The Trouble with Ivan and the models and the Water Vapor Loop

In this morning's 11am discussion by Stacey Stewart he brought up the issue of a problem developing on the water vapor imagery and some other synoptic features which do not correlate well with the models and show a developing problem in steering currents.

Just as every tv forecaster has let up his guard on the Florida problem of 2004 and begun to look west to a new landfall...

The front digs down.. develops a hook on it and tries desperately to catch Ivan. It may have seeing as the direction of movement was changed from wnw to NW officially. Will take a good six hours at least to see if this verifies.

But...if the front has caught Ivan.. he is not going to lounge around in the Central Gulf wistfully eyeing landfall in NOLA or Mississippi.

The flow across the gulf is now changing and it will pull far back to the right to towns that were given the impression this morning that they are no longer under the gun.

Hope I am wrong because I hate to see this get messier than it already has.

And, have seen many times that an earlier track the NHC made gets revisted towards the end run of the storm.

Watch the water vapor. If Stewart is doing it... you can too!

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

Bobbi.. see you later alligators