5 PM Melissa Cat 5 -175 MPH Forecast Movement NNE at 2 MPH Incredibly Low Pressure 903 MB Catastrophic Damage Expected. Flash Flooding. Mudslides. Storm Surge. Long Rebuilding Period!

 

Melissa all in pink.

Never really see the core like this.

The eye.

Intense. Deadly.... 

Destructive and Historic.

Last night we will have Melissa.

Trust me on that...

Cone below.

Short Term cone.

Melissa has made the turn.

Did a small loop, then NNE

It's been a night!

2 Recon planes in the storm the same time.

Strong wording from NHC...

"Remain in the safe shelter" 

Melissa makes her move ....

There's not much that can be done.

Power is out in some places.

3 people have died before landfall..

Her intense winds that ...

...fill up her whole core there.

175 MPH Winds

Gusts to 200 I'd think...

seen different things.

We will know in real time.

It's a good time to pray.

If you don't like to pray...

...send good thoughts.

My thoughts are below on Melissa.

Been tracking her for ages it seems.

From a messy system...

..with multiple centers.

Tilted.

Misaligned.

Melissa became Cat 5

Over the hottest water South of Jamaica.

Not messy anymore.

Wrote this on X earlier while looping, sharing info with friends and living life in real time as things were happening fast and they will fall apart faster tomorrow.  Then Cuba....then Bahamas....then Bermuda. Melissa didn't want to miss anyone it seems. So let's go back to the beginning.....

BobbiStorm

@BobbiStorm

·

2h

Raining in Raleigh. Raining steady. A sound that's been rare in these parts lately. Cool night 53 degrees. Watching loops in real time, looking at info from recon & thinking on the Saga of Melissa. A wave westbound wave that never gave up & didn't let a 2nd center stop her. Tilted and yet she just moved on and kept going until she found warmer water then hotter water and pulled it together becoming a strong 175 MPH Cat 5 in the heart of the Caribbean. I'd said for a while, I and others have said ....."watch the SW Caribbean" not trying to scare or fear monger and not for click bait but because CLIMO calls for something to try & develop in this region in October. That fact that no storm had been in the Carib & the water was extremely hot as mentioned redundantly closer to Jamaica "should" something that was vertically aligned wander into that area it would have high octane fuel to take advantage of and become a problem. Okay, "problem" was a definite understatement. Definitely thought a hurricane could develop, could get strong but until models began to knock out colorful, disaster possibilities it was hard to believe the weak wave with a mid level center and wonky circulation could go all the way. And ... Melissa went all the way and more. The hot pool of water "just South of Jamaica" that I and others pointed to ... it seems Melissa was listening. When you have researched, studied Hurricane History as long as I have... written, lectured and spent hours of my life talking to friends on hurricanes it's not an attempt to scare people as much as prepare people that "something may form in the SW Caribbean from a westbound wave or from the CAG" and so far (knock on wood) the USA has been spared a hurricane landfall and this did not go up into the Gulf nor towards Florida. We did get TS Chantal in North Carolina. The season is not over yet. Here we are waiting for Melissa to make that turn. She seems to have dipped a bit S ... sometimes hurricanes do a little loop, then curve up when changing directions. Usually takes HUGE hurricanes a bit longer in the same way a huge Winnebago takes a while to turn and can only use certain turning ramps. That's what he said... Honestly steering currents are currently weak. That's why 2 weeks ago long term models were showing a hurricane would form and then sit for DAYS over Hispaniola. Remember that? Well it's Jamaica now, but still a question on timing, speed etc. NHC forecast has been for it to move slowly... towards Jamaica, pick up a bit of speed towards Cuba and THEN take off fast towards Bahamas, Bermuda and beyond. Waiting on the 11 PM. The plan remains the same and movement at 2 MPH doesn't get it anywhere fast. Everyone is doing the best they can with the resources they have and weather happens in real time. Moment by moment with little hiccups in forecasts. Having the NHC is a blessing, saves lives and gives warning in advance. Prayers to all in her path of destruction and I do not mean that as hype. I could have said her "deadly path" and it would not be hyping. Melissa is more than the hurricane we all feared might develop in the SW Carib and utilize the high octane fuel ...oceanic heat just South of Cuba. Thankful for the rain and cool air up my way, thankful Florida is not in the Wind Probs where most my family lives and thankful so many wonderful people online are sharing info and having awesome discussions on this very historic Hurricane. Ps I joked in the blog that I was tired of everyone comparing her to Wilma to Mitch to Ivan to Matthew and Sandy. Her name is Melissa and and we will look back and one day compare Major Hurricanes in the Carib to Melissa. That was possible, but surprising very true indeed. She is one for the history books and everyone watching and looping tonight is watching history in the making. Prayers for Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti and thanks for reading.

Please keep reading from 8 PM 

And thanks for being here.

Can't even see Jamaica in this image.

NHC out early with the 5 PM

Note that's forecast movement.

It's forecast to move NW at 3 MPH.

Still 175 MPH winds 

906 MB flirting with 800s...

Again short term part of the Cone below.

Longer term track!

Track literally goes off the map.

Bermuda in the crosshairs!

 

Discussion explains the advisory.

No current changes.

No eye wall replacement cycles yet.

Maintaining strength.....

After Jamaica and it's mountains..

..and Cuba some shear may weaken it.

Moves faster after Cuba towards Bahamas.

Forecast points!

Wind speed expected at various points.

It's just a matter of time...

..everyone waiting for a sharper turn.

Like NWS as forecast movement.

Going to be a long night in Jamaica.

Power out in many places.

A long dark night...

..and Melissa is on her way.

Bit by bit.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/272042.shtml?  Please read! Good discussion and answers many questions you may be looking for answers to on X or elsewhere. Always go to the source and that's the NHC.

You can see the perfection below.

Can't remember one that looked like this..

...like a child tracing colors perfectly

in a circle!

In motion below

This is a current loop....

Went to Dvorak to watch the movement of the eye.

Easier to see in shades or gray, black and white

The red on IR is so distracting.

Looks West to me.

Doesn't look WNW

But NHC gets to make that call.

Years back I used to follow this site religiously, they are incredibly good for Caribbean hurricanes. You get a feel for the Islands, the people. There are reports from various islands.

www.stormcarib.com

I'm posting the blog to show you the truth...

...the reality and hopefully you will follow.

I really could not say it better and I'm running out of words to warn people of the dangers. I've said much of this online, on X and in the blog. Here's someone else saying, someone I always enjoyed reading. Enjoy, check them out they are very basic and that's good. With a touch of feel for the islands you won't get on some glitzy site with graphics and links all trying to impress you. Words matter. 

I'll update at 8 PM if there is any real change and later at 11 PM. I said I'd keep the blog short after going long this morning.  Thanks for reading and please check them out as Jamaica is as Caribbean as it gets!

Besos BobbiStorm

back later with an update. Song at the bottom. 

"

Monday, October 27, 2025 10:58AM EDT - Not much more to say Melissa

Good morning for most,

Not so much for Jamaica, Central to Eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the DR from the outflow and tail. Melissa sounds like a delicate, comforting name but in this case, not even close. In fact, if there was a Category 6 hurricane status designation, I believe she could achieve this before the initial landfall at a potential 175 mph into south central Jamaica if the forecast sharp turn to the N then NE is correct. The farther west she goes, she will become the very worst she can be with the right NE quadrant pounding ashore over most of the country although being a highly compact, tightly wound up system, the far eastern side of the island will be spared the worst. Storm surge, while limited by the near shoreline topography, will be catastrophic and deadly while the top level winds over 160 mph will be leveling. Wherever the eye lands, as forecast at the moment, on top of the city of Black River, in St. Elizabeth Parish in SW Jamaica, destruction will be virtually complete.

There are numerous, over 800 shelters, open in Kingston, the Capital, alone. Yet, as of this writing, only 32 have residents in them. From various news reports and postings, most residents want to ride this out for fear of their homes being looted after the storm passes or even during the storm. Sadly, this will potentially be the worst decision of your lives since it might cost you your lives and your possessions that you tried to save/salvage as well. This is not just endemic to Kingston. The closer to the landfall, the manifestation of this reality increases dramatically.

Now, outliers. Being the strongest system in the Atlantic this season, it will be steered by any trough/front that drops down from the CONUS, mainland US. So, it is expected to start turning this evening into tomorrow for it's landfalling encounter with Jamaica. When will that turn occur is anyone's real guess.Will it pass by the west coast of Jamaica before turning? Possibly if the trough/front is a late arriving date. Defying most expectations, a couple outliers show a swing and a miss and Melissa heads towards Central America. Remote possibility, yes. Probably? No. With Mother Nature, you must account for all the possibilities, no matter how remote.

Bottom line. Hurricane Melissa is dangerous, deadly, and potentially/probably catastrophic for all in her path and that includes the Turks/Caicos. Yes, the mountainous terrain of Jamaica and eastern Cuba, if the forecast track manifests itself, knocks her down a few categories after wringing her out of prolific and deadly rainfall, she will still have a rough impact on the T/C. Then Bermuda will probably see the residuals of a declining Melissa.

So much for not much more to say but things needed to be said. Stay safe, vigilant, prepared and please, save your lives by thinking and reacting intelligently. She is nothing to play with. Our prayers are with all.

Dave.

In truth ...heart of the matter is...

...may hearts will be broken from Melissa.

People will die... 

(I pray not.....)

...homes will be destroyed.

Roads, bridges too!

Awesome wonderful people.

Grew up with many Jamaican friends...

..Miami is the gateway to the Carib!

They have spirit and heart.

Pray for the best.....

...prepare for the worst!