Miami Watching Tropical Storm Chris Most Carefully

How do I know a storm is out there and Miami is in the Cone of the Tropical Flavor of the Week?

Because Lina IMed me from Seattle to ask me about Chris. Stuart called me from New York to ask me about Chris and to talk about his property in Key West. Tom has not called but maybe tomorrow. The wind is blowing strong in Miami out of the ESE tonight and it tugs at me and whispers Chris into my ear as I am walking across the street. Gives me chills down my spine. I know that wind and what trouble it can bring.

Oh Yes Chris...we do know you are out there. We watched Norcross this evening and paid closer attention to the Tropical Update on The Weather Channel.

Watching Tropical Storm Chris very carefully tonight as Chris is not going by the game plan and he is further north and east than everyone had hoped he would be. He is not going quietly into the great, tropical night.

It is clear by now... whether by movement or by relocation or by some factors combined.. Chris isn't where he was supposed to be and is not being pulled west as fast as many had hoped.

Why the wishful thinking?

Because if Chris would have gone more to the left .. which means West but we don't like to scare people so we say.. "left" then... he would be bumping into land more and tango with Hispanola and do the Debby dance and possibly fall apart.

Everyone remembers Debby, the storm forecast to destroy Miami but destroyed instead by Hispanola.

But, they also remember Debby WRONG.. because it wasn't Hispanola that did dear Debby in but it was the fact that she never was vertically stacked. She was wearing an old tattered, cheaply bought house dress not a leather skirt with 5 inch heels and Debby watching Tropical Storm Chris tonight carefully as Chris is not going by the game plan and he is further north and east than everyone had hoped he would be. He is not going quietly into the great, tropical night.

It is clear by now... whether by movement or by relocation or by some factors combined.. Chris isn't where he was supposed to be and is not being pulled west as fast as many had hoped.

Why the wishful thinking?

Because if Chris would have gone more to the left .. which means West but we don't like to scare people so we say.. "left" then... he would be bumping into land more and tango with Hispanola and do the Debby dance and possibly fall apart.

Everyone remembers Debby, the storm forecast to destroy Miami but destroyed instead by Hispanola.

But, they also remember Debby WRONG.. because it wasn't Hispanola that did dear Debby in but it was the fact that she never was vertically stacked. She was wearing an old tattered, cheaply bought house dress not a leather skirt with 5 inch heels and Debby never have her groove, her center... she tried to put on heels and she toppled over. Poof... away went the Hurricane Monster that was supposed to eat South Florida and with it went forecaster's faith in models.

Ever since Debby.. which was a few years back.. every storm that gets near there someone screams DEBBY and reminds people what Joe Bastardi's father taught him about Haiti saving America for truth, justice and the American Way.

Hispanola did not kill Georges. Hispanola didn't kill Georges because Georges was stacked right and one determined Cane.

Chris... keeps going like the energizer bunny. He may not be big as some others are but he is strong and he is stacked and he is persistent and he is to the right of the forecasted track and he is stronger and ahead of the intensity forecast.

Norcross tonight went on and on about the area Chris would be in down the road where intensification may be a problem. Norcross did not say whether or not Chris might never make it down the road.. he circled and highlighted the area where Chris could... might...........possibly intensify. If it hits that pocket.. we have a Cane to worry on and possibly a stronger Cane the closer it gets and the longer it sits over warm waters surrounding the Bahamas and the Florida Straits.

Hard to say at this point where Chris will be tomorrow night but I seriously doubt he will be lounging on the North Coast of the Dominican Republic picking up rays and getting some R&R. No ... doubt it. I could be wrong but think Chris will stay over the sea.. not the land. And, if so... Florida has much to worry on over the weekend.

Watch the models tonight and see where the track is tomorrow morning at 5.

I was told that Clark on www.flhurricane.com said that the track is off by quite a bit to the left of where it should be. Clark..forgive me there is only so much a girl can do in one evening and I sent the post to my tmail to read later carefully. I've heard a few people say that Chris is not moving west north west tonight though general movement will be wnw. The movement by the NHC is not supposed to say where he was but where he is going overall in the next 6 hours.

The next 6 hours will tell.

Jim Williams from www.hurricanecity.com did a great job tonight with his radio show. It was a joy to listen to him on the radio talking and interviewing his guest. Jim has a great site and besides the message board which is like a swamp for us weather types to hang out and shoot the breeze and more like the bar on Cheers than anything else. But it is his main page that holds all the info, the data, the hardcore stuff... the message board is mere fluff.

And, there are a dozen or more good message boards out there every season.. many times the same people post on the different boards addictively.

So......... the storm will follow the ULL and the air patterns.

A classic set up talked about at great length at the Hurricane Conference I attended in May was how the most classic set up for a developing storm is an ULL to it's NW... oh, gee... we have that set up now.. or wnw to nw.

We should be thrilled it is early August and not late September or we might have a hurricane in the islands to remember like Cleo or Hugo or David. Chris has been kind, so far.

So, again I ask the question I have asked many times before. What does Chris want? Is he a player or a leader of the pack? What is going on in the beady little mind of Chris? Chris is sneaky. Not to be trusted to follow along with the game plan just because.. and Chris is persistently moving along way too slow.

Sort of a Georges path but without hitting land, over sea.. warm water and more favorable conditions down the road.

The NHC discussion tonight says it all.. everything right now relies on this... does Chris stay south and deal with land or does he stay out over open, warm water not too close to shear but close enough to the shear and ULLs to ventilate him a bit, but not kill him. It is that dangerous balance and interplay between life and death for a tropical system. A little too much shear and close proximity to an ULL and it falls apart, a little distance it is enhanced and follows along the path the ULL sets down for it.

Forecast for Miami on Thursday is RAIN... and showers. We are warned not to be scared it is Chris it is merely the dirty, back side of the Upper Level Low (ULL) moving across South Florida.

Problem is.......... will Chris follow that same path a few days later.

Life in Miami while we wait and wonder on the newest question out of the Tropicals.. why is Castro's brother so quiet? I know he is a man of few words but ...none? I'm beginning to wonder which brother is in charge if either is... maybe at the thought of finally being in control it was too much for Raoul? Okay.. maybe I am being silly but I am a Miami girl... and if Chris does not show up here on Sunday I will be in Little Havana having a Cuban Coffee and showing my son a bit of history in the making... a mood, a feel of what is real and what isn't. Little Havana is the American version.. our buildings are gleaming and new and the smell of Cuban Bodegas and life is rich and delicious. In the real Havana people are afraid to tell their true feelings about what is going on, and the beautiful, magnificent buildings of Havana.. much more beautiful than most of those in Florida are crumbling and falling down in disrepair and old cars that my son Zalmy would love to see are rotting on the road side being used as life rafts for people desperate enough to risk their lives to get across the Florida Straits for freedom ..

This weekend Chris may be crossing the Florida Straits in search of warm water and a path into the Gulf.

I want to say off the top of my head: Marathon.. Cat 1 or 2 but I'm just talking off the top of my head.

I'm not sure where I will be Sunday but Friday I will probably be checking out the Ocean a block from my job, because no matter where Chris is going I should be able to hear him calling across the sea and open sky on Friday in Miami. After that... will see, time will tell and the Hurricane Center will let us know.

Here is the discussion from the Real Players in this Saga.. the National Hurricane Center and the 11pm Discussion:

FOR ONE... IF CHRIS TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE... THE STORM COULD WEAKEN OVER HISPANOLA AND/ORCUBA. IF ON THE OTHER HAND CHRIS REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR CHRIS TO REACH AND PERHAPS MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH WOULD TAKE CHRIS BENEATH A NARROW EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LESSEN THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WOULD BE FELT FARTHER NORTH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/020259.shtml