IDA Moving NNW @18 mph with 70mph Winds...

What it doesn't say is that she is holding up pretty good and looking pretty tropical up close on sat images and radar imagery. The overall appearance of the storm is wide, big... comma shaped, etc. But, she has a strong signature on radar and is closing in fast on the coastline.

Also, the NHC is beginning to issue more info as to how much rain interior areas should receive and that needs to be watched carefully on a real time basis by the local populations in her path as it is a fluid, constantly changing situation which is why weather is so fascinating.

Going to post some of the last advisory and at the same time going to post some notes from various National Weather Service Sites in her path so as to see a clearer picture of what she most likely will do as it is their job to protect their area and not worry about the point of landfall far away.

First off...

Note the picture below which is a wide open shot of Ida out of Canada. They have a fabulous site, really and this picture shows what Ida will do to up rainfall totals in her path as if you look below her neat little center in the Gulf of Mexico you will see a long, plume of Tropical moisture that will be pulled north throughout Alabama, Georgia, Florida and the Carolinas.



That's rain darlings.. Remember, some places are mighty in need of rain.. others are not.

Note the NWS forecasts listed below.

Start with New Orleans where Ida is currently in some way affecting their weather:

..18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE IDA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25
TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. THESE
WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 12Z AT KBTR AND KMCB...AND THROUGH
18Z AT KMSY AND KGPT. MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITES CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTS THE
REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. 32

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/

UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWED A LARGE RAIN BAND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI MOUTH TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT ON THE WEST AND SOUTH OF IDA. IDA HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED FROM A HURRICANE TO A TROPICAL STORM. DUE TO THE LATEST
TRACK AND INTENSITY...HURRICANE WATCH AND HURRICANE INLAND WIND
WATCH HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.


Augusta, Ga:

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS AND NAM REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOISTURE AND TIMING. THE GFS SHOWS MUCH MORE
LIFT...MOISTURE AND IS FASTER. THE GFS INDICATES RAIN WILL SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM INDICATES TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE GFS
FORECASTS AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 OF AN INCH. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS BELIEVE THE FASTER TIMING IS BETTER. THE SREF SHOWS HIGH
SPREAD BUT MOST OF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF OF
AN INCH TO 1 INCH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE QPF FORECAST BUT PLAN
TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
TROPICAL MOISTURE. FLOODING PROBLEM MAY DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR A FLOOD WATCH.

Birmingham, AL:

LOCALLY...GETTING SCATTERED WIND GUST REPORTS UP TO 18 KTS...AND
SHOULD SEE THOSE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MADE CHANGES TO TODAY AND TONIGHTS
FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF IDA. LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIER RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 6PM.

Macon, GA:

* NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE WATCH AREA IS
GENERALLY NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

* CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAIN WITH FAIRLY RAPID
RISES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA. MINOR FLOODING OF MAJOR RIVERS IS ALSO
LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SOME MODERATE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Columbia, SC:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS AND NAM REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOISTURE AND TIMING. THE GFS SHOWS MUCH MORE
LIFT...MOISTURE AND IS FASTER. THE GFS INDICATES RAIN WILL SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM INDICATES TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE GFS
FORECASTS AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 OF AN INCH. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS BELIEVE THE FASTER TIMING IS BETTER. THE SREF SHOWS HIGH
SPREAD BUT MOST OF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF OF
AN INCH TO 1 INCH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE QPF FORECAST BUT PLAN
TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
TROPICAL MOISTURE. FLOODING PROBLEM MAY DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR A FLOOD WATCH.

Jacksonville, FL:

(Seems less worried on Ida I think which leads me to go with the feeling Ida will be a coastal low off of the Carolinas and not hang around Florida...just Bobbi's thoughts)

.UPDATE...
SFC TO 700 MB FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AIRMASS MOIST BELOW 850 MB BUT TOTAL PRECIP
H20 STILL LESS THAN AN INCH...SO WHILE ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING LESS THAN 20%. 12Z RAOB ALSO SHOWS 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET
OFF THE SURFACE THAT WILL MIX DOWN GUSTS TO 35 MPH TODAY AND LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD. MAX TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ALL LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT...STILL
SOME MAJOR DIFFS IN TIMING OF ANY PCPN FROM T.S. IDA WITH SOME
SCTD SHOWERS FROM A WEAKENING RAIN BAND OVER INLD SERN GA...WHILE
ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CONDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY WITH MILD MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


Jackson, Ms:
UPDATE...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DOWNGRADED IDA TO A TROPICAL
STORM A SHORT WHILE AGO. STRONG WIND SHEAR PRODUCED BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS REALLY TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HURT IDA`S TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.
IDA IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MOBILE BAY AROUND 6 AM
TOMORROW MORNING AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. AS DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE INTERACTION OF IDA WITH AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAKE FOR A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD RESULTING FROM THE COMBINED SYSTEMS. THIS BACK
EDGE SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN MS WITH AREAS TO THE
WEST OF THE EDGE RECEIVING VERY LITTLE RAINFALL AND AREAS TO THE
EAST POSSIBLE RECEIVING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PREDICT THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THIS "BACK EDGE" OF PRECIP...BUT IT WILL LIKELY
NOT BE EAST OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW...WE STILL ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE
FLOODING PROBLEMS.


Fayetteville, NC:

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
IDA AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY MID-WEEK. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Wrightsville Beach, NC:

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIR WEATHER TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
IDA WILL BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND WELL OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.


Raleigh, NC:

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
IDA AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY MID-WEEK. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

As for the NHC Advisory recently sent out... note the information on rainfall totals:

Note the parts I thought most important and relevant are in bold:

TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1200 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...IDA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE GULF COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 220 MILES...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IDA
APPROACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

RAINS FROM IDA ARE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.



Back to Bobbi...

IF I could highlight that part about 8 inches I would as I am very worried about areas hard hit by flooding in Georgia especially.

Note... if she does not turn when expected she will hit further west and all the emphasis as been on further east. She does look as if she might be trying to move more to the North.

You can watch this progress on any good radar site... a few listed below:

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=msy
(put in new orleans, la)

www.wunderground.com
www.accuweather.com
www.weather.com (go to their interactive site)
www.hurricanecity.com <--- click on their interactive map

Good story...there is always a financial side to the coverage of weather.

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?blog=Weathermatrix

Thinking personally when Ida is gone it's going to be hard to find colored leaves left on the trees in Northern Georgia and parts of the affected areas as the leaves will be gone with the wind and rain... enjoy the color now because Ida is bringing in winter folks...




See you all later when there is more to say...

Enjoy great discussion on www.canetalk.com and www.flhurricane.com

Stay safe and act accordingly, Bobbi