Hurricane Harbor: 3PM Update. 92L Orange 40% in 2 Days. 80% in 5 Days! Say Bye Bye Bill... Say Hello to 92L That's Forecast to be Claudette Later in the Week. Will Invests 94L Survive the Wind Shear in the Atlantic.

80% in 5 Days.

92L has to get away from land.

Some convection from a westbound wave will help also.

As it moves North into the GOM we will see it better.

Problem is here ...it would strengthen closer in.

Possibly...

Earthnull shows it coming together.

Step by step.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=anigf

The MIMIC shows the flow.

it also shows a wave racing towards 92L

May not look like much but every bit helps.

And then it should get interesting.

Also note there's convection congregating again...

...where Bill formed.

Patterns repeat.

This area should be active often this season.

So that's it for now.

Slowly coming together.

94L may get far West but as what?

Models hold onto it even tho they keep it weak.

Long shot wave still hot to watch.

And Bill is approaching Newfoundland!

Stay tuned.

Please read the previous discussion.

Discussion from 9 AM Tuesday below!

Still relevant to the update above.

Bill is a fast moving storm.... bye bye Bill.

Bill formed fast as I did say it would and moved fast as storms do in that part of the world often. Not much to say other than a reminder that when you are staring at only one part of the Tropical Atlantic waiting for an Invest to ignite and develop... you may be surprised by homegrown action just offshore somewhere. Luckily this system went out to sea, many a homegrown system as popped up and slammed some area that was unaware because all the talk was about a tropical wave or an Invest in the BOC.

I really don't have much to add to last night's post about the Tropics so I suggest you read what I said there and take it seriously and prepare for the 2021 Hurricane Season. Currently we have lots to look at but nothing immediately threatening any area with any intense strong hurricane. Bill and his companion Invests should be a reminder that things are ramping up and soon there will be too much to talk about in a short post.

Invest 92L has incredible reviews from the models each and every day and at some point it is expected to fight off the suppressing wind flow and when things change it lifts North towards the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The area from Texas to Alabama (which geographically includes the Panhandle of Florida) will get significant rain, possible or probable flooding in some parts and depending on which model solution you trust it may get wind. Some systems show it as a solid storm and many show it as formed but the rain is sheared off to the right with strong storms far from it's center. This pretty much is what happens this time of year in the Gulf of Mexico so nothing unusual about that. I'll talk on 92L the rest of the week so check back later.

Invest 94L is hanging on in the distant Atlantic fighting off a triple barrel wind eruption event. Okay, I made up that name but the truth is that is the end result of this feature in the Atlantic that takes up a good part of the Atlantic and is a disruptor for developing tropical systems. Amazingly there is more talk on wind shear than Saharan Dust destroying this wave down the road. Should it make it past that as some models imply then that's a problem. And should this set up continue deeper into the dangerous part of the season it would allow tropical waves to make it further West before developing and then making their eventual turn to the North delayed and that would put the Southeast coast (that includes Florida) in play. Another scenario down the road would be for them to get into the Caribbean and then pull North as Matthew and Sandy did and that's a plausible problem for later in the season.