Edouard Weak But Moving Faster West

Well, it's morning and Edouard does not look a whole lot better. He actually looks worse. However, trends towards re-organization may continue and he may hold on and even get stronger.

It's just not a good situation. You have an organized (but weak) center this close to shore. Any sudden change in any direction (or intensity) and it can make landfall at a vastly different spot than forecasted. And, storms in the Gulf of Mexico are want to intensify rapidly or change directions fast. Last night it looked bad, this morning the recon found the pressure dropping. Right now.. it's not much more than gusty organized winds but by landfall tomorrow as it is paralleling the coast it could become a much stronger storm. Stay tuned.

Note the map from wunderground.com that shows the diversity of paths of storms that have formed in that area.



From the National Hurricane Discussion:

Northerly vertical shear has been disrupting the tropical cyclone
and...a few hours ago...the cloud pattern of Edouard became quite
disorganized as the low-cloud center became displaced well north of
the main area of deep convection. When the Air Force hurricane
hunters penetrated the center of the tropical cyclone just before
0600 UTC...the central pressure was up to 1006 mb. In fact...based
on the flight-level winds around that time...it was dubious as to
whether Edouard was still a tropical storm.

What's a forecaster to do? Err on the side of caution and for people living in that area to pay careful attention to their local NWS and their local news channels for the most complete, up to the minute weather information. In such a populated area you can even listen to your local weather radio.

A known entity for good weather forecasts for the Texas coast is the following TV Station: http://www.khou.com/

Where ever you or a loved one or an old friend you are worried on lives go to:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/

Click on your area and or put in your information.

And keep watching. Pay attention, stay on top of your game yet remember it is currently just a weak tropical storm so please do not panic and expect this to be a Category 3 Hurricane. It is what it is as they say these days :)

Just remember it could become stronger so don't underestimate it.

This is as par for the course as it gets for the Gulf and why it is harder to predict what a storm will do than watching a big organized hurricane cruising along the Bermuda High and watching a front rushing down... in ways Cape Verdes can be more predictable and Gulf storms have a history of being unpredictable both in intensity and track.

Besos Bobbi