UPDATED! 45 MPH at 8 PM & Earthquake Tsunami - Tropical Storm Don Forms ..Headed Into the Eastern Carib. Watches & Warnings UP. Recon Went IN and Found TS Winds.

UPDATED

8PM Intermediate Advisory

11.2 N

53.8 W

West at 17 mph

45 MPH winds

1009 Barometric Pressure

Flared up and showing off a bit tonight.

Don has a lot of skeptics.

Many would have preferred it being just a TD.

But it's Don. Keep watching.

No new thoughts on it's future.

Again worth mentioning they show it thru Wednesday.

Cone is shown below.

For those into Geology.

There was a large earthquake in Kamchatka 

For those of you who never played RISK the map is below:

Everything in the world is connected.

It's all awesome.

Sometimes dangerous but awesome.

Most models do not keep Don alive much longer than Bret.

Let's look at Bret again quickly.

Something could change.

But wouldn't count on it.

Patterns often exist. 

Should be interesting to see what's next after Don.

Again we are on the 4th storm of the season.

In 1960 Hurricane Donna formed on Aug 29th.

Donna was the only long tracker of that year.

And what a tracker.

The season started with Abby that formed near Bret and Don.

Yet, they all continued on and on.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Feel free to read the whole blog if you have not done so yet.

It explains how Don formed from a 50% orange circle this morning.

Go Recon!

BobbiStorm

I'll update in the morning.

* * *

11.2 N

52. 6W

W at 17 MPH

40 MPH Winds

1009 Barometric Pressure

Tropical Storm Don

Wide View of areas that need to watch Don.

Cones:

We have multiple cones these days.

I'm not going to show models as next model run will have better data from recon. And in general the models have been in agreement with the package above. Westbound...  If anything changes I'll put up a new post or upgrade this post to include newer models. No surprises expected here. Many may ask why such a fast upgrade. The NHC works in real time. When something has a 50% chance of developing in the next few days that means that it can be upgraded in the next few hours. The fact that the NHC sent planes in to a system this far out that still was coming together showed their interest in getting the best data to properly warn the islands in the path of this storm.

Cities that could be affected:

Advisories are out.

Watches and warnings are up.

How did this happen?

Recon went in.

We watched in real time.

They upgraded in real time.

Tropical meteorology is fluid and develops fast.

So now we have Tropical Storm Don.

The storm that wasn't expected to form.

So much for a quiet week in the tropics.

Despite the presence of SAL ....

TS Don, a small cyclone, formed today.

First the NHC puts out a statement.

Info is sent out.

For hours people online have been watching recon.

Really the process is awesome.

Why?

In general it's in an area of low shear.

See how narrow a ribbon of opportunity it had.

They also found TS winds in a small area to the East of the center.

Water is warm.

It's got a Green Light for some further development.

This image was put up by Crown Weather earlier today.

Rob believed before recon went in that it would be upgraded.

There's been a lot of talk between us all.

Now look at the shear maps.

Don is in the green... in the money honey.

The red lines are not friendly "do not go there"

Don grabbed the opportunity and made the best of it.

Again it is a SMALL system and that makes it easier in ways.

It has a well defined center in it's small overall package.

And for the next day or so that upper level environment helps it along.

The planes went in... we watched in real time.

Were the winds there to make it Don vs TD5?

Yes they were....

And then in any language you get the idea.

Tormenta Don! Aqui ;)

Be like Christmas in July for tropical meteorologists.

July does tend to have a slow period.

Mid July we usually start increasing in named storms.

Moving West towards the Eastern Caribbean.

Don may have a running mate behind him.

That system is begging for the name 96L

Tho it may go NW into the SAL.

Maybe some sacrificial act to save Don?

Okay digressing a bit but hard to see how that will work.

Stay tuned.

I'll upgrade later today.

We have time to watch the system behind Don.

Today and tomorrow we need to pay close attention to Don.

Small tropical storms can spin up fast.

And it has warm water and light shear currently.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @BobbiStorm

Ps.. This could be a replay of Bret.

But no two storms are the same ...

..even when they take a similar path.

All the models are up on Spaghetti Models.

http://spaghettimodels.com/