Tropical Wave Over Miami, Bertha Soon to be a Hurricane

Going to do a brief update here and then read on...



At 5AM
5:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 4
Location: 26.1°N 73.6°W
Moving: N at 16 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

She is forecast to be a 75 MPH hurricane for a short while in a little while longer.

Everyone's watching the hurricane recon currently in Bertha...

She is what she is ... watch her spin safely out at sea due East of Miami and FLL.

There is little change in the appearance of Tropical Storm Bertha and both Bertha and the tropical wave to her west over South Florida are interacting some currently. It's as if one is feeding, fanning the other as they both flare up. Because Bertha is sharing her "sweet spot" with the mess over Florida all is not smooth sailing with Bertha. Still she is forecast to become a hurricane later today.

Personally I'd keep an eye on the mess over South Florida and the remnants of this current front because if the front does not sweep everything out to sea it could leave behind something that could become home grown tropical moonshine.

I'll update later. Continue reading ....

The yellow circle is gone, but the weather is not gone in South Florida. As I type this it's thundering outside . . . and it's hard to sit here and write when I want to go outside and stare at the lightning show in the sky.

A blob of convection over Florida is visually stealing the show on the satellite imagery.

The counter intuitive yellow X is gone, Bertha finally pulled to the north and slowed down the way the models have forecast. Always good when models verify.

Looping the following link you will see the frontal boundary approach as the blob over South Florida flares up as Bertha waits her turn to interact with the trough. Somehow she has left SAL behind moved on to a more supporting partner.

Have you ever seen models so tightly packed? It's like a 16 oz of linguine squeezed into a box made for 8 oz of spaghetti.

I'll update tomorrow if Bertha will have any impact on Nova Scotia. With any luck the B storm will glide by Prince Edward Island on the way across the North Atlantic. It's a storm like Bertha that makes me remember when I was a little girl and I thought Hurricanes circled the Atlantic. It was sort of sad. I was young. I kept waiting for Hurricane Donna to come back............. (I was little) and then the next time there was a Cape Verde Wave I really thought it was Donna coming back. Yes, as a small little girl I was glued to the maps and weather....and news.

You don't see many long trackers that make so many landfalls like Hurricane Donna. You can imagine how this made total sense to a very little girl...

By the time Cleo formed in 1964 I understood all about tropical waves and vigorous waves and ships at sea with reports on waves . . .  My next door neighbor's son flew into hurricanes and the walls of their house were covered with black and white shots of hurricanes from up above that he took himself. My best friend's father a few years later was a navigator who flew into hurricanes. I dated a boy who worked as an Intern at the NHC. It seemed like everyone worked at the NHC in Miami in those days. Well...or for FPL or Eastern Airlines but I'm dating myself here.....

The point of tonight's post is that every year we have storms that work their way almost miraculously against difficult conditions WNW looking for that sweet spot where they can intensify and keep going a little longer. They can get a name, advisories and a measure of fame.

In the case of the name BERTHA... we will see this name again it seems tonight. Time will tell on that, but it's a good guess.

At 11PM the center of intensifying Tropical Storm Bertha is moving NNW at 17 MPH. Her barometric pressure is now down to 1007 MB and she is packing winds of..........65 MPH. That's a fast jump off of a short pier towards being a Hurricane.

11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 3
Location: 24.9°N 73.2°W
Moving: NNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

How do you like her now? Now that's she's on her way??

I'd like to ask people who are near the 1-2-3 Mariner's Rule grid to keep watching Bertha carefully. It comes close to the Outer Banks and if Bertha tracks more to the left conditions for mariners in that area could deteriorate rapidly later this week. For the surfers at Wrightsville Beach, NC.. Surf's gonna be up..

Note for now that includes Long Island & Cape Cod. Just keep at eye on Bertha until she has passed you by.

Here in North Miami Beach slash Aventura . . . some people are without power after one of the strongest, longest summer thunderstorms I've seen in a while. The remnants of the yellow X from earlier. As Roland Stedham pointed out on air tonight there is a broad area of low pressure circulating over South Florida. Stormy tomorrow also...

My brother and I stood out on the covered, front porch where we we've watched hurricanes and watched the water rising in the street as the lightning lit up the sky.

The street is flooding . . . and there's another batch of lighting moving this way . . .

Oddly my brother's dog named "Boomer" doesn't like the sound of booming thunder... he's hiding under my brother's desk, shaking...

Power is out at several neighbors and friends nearby...  good thing this isn't a yellow X anymore and just a "broad area of low pressure with a twist in it"  :)

Always amazes me how poorly Miami handles a summer thunderstorm. Shades of Hurricane Katrina and Wilma when we were without power for up to 10 days in most areas. Not talking Andrew ya know...

So............for my friend in Nova Scotia here's the story on Bertha. The jury on Prince Edward Island and surrounding areas is still out though it's pretty safe to stay that you will be pretty safe.

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  30(30)   8(38)   X(38)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

So... if you live in the Miami area watch out for deadly lightning strikes and do not do what my brother and I do... and stay inside. Stay safe. Hunker down...keep your cell phone charged so you can use it should you lose power.

Just a side note here is it's interesting to read the National Weather Service Discussion in a city far away from Miami regarding a tropical wave currently sitting over Miami and soon to be Hurricane Bertha to our ESE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

"LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...WILL FINALLY BE SLOWLY EVOLVING INTO A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE MOIST SSW
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED GRADUALLY GETS SHUNTED OFFSHORE BY BROAD LONG WAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE EASTERN STATES. THE NAM SOLUTION OF
MERGING OF THE THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH BERTHA SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNTING THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS WETTER SOLUTION VIA CONTINUED TROPICAL FEED THRU TUESDAY. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF POPS THRU THE PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING OVER INLAND AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A DRIER WNW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE A BIT THRU MIDWEEK GIVEN POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP BUT MAY REACH BACK TO NEAR 90 DEGS AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY."

Makes you wonder sometimes. But, here in Miami we have the NHC and we listen to the NHC but we always keep our eyes on the tropics.

Sweet Tropical Dreams
Bobbistorm

Tropical Wave.... over South Florida & the Bahamas
Soon to be Hurricane Bertha... going out to sea in the open Atlantic...

Bertha, by the way, is the one on the right........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3umaLe37-LE