Ida Pushing Cat 2 Status - Headed towards Cancun

Personally I think she is already there but waiting for confirmation.

She has been as predicted a pain to forecast as she was found overnight to be further west and is moving pretty fast and stronger than expected. NHC stayed conservative with holding her at strong Category 1 Status but after talking Cuba and the Yucatan Channel they are suddenly bringing Cancun more into play. Cancun was within the possible area of landfall, however it was more a possible port of call in her path and now it may be on her main itinerary. Either way... Western Cuba will get tons of rain as she is one tight ball with a large swirl of what looks like feathers... bands off to her right.

Wherever Ida goes...she will bring some measure of misery.

Where is she going?

Go question.

There were more possibilities than answers listed in the excellent 5am Discussion put out by the NHC. Link will be posted below. Jim Williams did a great update at www.hurricanecity.com last night but last night the NHC had her further to the east and now she is coming more into line with the GFS which calls for a landfall in the upper Gulf of Mexico as a stronger storm.

Here is the GFS Model, loop it by hitting forward and watch Ida go zooming forward up into the Gulf Coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009110806&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Can she do that? Sort of goes against climo and against the grain and idea she will go extra-tropical and suddenly sling off to the east and or not get picked up by the front. This is all a matter of timing as if she is moving fast enough she can do that..and if she slows down and the steering currents begin to bomb out then she might wander around.

Look at the water vapor image current at 8am this morning.



Players in this scenario are as follows.

1) To the SSW of Ida there is a river of energy that is pushing Ida to the North
2) Immediately north of that in the Western Gulf of Mexico to Ida's NW is a strengthening area of "storminess" that is sort of developing almost in tandem with Ida's intensification.
3) Over Arizona and Colorado you can see frontal boundaries and the jet digging west to east...
4) Out ahead of that and to the east of it you can see upward bending of motion through Oklahoma, look at that energy...wow moves up into Kansas. Impressive.
5) Air is bending down through the Carolinas and feeding into the Atlantic that is moving SE
6) High dry air is pushing down into the Atlantic towards the Bahamas and the circulation around that is showing Ida more to the west and working in tandem with the river of air below it and whatever is developing in the Western Gulf of Mexico that is enhancing I think Ida in both strength and her bend to the west...left.

7) BONUS QUESTION...Will the front really dig DOWN that fast or go more West to East and will it really grab her????

So...where are you going Ida... in this water vapor dance in the Carib?

You are a mighty hurricane...

I woke up this morning to this set of models:



A few hours later they morphed into this set of models:




As some of my kids would say WTF????

Oh Ida....Every step you take is another piece of the puzzle added to fill in the board...Where are you going??



Don't know for sure. Just know right now Cancun is on alert and the west coast of Cuba is in play for rain and up until this morning I would have said the following.

She will move a crooked sort of path up through very warm water... become a Cat 2 and possibly (didn't say probably) flirt with Cat 3 and surprise everyone and move towards a Upper Gulf of Mexico Landfall.. somewhere from Mobile Bay to Pensacola Bay and then as the front zooms down she weakens fast and begins to merge with the front. If the front isn't that strong she bends east along the panhandle of Florida and gets absorbed. IF the front if the front is stronger she moves in north of Tampa..just north and her rain shield covers the entire state of Florida and she exits off the coast of Jax somewhere and her energy gets morphed into the frontal boundary.

But now? Not sure... really. She is a real player, my girl Ida. Very personally happy on that one as all Ida's I have known have a spunk to them and this Ida has consistently proved her spunkiness.

Going to take a walk and think... take some pictures maybe. Going to watch the news and the Fins play New England and a fin win would make me grin ;) And, going to be back here later this afternoon or whenever events warrant updating.

Truth is... everyone to the north of her and I mean that latitude wise not true north on the compass needs to watch her and quite possibly down the road to the south and east of her if those new models are realistic. If not someone better take those models out and give them a good slap in the head, feed in some good data and see what the magic 8 ball shows... Try Again Later maybe...



Some great sites to go to if you want to read more on Ida:

www.caribwx.com
www.hurricanecity.com
www.flhurricane.com
www.wunderground.com
www.accuweather.com
and of course...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#IDA

As for 8 AM the NHC said the following...note this can and will be updated as events play out in real time vs forecasting which is a prediction of the future based on all reasonable data ....sort of a very educated guess by very educated people:

THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE ULTIMATE
FATE OF IDA. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANTS OF IDA CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE THE GFS LEAVES THE REMNANTS OF IDA BEHIND A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
GIVEN THE LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAY 4...AND HAS IDA
DISSIPATING AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE BY DAY 5. THERE
IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.

Got to think those are heavy words for the NHC ... "high degree of uncertainty" ...

As for me... I woke up with this song stuck in my mind this morning...great song by a great singer who sings with passion and the words just kept swirling around... where are you going... to a ghost dance in the snow... well only if that front is really that strong..

Otherwise... a 7 day Gulf Cruise maybe? Or Ybor City? Or... don't know... maybe Pensacola???

Stay tuned... to a noteworthy, November storm named IDA!!

Great singer Bill Miller, hard to find his music but he is well worth looking into:



Besos Bobbi!!