UPDATED 8 PM..........2 PM PTC3 Waiting on Recon for Upgrade to Claudette. By Any Name It's a Mess & I'Will Create a Mess As It Makes Landfall & Moves Far INLAND.

 

Still a Tropical Disturbance.

PTC3 on the edge of being Claudette.

Has 45 MPH winds but lacks a definitive circulation.

Really getting closer.

Doesn't need a name to rock their world.

The EPAC has a Storm. 

Closed off... 

...the Gulf of Mexico has a messy system.

Actually two areas of circulation far from each other.

Let's be honest for a bit. There are 2 systems here ... a broader one below in the BOC (still) and another closing off in the Northern Gulf of Mexico just off shore. Several people asked why they did not make 2 Invests.  Several people have pointed out that PTC3 is going to have one hell of a long tail... the tail seems anchored. We all talk, sometimes we talk publically and other times privately.  It's not easy being the NHC and they have to make that call. It needs to be clearly closed off yet it has tropical storm winds. In truth the NHC did a good job hoisting the warnings and it's not possible there is a soul in the path of this mess that doesn't know it's there seeing as we have been tracking it for more than a week. 

I'm going off, going to enjoy watching a bit on TWC (really wish I was there or anywhere by a stormy beach) and I'll be back on tomorrow night. Again I'll say this........it's a good weekend for Father's in the path of this mess to STAY HOME... enjoy your family, your kids, grandkids.... make a staycation and go somewhere another time.  Stay safe but remember we have not really yet begun to track real hurricanes so buy yourself something you have always wanted be it a generator or a camping stove or ???? 

Stay safe, be well and be glad this is only a mess on the verge of being Claudette!

Please read the blog below as everything is still relevant...if you have not.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

My issue with this system is this...

..you cannot look simply at the Cone.

Weather is far from the center and NHC has said that.

The weather and the center doesn't always line up.

See the image below.

The severe weather is to the East of the Cone.

The Big Bend of Florida is nowhere near the Cone.

Yet training severe storms will come ashore there.

Stronger winds have been found on the East side of the "center"

So I'd be surprised if the NHC does not upgrade at 5 PM.

Either way this is about RAIN... Flooding.

Strong, gusty winds.

Not a good day tomorrow to go camping or fishing...

Rough timing for Father's Day Weekend.

Anywhere you see darker green there are hills.

Where there are hills there are valleys and dips.

That creates the set up for Flash Floods.

The further North in Alabama and Georgia you go...

...the more of a problem we could have.

As this is EVOLVING... everything is a COULD.

And that's our system.

X marks the spot from the NHC.

Again weather is strong on the East side.

Moving towards the Florida Panhandle...

...as well as LA MS and Alabama...

The planes are working hard today.

Surface Center to East?

Light winds........

Need to be stronger for a TS.

From the NHC discussion...

Stressing the turn.

Models are in good agreement.

Oh good... because Water Vapor Loop shows that.

We don't need models to see what will happen tomorrow.

BOTTOM LINE.

NHC still expects to upgrade this to Claudette.

Florida is in play for nasty weather.

Flooding will spread into the Appalachians.

As I said earlier.

It's annoying, upsetting to see death and damage...

...from a weak system.

Everyone needs to monitor local weather

It's that simple.

The hurricanes that form later in 2021 will not be...

..that simple.

Stay tuned. I'll update after 5 PM.

We will see what we will see.

But trust me this mess will deliver a mess.

Luckily no hurricane force winds or storm surge!

Win win there yet still it can deliver nasty weather.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps Suggestion to the NHC... move the cone a bit to the right!