Hurricane Harbor: Will Something Form in the NE Gulf? Yellow Circle Over FL Remains. Does it Cross Florida and Threaten Carolina Beaches? July 4th Weekend Getting Closer...

The 2 day image below

The loop is chaotic but shows many things.

Starting off with our area of interest that's a big yellow band aid across Florida you can see the convection in the NE Gulf that's being propelled down into the Gulf by the flow around the top of the Upper Level Low that's in the Bahamas. That area flares up with convection as well and while rare to see the convection in the IR loop when an ULl sits over warm water a long time spinning it's common for it to sort of "gulp" in some of the moisture. As a matter of fact, named storms have formed that started out as Upper Level Lows that sat too long over warm water and as the spin is already there they sometimes can start spinning up into a cyclonic feature and get a name. Not saying this is happening, pointing it out as you cannot look at the area in the NE Gulf without noting the spin to the East of Florida in the Bahamas. And, that is why the yellow band aid is so large and stretches across the state.

It's also worth mentioning something that concerned me a few days back and that is the leftover moisture from Barry that was to the North of Barry is colorful and still there off the coast of Texas to the North of where Barry made landfall. I brought this up as a concern on X late at night when we were all discussing the many parts of the Barry issue.

You can also see there is much wind shear in the Cairbbean. The loop below takes you closer up into the Gulf, yet shows little of the Bahamas which is why I showed the first one.

Again the moisture in the NE Gulf.

Barry's leftovers off of South Texas.

Something wants to form in the NE Gulf.

But it's just a "sense" and nothing more.

Generally to light a fire you need a match.

A spark.... that takes a stagnant set up..

...into a developing set up.

GFS shows Tuesday a front.

Friday the EURO shows this below.

The rare Summer Frontal Boundary moved down and then began to fall apart and linger over the area. Convection in the NE Gulf is evident but the energy begins to cross over to the Atlantic side of Florida and there's a sense that that batch of convection moves up along to the coastline... offshore mostly but this is not a strong signal and most disconcerting is the GFS seems uninterested. Go figure.

CMC shows an itsy bitsy system.