for Hurricane Season Now. Models & Discussion on Possible Development Down the Tropical Road. Weathernerds & DaBuh Sites of the Day

Nothing expected for 7 days as per NHC.

Note old frontal boundary off the East Coast..

...base of the dead front is in the Bahamas.

Thin line of clouds go all the way into SW Carib.

Low riding waves are off of Africa...

...crossing the Atlantic westbound.

Home in the Carolinas, back from Florida, I left the window open last night as it was cool enough to actually leave the window open. That said, the AC will be on later today. So it's 2 days to the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. That begs the question, "what do I write?" "what do I say that I haven't said?" and it's not easy as I think I've said it all regarding Hurricane Preparation for how to prepare for a hurricane, hunker down and get through it and for how to live after the power goes out and it takes 2 weeks to get it back on. I've talked on evacuation and when to evacuate and when to hunker down at home in a zone where you won't get storm surge and you can ride out a hurricane and have a generator for basic needs when the power goes out for 2 weeks in South Florida in August. Yes, you can move away from Florida to Kansas but I warn you they get Twisters and very hot summers also! After just being in Miami I'll add you can't go 2 minutes without AC unless you're in the shade near Biscayne Bay and there's a good breeze blowing.

So staying with the theme of the HOT WATER and looking especially at areas that are prone to June tropical storms and hurricanes as June is 2 days away! June this year may not be "too soon"and yet even with so many signals set to "GO" the tropics are not really, totally ready yet. We have fronts still on the mood and Twister Season doesn't want to end it seems. The flow of air moves in different directions this year and between shear and steering patterns it's hard to get an early Hurricane Alberto in June even when the water is HOT, but it could happen.

Michael Lowry on Twitter posted this image above.

Water temps in the Atlantic Basin.

Early May.

Notice the hook in the Gulf of Mexico??

Infamous Loop Current looping.

SW Carib hot.

SW of Africa HOT....why we have strong waves.

Lots of cooler spots in white and blue polka dot areas.

Currently much of the white and blue are gone.

In the GOM it's hard to find the Loop Current.

Its "as if" the GOM IS the Loop Current.

GOM hot like the Loop Current but not looping.

Florida Straits are primed and ready.

Cuba.... Bahamas ready and waiting.

And as we've seen....

..enough heat to allow waves to make it across.

Caribbean and Atlantic today.

The 3 triplets in the bottom left are waves, convection gathering over hot water and when that happens pressures at the surface lower and if shear is not there, something tries to spin. Closer to home, near the hot water in the Bahamas is an old dead frontal boundary and at the base of the old front there are remnants of the front sitting over hot water and where there is convection (rain) sitting over hot water lingering, if the wind shear is not there then you can get tropical development in water that is 85 degrees! Bottom right you have low riding, but viable, tropical waves that left Africa recently and have all made it across to South America. Add in, when you get a big wave sometimes one part goes West headed towards the SW Carib sliding across South America and the Northern part of the wave makes its way up WNW then NW into the Islands or drawn to the lower pressure anywhere it can find it such as in this case toward the old remnant of the dead frontal boundary and wham IF the shear is not there, pressures lower and it's "Hello Alberto!"

Note in all these scenarios the IF is shear and upper level wind flow patterns... IF they tear the tops off the thunderstorms then you can't get a hurricane going; you can't even get a tropical storm going. But, IF and when the steering patterns, the flow of the air and wind shear are not in an unfriendly pattern the very hot water all around Florida from the GOM to the Florida Straits to the Bahamas put out a "Welcome to the 2024 Hurricane Season" banner and suddenly there's an Invest and the threat of a named storm and someone near there is possibly in the Cone in June!

Ignore the big pinwheel in N ATL.

What this shows us is the old frontal boundary off the East Coast, note as it tries to move away a white line lingers down in the Bahamas. If you look at the bottom left you'll see a line of moisture going South of the Yucatan, reaching out towards the moisture in the Bahamas. The Water Vapor Loop shows vapor, moisture and it's a good indicator of where things are going development wise and otherwise. You can see there still is Easterly Shear near the Caribbean Islands, yet the sneaky low riding waves slide under it, pump up the rain in South America and then emerge into the SW Caribbean where there is ample moisture over hot water to wonder what if something pulls together. Would it go North towards the Yucatan as many early systems do or will it ooze across the Greater Antilles and emerge in the Bahamas where the water is hot. The last few weeks this set up has been in place, it hasn't left yet.