Updated! Quiet Tropical Weekend? Surprises in Store Along SE Coast? BOC? Worries on the Eclipse & RAIN in NOLA...Charleston ... Narcissistic Tropical Wave... Tropics IFFY Today While Franklin Spins in Pacific As Jova.

Quick update Friday evening.

Again it's there way of saying "we see it"

There is still a floater up for the Florida Low.
But in the realm of "you can't make this up"
It is an "invest" without a number.
Just an "invest"
At least they didn't spell a number out again........
Maybe make it Invest $ for not really an Invest?
Hey you can Hashtag anything

We have a cold front that is moving across the country towards the Southeast. Currently, the models show it stalling out on Sunday and heavy rain could be a problem in many places across the South. Add into this rainy mix is the unnamed Invest along the Florida coastline. The No Name Invest is moving up towards the frontal boundary and this could...  I said could...create a flooding mess for places such as Charleston and New Orleans that has an ongoing problems as their pump system is not currently doing well. You can google it easy if you haven't heard, but just no words. 

See the weather forecast for this up coming week in both places.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/new-orleans-on-edge-as-city-scrambles-to-fix-pumping-system/2017/08/11/46cf379e-7e66-11e7-b2b1-aeba62854dfa_story.html?utm_term=.9ccc94952fd3

Not good for New Orleans.

They better get those pumps up and running.

The link for the 7 day forecast is below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Just seems someone is off... something is off...

As I have heard that the Low will get picked up by the front.

I don't see the front moving anywhere.

Let's worry on this tomorrow.

As for now it's an Unnamed Invest.

As for Invest 99L... 

It's out there doing it's thing 

If you have not already read my thoughts please keep reading.

Such a drama queen... energy vampire.

So many days of watching it ..

So what else can we talk about?

As we are within the 10 day range of the eclipse.

And the models do go out that far...

It's worth noting the GFS (of course) develops a wave.

Another Invest 99L sort of wave.

Now you see me, now you don't.

And it ends up on the day of the eclipse near Florida.

You can see the image below.

LONG RANGE MODEL...

IT WILL CHANGE...

But people keep asking me so I posted it.

More interesting the Euro doesn't see it  (big surprise)

But it does weakly develop 99L

More interesting a quick BOC system again.

See the image below. Loop the loop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

So I wonder could Gert form really close in?

While everyone is watching Invest 99L again?

I'll discuss 99L and anything else Saturday Night...

For all of your tropical addiction go to Spaghetti Models..

http://spaghettimodels.com/

The images above are from www.tropicaltidbits.com

Remember a model shows a pattern. It shows an idea... Over time the idea gets more in focus. Often timing is off. A model today can say a system will be in the Bahamas on August 21st and tomorrow it can show it just off shore Hilton Head on the 21st and then tomorrow night it can show it going into the Islands. Long range modeling is not a science. And models change in real time as the Euro was all bullish on 99L and now it's like "okay something will develop, yeah that's it... maybe a tropical storm, time will tell" so for now it's like the song... Hang on 99L hang on... the forecasters are still in love with you...

;)

As the tropics turn... 

It's pretty clear out there all the way to Africa.

The Caribbean has convectional clutter but nothing more.

Looking closer in you can see off the SE coast an area of interest.

That is not to be confused with an Invest.

It's just interesting. 

Interesting enough to get a yellow X

10% forever and ever.

If they change that raise your eye brows...
It needs an Invest. It has a floater shown below.
It should have an Invest.
It's more important right now than 99L

It's literally, partially over the coast.

Playing at the beach.

Headed up the coast for more beaches.

Currently there is no yellow area in the GOM.

Just off the FL - SE Coast.

I know very Julia Returns like...

We can talk on the Orange later.. or not.

Looking at the loop of the Gulf of Mexico below:

You see the trof that's lingering over Florida?

Off the coast is the area of interest near St. Augustine, FL

Down between Tampa and the Florida Keys is another part of it.

It's one huge messy stalled out area...

..amid weak steering currents.

So watch it for any home grown problems.

You know what home grown means right?

Noisy neighbors who party often.

Stay tuned. Keep watching. It's interesting.

Part of it crossed South Florida.

Another part continued on towards the Carolinas.

Now comes to the double 9 invest area that I don't want to talk about.

Ever date some guy or girl who likes to talk and flirt endlessly.

Note the definiton above.

Okay let's put it this way. If this Invest was a person it could be accused of having a Narcissistic Personality Disorder. It has sucked up the energy and time of the forecasters at the NHC and the many meteorologists online. I mean it started posting selfies before it left Africa. It got a screen name that uses the word "the" before it's name as in "theInvest99" and that's always something to stop and think on. It hands out business cards to everyone it meets, including the tow truck driver, the uber driver and the girl who it has been flirting with online for the last ten years online. Every time you pull away and try not to watch it sucks you back in with some complicated, convoluted story that compels you to watch it again. You tell yourself you won't. You refuse to check the satellite imagery. Invest 90L came along and it was practically ignored because Invest 99L had so much drama going on... Invest 99L bought tons of roses and sent them out to forecasters in far away cities and went on Snapchat and Instagram and it actually for a while tried to get a billboard in Time Square with it's name on it but then decided perhaps not. 

The models invested so much time caught up with Invest 99L they didn't even see Franklin forming until it got it's own cone. And no matter how good Hurricane Franklin looked or how impressive it was Invest 99L out in the Atlatnic for what seems now like a month keeps throwing out little cookies and sending online kisses to impress the storm chasers. Now being a storm chaser you are really vulnerable to narcissistic waves that like to keep you on a chain so they can suck you back in the moment you watch another Invest. In fact, it sucked in a perfectly nice Upper Level Low and the ULL has not been able to stop playing with 99L yet. It's time to stop and breathe and stop obsessing on this self absorbed, attention seeking Invest and move on. Get a life. I'd say wait until it's invest goes red but hey it was red coming off of Africa. It sent public officials in the Cabo Verde Islands a box of chocolate covered cherries. Seriously I don't want to talk about this anymore until it gets a name. It's sucking moisture out of the Caribbean (which is usually dry and never interested) and reaching out now to the area off of South Florida that can't get an Invest number despite being ON THE COAST like Julia last year. Why? Because we can't let go... we want to know what happened to the Prom King from Cabo Verde that graduated from Africa what seems like weeks ago. Let it go...

Look at it out there taking up a good part of the Atlantic, doing nothing yet it still has a 50% chance of forming according to the NHC somewhere between where it is now and Maine and models say it's a Fish Storm but we are still watching it. Seriously it's time to stop watching 99L and (no I am not trying reverse psychology here) and get a life and if it shows up then deal with it after it has a real name and a cone. It's there, we know it's there it's got it's names up in lights and a line in Vegas. Why do we do this? Because everyone likes a bad boy with an edge or a girl who is hard and exotic like the Girl From Impanema. And you know why everyone watches the girl from Impanema? Because she moves so slow and sexy ... Do you have any idea how long it took that girl to put on that much make up, do her hair and find the perfect bathing suit to catch your attention? 

Why do people buy romance novels with perfectly sweet nice heroines who fall in love with a sexy, handsome man wearing a cape named "THE DUKE OF ORLEANS" who wants to to devour them while on their way to rob her uncle who supports her and well ... they are called Bodice Rippers for a reason. Luke loved Laura, Luke raped Laura and we kept falling in love with Luke and Laura despite the rape which had a really good sound track and a lot of rationalization that she really wanted it. I can't hear Herb Albert to this day without thinking of that dance scene. It was the 1980s... not much changes trust me. So seems 99L has it's own sound track and we are still trying to learn how to dance with it... which by the way the Upper Level Low learned how to do and now 99L has it's sites on the poor little area of interest off the coast of Florida. 

Nuff said.

As for Franklin he is gone.

Bound to be Jova in the Epac.

Sarcastically said.. he's going to Hawaii...

Maybe Guam. 

Perhaps he has his eye on Vietnam?

He's really a sure bet to get a name anywhere.

Yet he will never be Invest 99L...

NHC gives it 90% in the Epac.

I mean it crossed Mexico and barely missed a beat.

Impressive.

It's August 11th and we are more than two thirds done with summer and on the way to Fall. Fall means football and hurricanes and back to school. For some around the country the kids have already gone back to school as Labor Day no longer tends to be the last weekend of summer before school. But will Labor Day bring us hurricanes this year? Possibly. But for now the main point here is to get out and enjoy yourselves weather permitting. In the Southeast there may be some heavy rain and along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico you'll be lucky if you don't get any rain.

I went out last night for drinks on a rooftop bar in Raleigh and sat outside. The sunset actually cooperated. The temperatures are moderating. It was a sports bar, we watched football. Life is good. There is so much going on in the world today that you got to take a few minutes to enjoy what you got while you got it. In the tenuous crazy times we live in it's good to smell the roses in the neighbor's yard, go to the ocean or the mountains or your favorite restaurant and actually get a drink and watch a football game. Listen to the music, dance and be happy for what you got without thinking on what you thought you wanted when that wave rolled off of Africa. It's just the way we are... as storm chasers, trackers and forecasters we all want a really good Cabo Verde Wave that turns into a Hurricane and...

Go to the mall and get a good cup of Starbucks or Caribou or whatever rocks your boat.

I'll be back when there is something to update on and I am NOT updating on 99L if it gets a red circle with 70% chances of forming. Maybe if it's about to be upgraded to a named storm. I'll admit I wanted to go chase it somewhere in the Outer Banks or maybe Wrightsville or really Morehead City but it's not even late August there will be more where that one came from and hopefully one with less talk and more action.

Besos BobbiStorm.

Ps..if you liked my analogy check this video out...or others. I came across it a while back..while trying to figure out where my Great Great Grandfather came from which is hard to do as he came from Russia originally (though it may have be Poland, Romania or Lithuania now days) and he had a penchant for changing names which I suppose I may have gotten from him. So Woolfe or Wolf or Wolfe or Velvel or Zev and not sure he didn't use William Abrams is a slippery moving target on Ancestry. But he did live out his life in Tampa watching thunderstorms out over Tampa Bay after living in Key West for a long time in the 1880s where he was naturalized. I guess I got those weather watching genes from him. Maybe if he was alive today he'd be WolfCane online. Just a thought. This picture is in books about Key West history but it was in my grandma's picture album as well... as her father Wolf with her two brothers on the docks of Key West. Notice he's dressed a bit nicer than the people on the dock. A mystery and that is why mysteries consume us because there's nothing sexier than a little mystery.



She's good... very good.  She makes good, valid points!