Potential Tropical Cyclone Alert SEVEN - Cone Up for What Most Likely Will Soon be TD 7

Satellite imagery

This may be confusing to some so I am going to be very brief and clear here. The NHC has initiated potential tropical cyclone advisories for what they expect to become Tropical Depression 7. It is NOT TD7 but it is forecast by the NHC to be a TD soon. As it is forecast to track near and over land, advisories have been put up for the areas that will be affected by TD7 that is forecast to be a Tropical Storm in a short while. Recon should go in tomorrow and get a clearer view. Despite SHEAR it has pulled together somewhat and is trying hard to form. There is an Upper Level Low nearby that has been affecting it in a similar way as TD4 and Don were affected by a similar Upper Level Low.  This sort of shear is common, especially in the Caribbean.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/062036.shtml

Note the wording in the discussion below. I show this as many people seem unaware that 90L has been battling shear and had it not been battling it might have already formed. It is forecast to develop and a cone is out to properly warn the people in it's forecast path.

Cone below:

Again this is Potential Tropical Cyclone SEVEN.

Sometimes things do not live up to their potential.

Tomorrow should tell the tale in more definitive ways.

It's good to give people as much time as possible to prepare.

This is a new process this year and we have to understand it.

I'll update later with more information.

I'm not going to show models as we have a cone.

And there is agreement in the models.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/062036.shtml?

Note a many cities are in the projected path and may see Tropical Storm force winds. Those cities are in the link above. 

Invest 99L is on hold for a while.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps This is a link to the new policies.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_pa_2017SeasonChanges.pdf

Worth reading if you live in Hurricane Country.