Special Tropical Weather Outlook Issued! Season sort of jumps the gun.. POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT

Okay, you read about it here days ago when it was all about speculation but as promised the system in the Bahamas is beginning to show signs of possible development. Possible... means could happen, a chance. And, according to the experts that chance is about 30% or less but hey that's much more than anyone would have thought a few days ago.

Sometimes the season starts early, other times it starts late. You can read anything you want into that but in truth every possible storm reacts the way it does based on ongoing current meteorological situations and in concordance to some degree with climo..the on going study of daily weather over time.

Maybe this is a May sub-tropical or maybe it is the real thing.. but it will most likely leave a lasting legacy of being a drought buster across the State of Florida, a place that could use rain badly.

Shown below is a possible set of tracks for a possible system and this will most likely change once we have a system definitively. Early seasons can mean a busy season like in 1933 or a slow season like in 1997. .

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1933/index.html
compare... the tracks...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1997/index.html

You got to take them as they come.

Be that as it may... here is the Special Tropical Weather Outlook put out this afternoon by the wonderful Jack Beven, who is one of the better forecasters in my humble opinion. It's just a possibility.. not a probability right now.

Stay tuned.. for more developing information about the possibly developing tropical system. Either way... moisture in the Bahamas, moisture across Florida from the dangling cold front and the rainy season starting a few days ago.. means rain for sure across Florida.

Be well... will check back later. On dinner break just now and wanted to post to catch you up on what is going on in the tropics. Played hooky yesterday and spent the day at the beach with my best friend enjoying the surf..which was wild!


000
ABNT20 KNHC 181942
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
340 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



Keep following the possible Ana here and on www.hurricanecity.com and www.flhurricane.com the 2 best sites online for hurricane news other than the incomparable and always official:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Besos Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1DWdexSO9M