Hurricane Models. Will MJO & Kelvin Wave Give the Tropics the Kick It Needs to Knock Out Some Real Hurricanes? Fall Fashions. Green is Good Remember That. Extra Credit... Will a Hurricane Hit Charleston on Eclipse Day. I wonder if there is a line on that in Vegas yet? Hmnn Men, Music, Memories

Top part of above graph is most current time period.
Bottom part is as we move deep along in time.
A 40 day forecast...
You know me I don't like to go beyond the 7 day.
But it's worth talking about.

Continuing with yesterdays fashion theme. One of the colors for Fall is green. Not a bright green, but it's green. We associate green with fertile, tropical foliage begging us to take selfie's to send home in the middle of the cold, white winter or post on Facebook. Green mean "GO" and we all learned in high school it's the light at the end of Daisy's dock begging Gatsby to GO for Daisy the love of his life. And when dealing with the tropics the MJO "GREEN" is good, brown is not. So let's look at the MJO up there again and think on it a bit. Mike brought this up on Facebook this morning so it's fair game today. You can join in the discussion there as he loves to shoot the tropical breeze and we love talking tropics with Mike from Spaghetti Models.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage he's all over the MJO this morning. I'm trying to lose myself in something like fashion as we are weeks away from football of any kind and just as many weeks probably from football. Thankfully I have other interests...But the dots connect or in this case the colors do! Follow along it's not all fashion but hey you might learn something. Oh and I'm doing the music thing this morning while the TWC is on MUTE so sing along!

"Gatsby believed in the green light, the orgastic future that year by year recedes before us. It eluded us then, but that's no matter—tomorrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms farther.... And then one fine morning—So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past." That's the actual quote just so you know..

In school I was taught it meant money*

He needed money honey to woo Daisy

I always felt it meant GO for Green.

Who knows.

The goal here on this blog is to talk on the tropics

The tropics are not cooperating.

Some people don't believe in the whole MJO thing.

Jim Williams from www.hurricanecity.com doesn't.

He calls it "mostly junk observations"

Jim is sort of a purist when it comes to weather.

Jim also lives on Climo Wheaties.

He doesn't read the back of the cereal box until August.

Of course if something has a name he will be forced to...

Some of us stare and follow every wave across the Atlantic.

In hopes we will one day reach out, stretch out arms...

...and see a real hurricane forming in the Atlantic one day.

Ignore the wave approaching the islands.

Going poof.

But it's there......remember that.

;)

So let's look below at some old graphs.

Old as in yesterday's fashion.

Ignored like the Revlon pale pink polish marked down to $1

Oddly it still works and Opi is selling that color for $10

The graphic below seems out of fashion these days.

Look at all the tropical possibilities out there today.

Purple beads across the Atlantic.

Red candy striped in the Atlantic.

Yellow long range splotches in the Carib.

The only purple the NHC knows is "NO NO NO!"

It's not happening today.

Which brings us to another color.

Purple.

Years ago in the distant past we used to look for purple.

Purple meant we might get something spinning soon.

But alas the EURO and GFS are color blind.

The CMC is not and is way more fun but I really digress ;)

NHC on the main stage ignores the wave that made it across.

At some point they will not be able to keep ignoring them.

Sorry Uncle Albert.......

Or Uncle whoever..............

Should I talk about the models, the inconsistent models??? (quoting Willy here) 

So many are so "it's not gonna happen... we are never gonna have a hurricane ever again" Oh Lord got to let it go.. It's July. Give it 10 days or 11 days as we move day by day towards August and then there is September when Hurricanes really do happy. Summertime is for being down and and hot and singing the blues... saying goodbye, thinking it's all over and then...comes September.

Okay so fine.. I'll do the models. Follow along but remember they could be wrong.

Euro hints at some subtle changes but not crossing the pond on a row boat for Emily.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

You know often when the real players refuse to show up the Canadian does and boy does he show up. Seriously NEVER disappoints ... really. Trying not to digress here but definitely smiling.

Talk about orgastic!

Begins here by the way below from an African Wave

You know those persistent waves.

To stay in tune with our fall colors see below.

Switching over to another other site less in vogue.

But still a good site!

Loop and have fun... a real Cane shows up!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2017072500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Green is good.

Brown is not.

The longer term model keeps on going.

Could just be a fish storm.

Time will tell.

The A Team is watching the dance in the Pacific.

The FUJIWARA dance.

Hilary and ?

I'm really trying not to follow that plot line.

It's like GH I just pretty much gave up on it.

But a lot of people are enjoying that scenario.

Other dream scenarios include a hurricane over Charleston.

Well you know on eclipse day.

With the skies clearing just in time to see the total eclipse.

Oh what dreamers we meteorologist be.

(That's pure BobbiStorm not Shakespeare)

So below this is the track of Hugo in 1989.

Next we have the track of the Eclipse.

Climo wise that could verify ...

..or come close enough for Jimbo to cover both in one spot!

Add in the secret ingredient.

The KELVIN WAVE

You can read up on this more if you desire. Google Kelvin Waves. Trust me Jim Williams doesn't think much on Kelvin Waves either. What he does believe in is CLIMO and hurricanes will happen trust me.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/belletal2007.pdf

I'll leave you with a nice song to let you think on the following names in the Atlantic. Maybe by the time we get to H and J we will have something intense we won't forget so easily and won't remember how we sat around in July complaining there was nothing out there to get excited about. There are a lot of names to think on. I personally love the Harvey name and "Jose does Miami" would look great in headlines. Katia... ummm  Stay tuned. Find whatever it is that makes you smile and enjoy it. For some it's a hobby, for some it's a lover, for some it's a walk on the beach or a dance in a disco. Just do it! And as for summer it moves on into Fall. Fall Fashion colors below. Soon I'll be wearing leggings with my short skirts and taking long walks outside feeling a cool breeze and swearing I will not drink a Pumpkin Spice Latte but you know I will. Well, unless I'm home in Miami cause no cool breeze there til after the hurricane season is over and in Miami I only drink Cuban Coffee. Again remember seeing Green is good... beige, brown are not good. Watch the fashions, watch the MJO and keep on reading my blog. Going way over a Million hits gave me a huge smile. Thank you...

Which name will you remember?

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

Ps This blog should be renamed "trying to make Fishing laugh" and remembering the men and the songs I've loved.

* Masters Classes in Fitzgerald, Faulkner and Hemingway. (Did you really scroll down to see if I left an Asterisk???)