Playful Beryl, Playing Off the East Coast

First Start Here: http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=02

Shows the models.

Second, read the discussion with my notes in bold

WTNT42 KNHC 190840
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

THE CENTER WOBBLED A BIT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST A FEW HOURS AGO BUT
A RECENT FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH we slapped it silly and it is now inline with our previous discussions......I.E. 360/6. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING BY THE LONGITUDE OF BERYL AND
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM IN 36-48 HOURS...if the first one doesn't get it the next one will..WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING IN
PLACE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ..we know for sure it won't loop to the SE... THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ..like they usually do above 30N... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...dont get all bent out of shape over it.....OUT OF RESPECT FOR A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE
GFDL AND GFS TRACKS. ..models.... HOWEVER BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK
SYSTEM ..models shmodels...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND IN FACT THE GFS SUGGEST THAT BERYL
WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
2-3 DAYS. ..remember rule of above 30N.. turn girl turn...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE U.K. MET...Yo Blair you watchin? OFFICE
TRACK WHICH APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION..as best as any... BASED ON THE
STEERING SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE. ..???huh?? oh, right, 30 N and a front should save the day....BERYL IS LIKELY ..we ain't positive but we would almost bet on it...TO MERGE WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER. ..we may have to slap it silly again

Lastly, read my own discussion.

Tropical Storm Beryl, a most minimal tropical storm if you ever saw one, will most likely curve out to sea as most storms in this place usually do. It is north 30N and storms begin to curve gracefully out to sea parralleling the Eastern Seaboard on their way to Bermuda or the British Isles. They often merge with a frontal trough and some say this storm formed at the tail end of one so it is as they say... a very frontal tropical storm. PG-13 but no R rating.

There has been a lot of media hype this season since Joe Bastardi www.accuweather.com predicted storms landfalling possibly around the Mid-Atlantic States (above your garden variety Cape Hatteras landfalls) and even a possible New England storm this year. Personally, I think he has a secret crush on my friend Sharon after we were on Hard Copy together doing that piece on hurricanes and she waxed poetic on El Nino and.. he wants to make sure she gets a hurricane up in Maine before she moves back to Miami. One never knows.. there is that Rhode Island connection with him and those Rhode Island types live to see a replay of the 1938 Hurricane the way most Miamians want to outlive Castro.

Bastardi plays in the media and despite all the kvetching from other websites and message boards everyone reads him and listens to him in a "just in case" mode as if to see "the other side of the story." He is amusing :)

And, every once in a while in a year where there is extreme heat across the US, a strong high and warm offshore water temps there is the chance that this could be the year, this could be the storm.

It is easy to write Beryl off and indeed many have... many are just waiting for one of those Cape Verde waves to connect but while we wait for someday we have to go with what we have on the maps and the only player today is Beryl. Everything else is speculation, fantasy and mental, meteorological wanderings of the 3rd Kind.

So... watch the forecast and hope the GFDL is lost in space and will soon kick in and jump on the wished for band wagon of "out to sea" and "fish storm" that everyone is hoping this one will be.

The Northeast and other parts of that region need a flooding, soaker storm like we need another 3rd World War.

But... be prudent and don't count it out just because it rarely happens.

Some people win lottos. Some couples have happy endings. Some people get lucky. Sometimes lightning does hit the exact same spot twice.

The Hurricane Center is doing a good job and it is taking into account the GFDL and other models that show a track closer to the coast than most people think (including them) that it will get. They have been very on the money so far this year even though it's early.

As for me... on this brand new day with the sun rising in the East and a bird chirping outside.. I will go to work, keep reading Atlas Shrugged and when I am done with that I will read My Life As A Man because serendipidously it fell off the book shelf at the library and into my hand after looking for it for a long time and never coming across it. I also came across that carnival book by Herman Wouk. What a wierd week it has been with coming across things.

Great song, pack up all my cares and woes... dah dah dah, dah dah dah, Bye, Bye, Blackbird.. where somebody waits for me, surgar sweet.. dah dah dah... Bye, Bye, Blackbird.

Have a great day everyone.. and watch Beryl play a bit before she eventually goes out to sea. Think for now Ontario is safe from the B storm.
Bobbi

Ps... you know of course to watch the Atlantic as the wave keeps moving across the ocean and the ITCZ stays tropically active and colorful.