Hurricane Harbor: Models Promises. NHC Areas of Interest Diminishing Percentages. But OH WOW New Wave Off Africa Looks Like a Keeper. Getting Close to CLIMO Favored Part of the Hurricane Season for Development. August 20 Only 12 Days Away.

10% off Carolinas

50% Old African Wave.

This is what you call ....

"diminishing profits"

That stock looked like a "sure thing"

Then the profits began to fade away....

Every new wave....

Every new area off of Carolinas....

Every area in the Gulf close in....

Promises by the models.

Then the promises go poof!

We say "don't believe long range models"

But Hurricane Hopes spring eternal...

...til your coastal town is in the Cone.

The highs and lows of Hurricane Season.

Hurricane Trackers track.

Hurricane Chasers chase.

Hurricane fears ....fear eternally.

I'm back from my vacation to the Outer Banks this week. It wasn't on the schedule. My husband has a cousin who I like a lot, but we rarely get together. Two years ago he almost died from an aneurysm, he had just enough time to yell to his wife and scream "Call 911" as he's a doctor and been one forever. Miraculously he lived and came back to life while being nursed by his wife of 50 years who had been battling a disease for over a decade and was taking chemo. Back stories are important. He'd been taking care of her, cooking for her, helping her get through a long period of health issues and suddenly she was taking care of him. A few days ago she sadly passed away. They had rented a big house for the family to be together on Corolla on the Outer Banks to spend time together and yet she passed away before the trip. So he and his sons decided to go away and spend time together remembering life, celebrating life and having some alone time together with family in a place she obviously loved. We decided to drive out and spend the day together with them and suddenly we were on the road. By the way it's a long road out to OBX, but a beautiful trip in late summer.

I will admit I was excited about going back to the Banks, especially with some system (in 2025 I'll take any system) trying to develop offshore knowing it would up the winds some and make the surf a bit wilder than it usually is and it's usually pretty wild. In 2025 you gotta take the wind anytime you can find it. But seriously David made a strong impression on me when we met years back and I always enjoy talking with him, listening to him and we sat for hours by a huge picture window looking out at the ocean and I listened so long I didn't realize it was getting dark. Some times are timeless and some moments are precious.

So I was offline most of the last few days as my phone only had one bar at times and everything loaded slow when on the road ....up at the end of the road near Corolla. And there are times to pay attention to the people and the place where you are and I knew that both of the promised possible areas of development had chances that were diminishing slowly so I enjoyed the wind, the surf and the moment.

Quite a kick at the Banks & gotta tell you been there when it was windy and this was something else especially on Thursday when it was way wilder than on Wednesday when it was just your normal, beautiful breezy day on the Banks.

Now we are watching the new wave. It looks way better than the last few and I'm interested. Not losing my heart or mind, but interested. We are all interested as you can see below.

Everyone is interested.

How can you not be interested.

Come on - how could you not.

Came off literally looking like the symbol...

I've complained on African Wave recently often.

They just seem "meh" to use a term recently popular.

We will see.

You may ask "why? why? why?" are we going to rinse, repeat do this again as nothing has really sparked and the same areas keep sparking up with model promises and then we begin again with a new area off the Carolinas or in the NE Gulf or a new African Wave?

CLIMO supports development as we get closer to Prime Time. MJO maybe shows up this time as the models suggest, though the last two times it was pretty much a "no go" as have been the NHC areas of interest in the MDR losing everyone's interest. Maybe the last African Wave with 50% orange promises could become a weak storm recurving, but time is ticking and the story being told is not a promising one.

Let's look at models which are VERY long range. Not reliable in any way in exactitude of location or intensity. But when they keep, constantly showing a hurricane in this general part of the world it means the waves are expected to survive and keep moving West enough at a low enough latitude to become a threat to Florida, to the Carolinas and or crossing Florida into the the Gulf or even Texas depending on the strength of the High Pressure. Let's look at a few models for the time frame August 18th through August 21st and remember these are at the least 10 days out and you know what I say "never trust anything beyond the 5 day let alone the 7day" so let's look at why everyone's talking hurricanes forming later in August.

Okay..........

Have the models been reliable?

No not really.

But we are looking patterns.

Not location and intensity.

And we are moving deeper into August.

Let's look back at Wednesday Night.

It was a fun, hot... silly night on X

Either the models finally broke...

..or they know something we don't believe.

(deep in August ... past 8/20)

Oh ring them bells day

Day Dr Gray said tropics come alive.

2 strong hurricanes that close is...

....almost impossible.

Long range modeling...

...time will tell.

The jokes were off the chart.

Yet we all made fun of Harvey models...

..showing crazy rain totals.

So while I did laugh at the jokes.

I did think we should wait and see.

If only one hurricane makes it to reality.

We'd have a huge problem.

Let alone ... Twins.

DaBuh is watching.

It's a heart he drew.

Some people pin the head on the donkey.

He sees hearts :)

Heart of the matter....

...is it's within the heart of the season.

That time period when ....

...the hurricane season wakes up!

It's inline with CLIMO too!

Not Hurricane Dreams as much...

...as what may be hurricanes forming.

Get a plan!

Pay attention.

We will know soon enough.

But yeah we have had too many promises.

Models promising.

NHC outlooks that showed some promise.

When I was young and I mean even as a kid of nine years old I was in Drama School. Drama, ballet, tap and never forget Baton Twilling which I loved. My mother loved putting me in classes for a year or two at a time. In school I studied Drama and loved Broadway Musicals and Tennesee Williams plays and we won't go into Shakespeare. I had this song stuck in my head, an old song and I don't remember the musical or anything about it but channels that played old Broadway Music would play this often. I'm sure I saw someone dance to it in some tribute to the play. Found it online after a bunch of rock songs and country songs with the word promises. So enjoy. Fits my thoughts on the promises of 10 day models, 12 day models and oh my gosh the AI 15 day models. The show apparently won 2 Tony Awards so the musical was promises realized!

But I'm definiely watching the new wave. We all are watching. If I can promise one thing it would probably be that we will soon see a yellow X appearing over the new wave. Check out the visible imagery on the 2 Day NHC screen.