Tropical Depression Trying to Form in SW Carib - RED CIRCLE

Higher than average chances or as my friend says "more better chances of formin' down in the Carib" and well.. I can live with that.

Recon should go out later today and they will tell us whether we have a Tropical Depression or more, though think wishing for more might be a whole lot like wishing for a Ballgown Barbie for Christmas... as it has been so slow in the Tropics that even this small development is getting a lot of attention. I heard Miami and New Orleans News was all over it and it hasn't even been named a Tropical Depression.

Nestled down in the southwest Carib off the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rico and Panama is a small, little viable circulation center that has sent up flares in the guise of hot towers to get some notice from the National Hurricane Center and they noticed.

Will it sit down there a bit and consolidate or try to or will it lift north and take a shot at the coastline of the United States by finding some weakness somewhere and catch a front north? Could happen. Really too early to know right now. Too soon but time will tell.



Models have been playing with it for a few days and they have only continued to play. Sort of like a cat with a mouse but this is the time of year that weird things can happen and do in the Caribbean and a gentle reminder that if this doesn't rain itself out over land in the Yucatan or in Central America that November tracks are hard to figure and funky as hell. Weather is just so variable this time of year. And, this year has been a variable one indeed.



I do want to say one thing... how it would get there I don't know but the tremendous amount of latent heat over South Florida could be a magnet for such a storm if it was to get anywhere that far north and if the big high that has parked itself over the Carib shifted at all and if a front came down into the South Florida area. I know right now models show it going north and I would normally say that a storm like this would ....if it made it that far north... come in around the NW Coast of Florida .. anywhere from Naples to Pensacola...this far out... BUT... it's November and it's been in the high 80s EVERY DAY in Miami. 88..87..88.. come on those are ridiculously high temps down here and one just has to wonder if that sort of energy could help reel in a real tropical storm? Just a thought... not saying that would happen. All depends on synoptics a few days out.

Keep watching... going to be fun if this does develop as trackers and weather types have been thirsty and restless and right now Ida is looking like a real possibility and a nice Tropical Ice Cream Soda would be just what South Florida needs to both cool down and add some water to the Lake as it's been a long, dry summer.

Stay tuned... tropical developments in the tropics seem to a coming this way!

Besos Bobbi

Ps...small fast ps... Note the high pressure ridge in the Carib may be breaking down a bit...keep an eye on this because water temps are still way high down there and the more that high erodes on it's east side..the more of a chance Ida can find running room if all the other conditions are just right. Like Goldilocks ;)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html