UPDATED MODEL DISCUSSION .. Models Go Crazy After the Eclipse ..Tropics & the Eclipse... 2017 1999 .. Watching Harvey and 92L Still and New BIG Wave Over Africa

I'm going to do a update on models.
As some of you may be wondering..
..on 92L and Harvey.
Now that the Eclipse is Over.

One of the last visible images of the day, as the sun sets for the second time today... you can see both areas we are watching. The remnants of Harvey can be seen with a gentle arcing look reminiscent of a tropical system. A weak sort of pulse, but it has not yet pulled back together. Original model forecasting showed the time for strengthening is maximum in the BOC. So we are watching... As for 92L, what can I say? It's not there very clearly, though there is some sense of vorticity as shown below. And, it is about to move over some of the warmest water in the Atlantic so if it is going to organize, now would be a good time. Yet, please remember if the "center' isn't concise, aligned or viable then you just have a tropical wave with some spin and a lot of rain. And, in this case, it doesn't have much rain let alone spin. And, yet it is there on the doorstep of a heavily populated paradise and seriously needs to be monitored closely. And, the NHC is monitoring it so sit back, check back often and pay attention to any late breaking weather alerts if you live in Florida.

The two yellow blobs show "something" is there.

The shear is lessening as I type this...

Yet 92L is hard to find below.

Ex Harvey is easier to see.

So let's say either of these develop where would they go? Harvey would end up in the BOC poised to move towards the Tex Mex area and when I say TEX Mex I mean Texas pay attention. The last thing some areas of Texas needs is a tropical anything wandering around the coast of the Gulf of Mexico dumping rain in it's path as it moves slowly. That is a possibility. New model runs show it as a possibility more often than just crashing into Tampico. Sometimes this time of year the steering currents, between frontal boundaries, go weak and storms sit there creating flooding situations. That part of the coast has had problems often this summer with localized flooding. See the newest model run below for what Harvey may be down the road again. As far East as the Sabine River ... and moving East finally with the front. Different from going into Mexico and dying... if it is reborn.

Yeah, we might have a problem.

Adding to that 92L.

The latest models went funky.

Perhaps it was the Eclipse.

Next model run might look right again.

It's hard to deal with the models above.

Easy to say it doesn't form fast..

wanders weakly chasing Harvey.

For a while ...

..then wanders around the GOM.

(VERY WARM WATER)

Criss Crosses Florida.

Maybe it visits the moon?

Waiting on next model runs...

Luckily there isn't much there now.

Stay tuned.

Watch them both.

Even if they seem weak.

They could develop.

And the water is warm..

As for the Eclipse... I'll probably write long tomorrow. It was kind of awesome in a way. It definitely got darker in Raleigh, a gritty sort of dusky look as if I lived in LA again and pollution was strong however the sky was blue. Kids hung out borrowing a few pair of glasses a nice lady had who lives nearby and put aside their home made cereal box viewers. What was to me most amazing is the shadows the oak tree made on the pavement. And, when the wind blew it looked like little laterns dancing around on the ground below. 

Amazing how an eclipse in the sky.

Could be painted onto the pavement.

It was really beautiful.

The picture on the left was taken about 80% ... 

After it already got a bit darker.

The picture on the right was at 92%

Gritty, dusky...

As if your eyes got funny for a few minutes.

It was fun... loved it.

Now back to the tropics.

From satellite imagery.

Before above..

...during below.

Let's hope those models are helpful tomorrow.

Thanks for being here with me.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter..

* * * 

Tropical Discussion at the bottom.

Scroll down if you're in a rush..

I'm going to let the tropics take back burner in ways today to the Eclipse as being honest here everyone that watches the sky is thinking on the eclipse today. Some call it the Great American Eclipse (something Julius Caesar might wince on) and locally it's called the Great Carolina Eclipse. Some regions of the country are mini centers of local pride and the Carolinas is one of those places. There is no Mason Dixie here between the North and South though there is a BBQ sauce line that defines the type of BBQ sauce we use or prefer. There's also a fault line between the higher parts of Carolina and the lower parts, the parts where the rivers run... where the Sandhills begin and you lose the dark red clay most people think is only in Georgia. When driving on the expressway you can't tell where one ends and one begins; it's a subtle change and the change is always more dramatic from West to East than from North to South.

I'm not in the path of totality and that decision to not to join in today's temporary migration to those places where the sun won't shine for a bit less than 3 minutes was made a while ago. It will be 92% here in Raleigh and I don't think that's an omen for me writing about 92L as much as a reminder to me personally that 1992 was the year I went through Hurricane Andrew on Miami Beach. I'm a weather historian of sorts and everything connects in my mind to some other place or time.

So this here "Great Carolina Eclipse" in 2017 is part of a cycle of eclipses known as Saros Cycle 145. The last time this cycle happened was 1999, August to be exact and the date August 11, 1999 still connects in my strange mind to "Eclipse Day" as much was made of that eclipse that started just to the East of the USA and it came during a busy Hurricane Season.

So let's go back to 1999. Ironically, as busy as 1999 was, we were basically just watching waves then as nothing had really popped of note. Okay, the normal BOC happened prior to the eclipse as a depression and Arlene formed "early" in June and everyone said you can't judge a season by the date of the first storm. 1999 was known as busy as there were FIVE Category 4 Hurricanes. The season came alive after the Eclipse, as most hurricane seasons do when we remember September is here and Pre Season is finally over. Prime time in the tropics begins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Oddly we had the same name list was we have this year, however Floyd got dropped from the list after dropping obscene amounts of rain on North Carolina (as Matthew did last year) creating a huge flooding disaster going down as one of the weather stories of the year. We also had Irene which was infamous for causing flooding in the Miami area that was not originally forecast to get any weather from the storm. Seems a similar sort of confusing year regarding the models. It was a wet year in the Miami area that summer and I've been concerned this year that South Florida is due for a late season storm out of the Caribbean catching a cold front. So keep that in mind in a month of so..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene_(1999)

Looks familiar doesn't it?

Tracks are below.

Long trackers.

1999 = Cape Verde Storms.

2017 = Cabo Verde Storms.

Long coastal cruiser storms.

Caribbean action.

Check out the monthly totals below.

We had only just begun...

...now we are looking for the I storm

Oddly the 8/11/1999 eclipse was considered big by many as it was the one coming before the Millenium. In 1999 we were all about the Millenium coming and the calendar turning over to the year 2000. There was a massive sense that time was changing, we were moving forward fast into a new century.

Today's eclipse shadow crosses the whole expanse from West to East of the United States. A slim pickens sort of path that will see totality for a little less than 3 minutes. It being the last days of summer, people have planned out their summer vacations to see the Eclipse for a while now. Here in Raleigh the Chabad Synagogue had morning prayers and people got off I-95 to detour to Raleigh to catch a daily prayer service on their way to catch the total eclipse later today in South Carolina. Saturday we had a family staying in town on their way to Asheville to see the Eclipse from Monsey New York.. people be on the move this week. The highways are full and watches have been put out for people to drive safe, do not look at the sun while driving, do not wear the Eclipse glasses while driving and to take water, snacks and phone battery chargers along in case you get stuck on the road some where. Others are glued to their TV or an App or just watching online. Others keep asking me "so this eclipse, it's today?" and I suppose they are watching Neftlix a whole lot more than TWC. 

2017 Eclipse.

2017 Hurricane Season so far... 

...busier so far than 1999 go figure.

With regard to this year's eclipse as always it's all about weather. My daughter in law is with her brother in Oregon where the weather should be better than where friends of mine are in Charleston waiting on the Eclipse. As always it's all about timing and location when hoping to see an Eclipse. There is a chance of showers and clouds in the beautiful coastal cities of South Carolina that are filled with people on beaches hoping to get that perfect memory. Time as always will tell, Tuesday would have worked better. 

And the big Eclipse map is below.

If you want to know the weather..

..watch TWC they are doing Eclipse weather all day.

Whatever today's eclipse means to you enjoy the day. To me it means TWC will go back to covering the weather. It means we are one day closer to cooler temperatures and the possibility of more than Invests on the front page of the NHC. Harvey is forecast to possibly come back to life in some form and head towards the Tex Mex region as seen below.

Alfred is correct.

92L will make FL messy ...

But it still has not formed.

Yet they say it may close in.

Hmnn...

Our NHC product below has 3 Xs.

Area of formation for 92L includes Disneyworld...

In September of 1999 we were tracking 3 as well.

Will that happen in 2017 soon?

Looks a lot like the CMC model..

Look at that new African Wave...

..Labor Day is coming.

Hmnnn...

Stay tuned...

Stay safe!

Have a blast today...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

Ps I have to tell you I can "feel" the eclipse energy today. The cicadas are out early making noise, the sunshine is bright and I can kind of feel a sense of something going on. I'm staying busy, going out for a bit, watching as I do the world around me and I'll be watching to see exactly what 92% in Raleigh will be like. Many say it won't be much, but I'm not expecting much so my expectations are low. Going to try that grater idea and maybe a pin hole or maybe I'll sit a spell and just write whatever comes into my mind in my journal. Who knows.. Remembered last night it was nephew's birthday in Greece and today my nephew in Miami's birthday. Go figure on Eclipse Day... there's something to think on..