Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, October 26, 2023

NHC Done with Tammy ...There a Looper "Post Tropical" - Models For Down the Distant Tropical Road Re: Caribbean - OTIS What Went Wrong ...27 Dead Little Warning of Cat 5 Labndfall - Thursday Thoughts and Prayers.


Tammy not going anywhere anytime soon.
According to models and NHC forecast.
Tammy is a looper......

NHC actually pulleld the plug on Tammy.
It's there but no they are done.

Tammy with its gas hose to the tropics 
See the blue to her left?
She is funneling down drier air into that area.
FL feeling less humid thanks to Tammy.
Below the High Pressure 
Moisture in the Caribbean.
That is sometimes a recipe for development.

I'll be honest. I took the day off yesterday from the world, the Internet, the constant flow of info on what's going on in the world and every WhatsApp group I am in. I wandered around a very quiet Mall (Wednesday always good for less people) and had a milk shake (I generally get one a year...) and relaxed and read at Barnes and Noble after enjoying wandering around Belk and Macys department stores old school style. No news, no weather and didn't blog if you were paying attention. It was good. House finally got around to picking a leader, my brother was texting me so I knew and then I went home to cook dinner. Got a headache from the delicious milkshake (not supposed to have dairy ... it was really good and worth it) and then later in the early evening the news of the shooter with very obvious mental illness shot up a bunch of places filled with people in Maine killing a horrific number and injuring more. I've been to Maine, my best friend lived there for a while. I love Maine so it seemed more personal than normal even. What we don't know, we don't know but he was an Arms Specialist who worked for the Army, training people in how to use weapons and in Army Reserves. So many questions and everyone is always in a rush to answer questions online about things we don't have facts on but lots of agendas and guesses in real time. I don't care your agenda... it's annoying and similar to AP putting out a statement fast that there was a 8.0 Earthquake in a big city somewhere but "no deaths reported" and I always frown and think "yeah, yet... it just happened duh!"   Why people retweet any tweet with something that either resonates with their own agenda or they think is "funny" or will get them followers I'll never know and that includes people who have weather sites and insist a Cat 5 Hurricane will wipe out some popular big city in 12 days based on how they read a long range model. Same thing be it weather or a breaking news story. 

I fell asleep listening to the Agenda Free TV news on YouTube after turning off Cable News playing catch up. He's still out there and there's another manhunt in some wooded area. This is why I prefer cities, no woods! (sorry nature lovers)

So I mention all this because...................there are lots ot graphics online about a system forming in the Caribbean that may or may not make landfall somewhere...(also may not form or may form and slide NE or ENE out to sea) as fronts continue moving SOUTH.  And that in itself creates a set up for things to develop in the Caribbea. It's very common when HIGH PRESSURE takes up residence in the South/SE and creates a kind of pressure cooker impact on anything that tries to develop to the South. High pressure to the North and low pressure congregating to the South sometimes is a recipe for tropical development. 

So when I show these models know these models are only as good as the next model run in a few hours. But it gives a general feel for the environment that may exist IF something tries to develop. Note the Highs and Lows not just a possible system.

This is why Tammy isn't moving.
There's a ridge to her North.
Different models show variations.
But this is what is going on with Tammy.

Canadian doing it's thing.
Tammy still there in 132 hours.
Something in Caribbean.
Little Lows in ATL following Tammy.

CMC 198 hours over a week away.
Caribbean concerns.
Note the dark blue eyes at the top.
Winter is in a rush to end Fall.
Soon down the road...

I want you to look at the Northern areas.
Lined up... wild look to the models.

 GFS 141 hours out. 6 days away.
System in Carib would go NE
November like pattern.
High Pressure in play in SE.

Long range hazards.
Then begins to fade away.
In line with Climo ...SW Carib.
EPAC still going strong. El Nino.

Again look at more than what might be a storm, look at the whole picture of the atmosphere to know what is going on.  Know Climo for this time of year. While a Hurricane can develop and we just saw from Otis the models  (all of them) totally missed Rapid Intensification and it hit as a Cat 5 in a metropolitan area with no model November anything goes in the tropics. And, when a hurricane does go North (rarely) it ends the Hurricane Season usually and helps usher down all that cold air on the back side. Boom! Even the long range "Ensembles" otherwise known as "show me anything that can go wrong" show most of the action S of Miami... Carib NE bleeding green into the Atlantic. Anything on the East side from the EATL goes up into NATL. Adding GENERALLY anything in Carib also heads NE into NATL.

Time will tell. Time is on our side.

Damages in Condos from Otis ....
....look like a bomb went off.
Inside what was a beautiful modern building ...
...sure ppl felt safe there. New, modern.
Follow Phil Ferro WSVN in Miami for more.

Lastly........seasons they be a changing. Regarding Otis it's not my part of the world, though I watch it and I know several chasers really upset they didn't see from any model that it would go Cat 5 from models show that Otis would make landfall most likely as a hurricane. No one is flying to Acupulco for a low end hurricane maybe. 

27 known dead currently.
Horrible damage everywhere.
From villages to resorts to high rises.
Especially in twisted high rises.
No real warning.
 Yes it was small and models not good with small cores.
Even one I know saw it coming.
Talking experts at long range analysis.
We have so much more to learn.
So so so much more to learn.

I leave u with a video of it's development and damage.
It's not an agenda thing FOX WXR does a good job.
I watch CNN and FOX depending on the story.
I change channels faster than an old boyfriend...
...changed radio stations looking for a better song!

Look at the image from the video above.

Tuesday 8 AM then 11PM Cat 5.
No time to get there and chase.
No time to get out or prepare.
Then it was gone, poof.
So much devastation.
Broke Patricia's record for strenth!

If this could happen there........ could happen anywhere.

Stay Prepared always with supplies and a plan.

Stay safe... 
...with prayers for those in Maine hiding from a killer.
No school. 
Family finding out who is among the dead vs injured.

With Prayers.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Prayers for Mexico.......and Maine.
Prayers everywhere....


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