Cape Verde Hurricanes to Form in 2006? Keep Watching ... Watch Carefully

I don't trust seasons that start off slow and hint at Cape Verde Storms forming later in August and September.

There have been a lot of hints so far this year.... cookie crumbs out there that may lead to a tropical trail of tears later in the season.

This is getting as close as it gets to a Cape Verde set up and only time will tell the next few weeks if that story unfolds and plays out before us or.. if some trof monster or Saharan dust monster saves the US Coastline from a landfalling Cape Verde hurricane.

There are strong, viable waves out there, one after another. A real Wave Train as we call it in Florida. The water is still cool and the waves are not as of yet rolling over the beaches of Dakar the way the John Hope taught us that they need to .. in order to get lift off and a true Cape Verde Hurricane going.

But...they are getting close.

The Saharan Dust is there but it is a bit high leaving a pathway for storms riding along at 8 or 9 degrees north.. flirting with 10.

For now..the water is still a degree or two too colf, not yet bathwater but getting close.

As for upper level winds... getting there.

As for the high moving in to place to steer them.. it's getting in place.

But, for now.. the air out in front of them is a big too dry, too cool... but as a good friend and a great storm tracker taught me years ago... each new wave that gets sent west towards the islands serves to wetten up the atmosphere a little more and juice it up enough that the one behind it finds a bit more moisture and a bit more until well.... once we reach orgasm in the tropics we end up with the BIG ONES and I am not talking sex here but a mainline, hard core Category 4 or 5 hurricane with nothing but running room between the Cape Verde Islands behind it and Cape Hatteras or Cape Kennedy before it.. or this year maybe even Cape May if Mr. Bastardi gets his way with storms.

So.. batten down the hatches, stock up on batteries and figure out what you will do if you are under the gun of a landfalling Cape Verde monster this Hurricane Season of 2006.

It is looking more and more like this may be the season real trackers and students of tropical weather may have been waiting for to gain an eye into the real thing.. A Cape Verde Hurricane.

Note...Jason Dunion and others are out there this year are working on a special project to better understand how a Cape Verde Hurricane forms and to track it carefully, scientifically from the nursery of their birth to where they spend their golden years on our shores in their relatively short life on Planet Earth. It's a great project and I and everyone in the meteorological world wishes them a lot of luck and I wish I could be there too, watching waves flying over head and raining droplets of tropical rain down onto me from a system that may one day go down into history with a name that will be remembered forever.. like Donna or Hugo who came spinning off of Africa.

The more we learn, the more we can do to help save lives and give better early warning down the road and if Global Warming is an issue to worry on the more we know about the "how and why hurricanes form" and why they don't the better.

It's all a mathematical equation and that is why the real weather people need to be math majors not english majors.

I've been screaming African Dust around my friends for longer than I can remember.. there has ALWAYS been a correlation in my mind between big outbreaks vs small strong ones and the path the dust takes across the Ocean to the paths the Cape Verdes take later and some years those dust storms suck all the moisture out of Christopher Landsea's Sahelian rain storm formed Cape Verde Waves and other years...the Dust Storms don't stop the rain from falling..

It's a mathematical equation in my mind... not a song and there is no solution... not as of yet.

Rain from the Sahel Region minus or divided by Dust from Saharan Storms = One Big Bad Momma of a Cape Verde Hurricane... westbound towards the islands, the tropics, St. Thomas, St. John and all the beautiful islands in the Bahamas and the Turks on their way west-north-west towards Miami or Wilmington, which ever way the upper level currents are blowing and depending on however far west the Bermuda High has dug in.. and if it really digs in there is even a threat to the Sabine River area this year (in my opinion).

So... if Desdemona is building a rocketship.. she better hurry up and get the job done fast before the next Cape Verde Hurricane blows her rocketship away before it gets to Mars.

Good links to two good sets of articles and stories about Hurricanes this Sunday while we sit and enjoy the relative quiet of still too early July of 2006.

http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2006&m=July&x=20060727120339lcnirellep0.5051233

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/07/060728-hurricane-warming.html

Two very good stories about 2... two of the best and hardest working hurricane researchers out there who we owe a debt of gratitude to with every piece of knowledge they gain and share with the rest of us.

Happy Hurricane Free Sunday... enjoy it while you got it.

You won't get many more as we get deeper into the Hurricane Season.

Personally, my bets are on Chris or Ernesto to cause tropical trouble in the short term :)

Smiles, Bobbi.. enjoying chocolate covered almonds this morning


Ps.. anyone receiving weekly Sunday reports from WXAMERICA better read it carefully, he is so right about everything he says and he said it very well, kudos to Larry Cosgrove for an excellent weekly update .. quoting "The conclusion we can make is that the tropical cyclone season is about to heat up, and fast!"