Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, November 13, 2023

60% in SW Carib BUT Watching GOM Real Weather Maker Coming. Then A Cold Front Zooms South Again. A Look Back at 2023 Hurricane Season.


Let's start with this graphic.
It's a very good place to start.
SW Carib 60% Orange.
GOM strong storm potential.

Note for tropical development the SW Carib is being watched and it should be upgraded to an Invest any minute now. If not, maybe they aren't so sure and it's more a "maybe" after thought in Mid November. If this develops it should move NE towards Eastern Cuba. That's the general logic deemed from model observation and a good knowledge of CLIMO. I can't guarantee it because it there will be a lot of weather in the Gulf of Mexico moving towards the Northern/NE GOM coastline and this could just all be a messy collision of convection. And, the flow is so fast it's going to be hard for a center to develop with that much shear least near the SW Caribbean coastline. But there's a fly in the immediate future....

I'm watching the tropics and yet I'm smelling the scent of a strong Southern Jet developing along the Gulf of Mexico states which is interesting as we cruise slowly into Winter and Fall fades away like golden, multicolored leaves littering the ground. 

Cranky put this up.
He's all about Content now ....
...but he'll always be CW to me!!

Note the bottom of the map.
Low moves towards land.
Strong moisture feed.
High for now off Jax Beach.

This is WEATHER up close and personal. Always the question with the blog, do I talk on the lemons and oranges on the main page of the NHC homepage or do I talk on what is really happening currently. Note the discussion below from NWS Tallahassee ... one of the best NWS in the country I might add.

Note there is deep tropical moisture from the SW Caribbean into the area and a chance of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Again a very fast flow currently and all the high chances of 60% are in the 7 day, nothing for the next 2 days so far regarding the SW Carib. There's a kind of "suck zone" going on down there as seem on MIMIC.

That's annoying.

But you can see from the EPAC there's a flow.
Why can't satellites work this year when you need them?
Moving on.... you'll have to trust me on this.

Purple splotch in GOM
But NHC not blinking.
Focusing on SW Carib.
7 Day Rain Shadow Map...

A lot of rain along the GOM coastline.
Florida not getting as much.
Panhandle/Tallahassee getting slammed.
Midweek calls for Gale Force Winds.

Sunday a new front cruises down into GOM

Have to tell you Winter is winning.

Florida seems to be lucky this year.

Long range (promise u anything) models.
Show short term development in GOM
Of a non tropical low... 
Anything in the SW Carib goes NE
Florida remains protected it would seen.

This brings me to the next topic.
An early look back at 2023 Season.

Excellent posts this AM from Michael Lowry
Hot spots this year NC and Maine.
Note how often Canada was in the Cone?
In the Zone... in play for action this season.

While it was a busy season but the numbers it was fairly lackluster and so repetitive it all seems to blur together as you can see above tracks traced each other off the East Coast stalling out, strengthening, falling apart then getting second life in the North Atlantic. Red states NC and Maine (weather wise not politically) were the only real busy places to watch. Florida did see action, but the intense, wild Major Hurricane unraveled magically as it was making landfall. That said flooding and some high winds did cause damage, especially in the Florida Panhandle and Georgia wind wise anyway taking down century old Oak Trees.

Again all bets are off on SW Carib AOI
Until we see what if anything happens in the GOM
Weather is fluid and you follow the flow.
The orientation.... stay tuned.

It's not over til it's over. November is not over. As for me I'm in NC enjoying the daily show of color outside my window where a huge Maple Tree turns various shades of golden, orange and red. These are not my favorite colors in the color wheel but against a clear blue sky and dark green Carolina Pines it's stunning, and I'm anchored here enjoying every moment of it until the last leaves are gone. Down the block from me are yellow trees and dark red, bright maroon trees and the rustle of leaves beneath my feet as I walk along. Yes, I want to go to Miami but I don't want to miss a moment of this fast moving seasonal, glorious event.  Actually the trees in the parking lot by the Dollar Store and Fresh Market are the most beautiful in town!! The Crape Myrtle trees by the golf course across the street are almost bare, they bloomed late this year and they lost their leaves early. I've spent a good part of my life watching palm trees in Miami and LA, I finally fell in love with Fall in the Carolinas. Though I will add the Poplars in Crown Heights Brooklyn are beautiful this time of year. 

Is that awesome.
No filter.
I wake up to that......
We almost moved a while back to a nearby townhouse.
But I didn't like the view, couldn't give this up.
And, like my layout here and location.

What do you really want weatherwise?
I want winter, I want snow.
If there's no snow here i'll go to Denver.
I do want to see my grandchildren there...
But as I watch the leaves fall (a yellow one just fell)
I know my heart is wishing for snow.

So sweet weather dreams...
..whatever weather you want!

@bobbistorm on Twitter
I'll update if and when we have an Invest.


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