Chris Forms in the Alantic as... Castro hands over power to his brother

Tropical Storm Chris has Miami Dead Center in His Cone for a Weekend
Landfall---Tuesday Morning in Miami
August 1st, 2006

24.0 77.5 in 120 hours

Well that puts it neatly offshore and headed this way.

One weathergirl on TV this morning in a cute leather skirt with great
hair reminded viewers in the Miami area that although the cone does show
a storm in our area over the weekend that is still 3 to 5 days away.
Well I don't know how to break it to the girl with skirt to die for
but... We live by the 3 to 5 day forecast as a near certainty and the
NHC is very, very good 5 days out.

My advice to sexy weathergirl: Leave the leather in a closet in an
interior part of your house as it looks like it is going to be very
windy and rainy on Sunday in Miami. Not a day for leather. Keep the
heels though as there could be some flooding in low lying areas around
your studio's parking lot.

Seriously....

This is the problem. Chris looks better today than he did yesterday and
that was with marginal conditions. As noted he is passing the point
where shear inhibited his growth. His reorganization last night where he
became vertically stacked (as good as wearing leather skirts with 5 inch
heels) was what led to the NHC upgrading him to Tropical Storm status
without the hard recon data they often prefer.

The models are based on old cords and bad data. They show Chris taking
on Hispanola and they keep Chris at a low intensity due to a battle with
land. New models based on information gathered today should reflect in
better model output later today.

Stewart who is one of the best forecasters at the NHC gave his own
thoughts that conflict with old models. I would take Stewart's thoughts
over old model runs any day of the week.

Miami... Pay attention. We are in the center of the cone. Cones change
often but we are way too close for comfort with a blue roof on my house
and few hurricane supplies in my pantry.

Since Miami Dade County has already been put on elevated alert due to
the partying over Castro's release of power ... They may just want to go
straight from party mode into panic mode tomorrow.

Waiting to see the Cone shift north or south in Miami today and need a
Cuban Coffee to wake up. I need to make some to do lists of a tropical
kind.

Special thanks to Chris at HurrCity for his excellent updates on
Tropical Storm Chris.

Note...again.... IF Chris stays north of the islands and keeps a classic
track towards South Florida and the high stays in place then he will
most likely come in more like a lion than a lamb and be a Category 1
Cane we are dealing with and not the "fun little tropical storm" that
most party goers in Miami are expecting.

I don't wear leather in the summer or I'd ask where she got the skirt
but at the moment I need batteries and water more than a leather skirt.

See you all at lunch when I check back in after the 11 am and new
information has been released.

Politically.. Is this the longest Fidel has gone without speaking? You
would think by now they would have a host of low level lackeys going on
TV to explain what is going on. As my brother Jay would say. "Splain
yourself Lucy splain" but no official words seem forthcoming. Maybe they
are worried on Chris.....

I know I am...

--bobbistorm

POST FROM MONDAY EVENING.............

What a night, what an unreal night.

TD 3 formed in the Atlantic Ocean as expected by many who have been tracking the wave for some time. Even now there is talk of it's evenutal demise..which I think is a little premature.

It has a tight signature on visible imagery but the system is not that organized.

It is headed towards land or more specifically the islands and warnings and watches needed to be posted and so... there will be a 2am advisory.

Waiting to see how it looks by daylight.

On a more personal level... big Miami story tonight in that Fidel gave over reigns of the country to his brother (as planned) but for at least a 2 month recovery.

Doesn't take a brain surgeon to know something really big is happening in Cuba.

All night Miamians partied and Cuban Americans across the area celebrated. Not once for hours... did any important or unimportant Cuban official come on the TV or news or Air to dispute the many rumors that are abounding in the area. Word from relatives of people here is slowly leaking out of Cuba..

Is Fidel just unwell or has he passed some point of no return? Is he as unwell as Sharon in Israel who is on life support or is he still able to support his regime? We will see.

The Mayor of Miami was on the streets of Calle Ocho tonight and he said something that resonated so deeply with me it bears repeating. He said he hoped that Fidel would give up power while he was the Mayor, during his term.

I am a Miami girl.. born and raised and I started school the same year that Cubans began coming to Miami for a temporary vacation... the same year as Donna came to Florida... my best friends came on flights from Cuba and planned to return before the schoolyear was out. They taught me how to speak spanish, how to drink Malta with milk, how to dance latin dances and to despise Fidel Castro.

They stayed in Miami, he stayed in power.

I moved out of Little Havana or as we used to say "the Road Section" and I moved west with them to Westchester.

I often forget I am not Cuban.

My great, great grandparents lived in Key West in the 1800s and helped raise money for Jose Marti, they traveled back and forth to Havana and Cuba on buying trips for tobacco.

Cuba is as much a part of me as it is of Cuban American's born here... I traveled once offshore just 3 miles out along the Old Bahama Passage while a tropical storm lurked nearby .. I saw the mountains and the island that my great-grandparents knew so well.

And, I wake up every morning and trek down to work and wait for my reward, a small cafecito on Lincoln Road before work before I have weak, watered down American Coffee in my office.

When I lived in L.A. and traveled home to see my family... the first I think after getting off the plane and before I got luggage was stop and get a Cuban Coffee.

I know Castro.. I studied his regime well in College while getting my degree in International Relations.

For him to be off air, not on his cell, not on his balcony and not having anyone else speaking live... speaks more about the situation there than any badly worded letter could ...

And.....................control freaks don't give up power EVER unless they couldn't make the decision themselves.

Lastly... Mr. Leo of the Caribbean, a man who loves rallys and parties and parades cancelled his birthday celebration for August 13th.. he cancelled it (??) and there will be a party in December celebrating the Armed Forces... that says more about the future of Fidel than any press release.

So party on Miami.... party on Little Havana and Hialeah and I hope Maria who I went to school with who had her father and uncle and grandfather all executed in the days after Castro took over for speaking out against Castro... I hope they are looking down from heaven and dancing, smiling...

What a day.. what a night.

Oddly.. I had breakfast this morning in a Cuban restaurant, more for the chance to sit down and read the headlines on my sidekick and to write my morning blog. I didn't so much need food as much as a place to sit and sip my Cortadito and watch people pass by on Washington Avenue. For some reason this morning I didn't want to do Starbucks... I just wanted to sit and watch the people come in and out and think on life.

I hope they are partying tonight.

I hope a new world will open up for Cuba in the years to come.. and I can't wait to someday go there and visit up close and personal not from 3 miles off shore.

I hope Ernest is partying tonight, I hope Ernie is happy... wish I could party with him but for me.......I'm caught staring at Tropical Depression 3 and watching people party in Little Havana waiting for official verification to explain just what is going on and why Castro's 80th birthday party has been cancelled.

Night... check out the National Hurricane Center for more information or www.hurricanecity.com for news on TD3.

Bobbi in Miami on a night to remember in Miami and Havana
Wish I was in Key West tonight, and always