Hurricane Harbor: Updated! PTC9 FORMS ... Race For the Name Harvey... Waiting on Recon. 3 Waves & An Area Near the Windward Passage Consisting of a Tropical Wave & ULL Anchored There ... The Road Ahead

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forms From 91L
Forecast to become Harvey

Cone:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/171440.shtml?

Take the time to read the discussion as it's well put together and explains the problems and potential of Tropical Storm Harvey.

Watches and warnings.

An example being their main models do not keep this feature and loses it in the Caribbean. However other modeling packages develop it into a hurricane and show other possible solutions. The NHC is walking a delicate line here and they can pencil things in now and outline then in bold marker later in the week. For now watches and warnings are up.

Good discussion out of NHC doing a good job giving the Islands heads up as PTC9 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Harvey and Hurricane Harvey further down the road. Based on satellite imagery and various products the NHC uses in addition to Hurricane Recon they have upgraded this wave to post watches and warnings for the places in it's path. As I said earlier and further down in this post the satellite presentation of 91L really showed it's potential. The image the NHC posted a short while ago before the upgrade.

Also you can see the "roll" going here below.

Worth taking a look at cities possibly in the path of TD9 forecast to be TS Harvey. That's a lot of cities spread throughout the Caribbean into Central America and Mexico. And might note includes places in Cuba on the North side of the cone. So pay attention over time as these change and the track becomes more firmed up.

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/171439.shtml?

Please keep reading if you have not. The Red Circle AKA Mustang Convertible definitely was worth getting the expected upgrade. The fact that they put it out before Recon is because they can as we now have Potential Tropical Cyclones (good idea if you are in the path) and as I have said on Twitter it is moving very rapidly West making a bee line for the Islands now already given an official heads up.

The big round circle is NOT PTC9

Also notice the stalled out front.

Tropical Wave and ULL

Then PTC9 aka Harvey and 92L waiting it's turn.

You can see 92L below in the blue line..

..up in the upper right tracks for Harvey.

What will be with 92L and the wave behind it? Good question. Note we are now discussing it on Twitter and it needs to be watched. On one hand it will help steer and shear 92L but it could also become a home grown problem for someone. It's so big it almost eclipses "Harvey"

Highlighted system of the day.

91L

90% chances for development.

Gets a visit from recon.

Harvey?

Goldilocks has escaped the 3 bears.

Cat 2 hurricane. Impressive late life.

Back at the tropical ranch...

Sticking with 91L currently.

And the color scheme of the day.

Yellow, Orange, Red.

You can see 91L leading the way.

92L following.

Recon it seems is going in today. No recon for Gert. But 91L headed into the Islands gets recon. What seems to be destined to be Harvey is getting a visit from recon today so it better put on it's best dancing shoes as we know they can be hard to please sometimes. And then sometimes not. TD4 found no love from the NHC. Will they give 91L the H name and put up cones for the Islands? Stay tuned.... I'll update in real time later today.

Let me introduce the players here.

Lead wave is 91L with a 90% chance of forming after the NHC looked at First Morning Visible. Definitely deserves capital letters, it's a THING. That's about as good as it gets with the NHC so we are obviously waiting on recon to make this call. It is forecast to form by a consensus of models but nothing big currently is forecast to happen. Another low rider, west bound into the Caribbean. Usually the Caribbean is dry and inhospitable but not this time of year. Things are not forming there, that's interesting to note, however they are cruising in and sometimes moving on straight into the Pacific. We are not expecting Harvey to be wild, but who knows down the tropical road. Just to get a name and a cone is pretty big so keep watching. I will say something for 91L it knew to take the low road, well traveled road and avoid the shear in the Atlantic so that's impressive. There's whispers it can eventually go where Franklin went before. Keep watching.

Behind 91L is 92L visible above but SAL is taking a bit of a bite out of 92L. 91L was born in easier times with less Sal about and you can see the difference. Below you can see Gert going to England to see the Queen while she's still in charge. A large convective mass that steals your attention around PR that we are ignoring for now. You can see small, well built 91L moving west and 92L on a sort of leash behind him but having problems following his lead. The real race here is for the name Irma not Harvey. The African wave that has not yet been designated 93L but will most likely be when they write Gert off could get the name and 92L could stay weak battling the area of convection and shear we are ignoring. Isn't ignorant bliss? Or not.. You can also see a front moving East across the United States and far to the North an even more impressive system is about to dip down that makes August feel more like September. Bring it on I say. I can almost smell Pumpkin Spice Latte when I walk into Starbucks. Not I'm not a fan of the drink, but it's a good measure of time moving on in the corporate world in which we live. Kroger has lawn ghosts (I kid you not) outside by the curb... white Casper the Ghost like lawn statues and ceramic pumpkin plant holders. And we have Cabo Verde Waves waiting on recon... feels like September.

92L below up close and scared.

Note the SAL to the North of 92L

When it gets past the SAL...

... a wall of shear is waiting.

You wonder why 92L doesn't just tuck it's head down and try to follow 91L westbound. What's odd here is that in many years that is what happens. They follow each other especially when they are this close and already in the Central Atlantic. Far to the East it's typical for one to normally develop fast and be pulled NW early on while a lead weaker wave continues west. This is usually the pattern. The tracks the models are showing sort of fight the typical scenario but this year has been, like last year, a weird year. The same models that play down 92L were hyping 92L a few days ago, and that's worth remembering. What the models put out, they can change, rearrange at any given time. So for now it's best to watch the systems on satellite imagery and wait until they develop a closed core and get good recon from dropsondes giving us hopefully better model output.

Behind 92L is a system that could be 93L

You never know for sure til it is.

Home Grown sometimes pops up.

Steals the name and the game.

You can see above the area we are ignoring just north of Hispaniola, 91L headed West into the Caribbean, 92L a bit further North trying to take on the SAL and a low latitude large wave.

91L is red and headed west, 92L is orange and headed WNW and supposedly the unnamed wave that is yellow at the top of the screen will eventually head NW. I'm not ready to buy what will happen to that wave as it's a long time off and it's a large wave that might end up with multiple centers or poor alignment before it even tries riding a motorcycle after what could be Irma (92L) in a tropical storm. Just too many variables going on ...

As for the models I'd also like to wait a bit before going long on what will or won't happen. Nothing is happening over the next few days. So enjoy the weekend, work on your hurricane plan, enjoy the Eclipse and keep watching the tropics. Note discussion below showing the problems that the wave closest to Africa (the yellow circle for now) that most are expecting to be 93L eventually if nothing else steals that designation closer in. The NHC does not paint a pretty picture in the short term. Let's wait and see where things go with regard to the big, large, huge African wave. Again, small systems like 91L can go where larger systems cannot. They can spin up faster, maneuver and get a job done faster. Large, lumbering areas of convection are more like big trucks that take longer to turn and to develop.

Note the word usage.

ENGULFING.

Designation on hold for now.

Can change anytime.

Stay tuned.

The last player here is the area we are ignoring that's an odd mix in it's own way of characters. A real drama going on there much closer in than the African Wave. In this case I will quote the NHC below because it's complicated.

There are 2 features.

Or really 3.

Models from Mike.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

A diffluent flow pattern between an ULL ANCHORED over S Georgia and a low centered near the Windward Passage is creating what looks like one heck of a tropical wave about to become a tropical storm. Looks can be deceiving. It's pretty to watch. It's going to knock 92L out for a bit and exhaust it while it tries to move WNW towards the Caribbean, Florida, the Bahamas and possibly the Gulf of Mexico. Some models just kill 92L off from shear. Time will tell. The "Shear zone" or "wall of shear" are words you will hear yet remember that embedded in that mess we are ignoring is a tropical wave. Interesting to watch with so many other factors on the map. As for the models check out www.spaghettimodels.com because he specializes in the spaghetti models ;)

Again it's really too early to pay much attention to any of them other than 91L that is projected to become Tropical Storm Harvey if recon can find a west wind and strong enough wind speed. Oh look...here's an image from Earthnull below.