Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Updated 5 PM -Bret 65 MPH Westbound 15 MPH Headed Towards Landfall in Islands, Recon Finds Bret Stronger! 93L Behind It. Set Up in SE Concerns Me ... Watch for Pop Up Close in Systems. Does Bret Fall Apart & Die or Do Remnants Snap Back? Tenacious Fighter.


Main difference in wind speed.
Bret definitely looks stronger.
Recon found that out too.

Signature on Earthnull shows stronger winds.
Feisty fighter I'll give it that!

Could it hit 70 MPH?
I think it possibly could.
Not in the forecast tho...
Shear is forecast to appear near where Bret moves.
That shear is forecast to keep it from intensifying.
And aid it in losing intensity.

Bret has showed tenacity and determination, yes this is all scientific and that's my scientific evaluation written according to my nature and way of doing things. There's a bright red area around the center with a small lighter shaded dot in the center and a larger shield of convection sheared a bit to the right (East) and honestly most tropical storms in June this low latitude about to enter the "graveyard of the Caribbean" look way worse than Bret. So let's watch and see what happens. As fo 93L I'll write more on it later when it's given higher chances or an upgrade...

Bret 2017
Bret 2023
Same time in June

As the sun begins to set on Bret.
You can see the structure and strength.

It's June...we don't expect much in June.

But June was not too soon in 2017 or 2023.

Think on that.
And Cindy may be waiting in the wings..

Let's wait and see
Stay tuned.
Keep reading if you haven't.

Sunset in the Caribbean.

* * * 

Slowed to 14 MPH.
Still 60 MPH.
Basically waiting on Recon later today.
Track below of Islands in the Path of Bret.

Not much to say as I knew the 11 AM would mostly be similar to the earlier advisory as we are waiting for Recon to go in and get the real data and see up close and personal what really is going on with Bret rather than rely on other means. It has been slowing down a bit consistently, that is worth noting. Yes, looks ragged in ways and yet still there and moving along in other ways. Waiting on Recon. I'll update later today when we know more from Recon and if anything unusual happens.  Please read on as nothing has changed since I wrote the blog at 10 AM. Typical pic below of a Tropical Storm at this latitude being sheared some so convection is mostly to the East of the center. For where it's at in June looks fairly good to me, everything is relative.

10 AM discussion...

Note that Bret has a strong "left arm" that looks like a curved band far out ahead of it's center...   runs out ahead of the actual storm and this has been consistent since it began rolling. That happens often, it's a useful set up as in this area out ahead of the actual storm and it moistens the atmophsere for Bret as it moves West. It's not common, but it happens enough to be a set up we've seen especially in low latitude developing tropical systems.

Going out wider...
We see Invest 93L behind Bret.

Don't obsess on this one but remember it.

Going wider..........

Far left is Bret.
93L Center system.
Far right.... new African Wave.

Showing the tropics today this way as I want everyone to remember that Bret is not some one hit June wonder and there won't be anything to think on, watch or worry on until late August. This is a set up and the set up provides frequent westbound tropical waves that may or may not develop into concerning systems; some storms will be weaker and some could be the real thing including an early dangerous hurricane.  And, to be honest another concern I have is the current set up further upstream from Bret creates an environment that something could form or pop up suddenly close in to the Florida - Carolina coastline. 

This time of the morning I have Mike on ...down low....shh don't tell him and I have TWC on mute with the subtitle option on so that if something happens new I don't miss it. I like to be in a sort of "bubble" while writing this blog as .. like Mike... I do have a bit of ADD but I also know how to stay focused. 

Tropical Weather doesn't exist in a vacuum, everything impacting Bret is part of the overall environment of the day, the week and while we watch Bret and know the Islands are going to get a windy, wet blow that could create some flooding and mudslides where there is elevation, we can't forget the larger picture. Tropically speaking the wave train from Africa and secondly the nonstop flow of moisture from a trough over Florida as well as storms rolling off the Carolinas into warm water and the nonstop flow of blobs coming off the Gulf of Mexico. All it takes is something to change and it's possible to get a blow up system close in that could dump even more rain than what South Florida gets every day. And, I know this as my WhatsApp feed is filled with torrential downpours, sideways rain and wind blowing around the mango trees my videos show nonstop lightning on the horizon and out over the water.

So you may ask what's the big deal if they get storms every day? The big deal is a tropical storm, a hurricane is an organized mass of nonstop tropical weather that pounds an area with torrential, nonstop rain, constant wind and many things can go blowing in the relentless wind. So never shrug off a mediocre looking tropical storm like Bret that really is currently packing 60 MPH winds and depending on how fast Bret is going that can mean a prolongued period of tropical misery. AND REMEMBER.... Islands have mountains and where there are mountains there is always the danger of mudslides from even a Tropical Storm. And, as in 2017 when Bret sailed through Trinidad and Tobago know that it was eventually followed by mean, lean, tropical monsters that created a path of destruction across the Tropics and along our Hurricane Coast.  

If you shut down the Carib later because El Nino.
You don't shut down the long cruisers...
...that go up over the Islands slamming into land.
Or those that intensify in the Gulf of Mexico.
It began with Bret down where Bret is now in 2023.

I'm not promising you that we will have another season such as 2017, but I am promising you that just because El Nino is forming and growing ... we will have more storms and the later in the season the stronger the storms get and the set up by Florida that sits out daring a hurricane to hit it and the rest of the Hurricane Coastline will have to be ready to jump into action fast regardless of click bait promising you El Nino formed and "no worries" and we will have a "slow hurricane season" because that's just click bait looking for clicks! Do not fall for it.

Bret Westbound.......
....falling apart in the Caribbean.
Or does it ???
There is always a possibility... slim one.
Always a possibility it could flare up again.
In the right spot as it's been tenacious.
Just a concern I have...
..we all have as we talk.
We stalk the tropical weather !!
Happens sometimes...'s not over til it's over!

Rain possibilities this week below:

Anytime you have this much moisture... have an invitation for an Open House.
For any tropical system below that forms.
From the SW the S and the SE.
So yes, it worries me some.
See below...

Low chances but it's there.
Especially with the current set up!

Any wave, storm or remnant of a storm...
...can be sucked right in!

Close in possibiliities for tropical weather.
Wicked weather.
Sudden surprise messy systems.
Is always there in late June and early July.
Never forget that!

That's it for now...
oh wait you want models.
Models consistently show Bret westbound.
Models show 93L pulling NW ish.. 
We will see.

Except for that one stray model...
...all take it West.......
Again what happens after the Carib?
When it gets deeper into Carib?


I'll believe 93L when I see it...
not convinced models handling it well.

We will see.

Follow me on Twitter for real time tweets.
I'll update later if anything huge happens.
Waiting on recon.
Til then Bret lumbering along!

Folow the flow... the oranges and golds.
Anything in Carib goes where?
Bret looks Squid like doesn't it?

Have a wonderful day.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Bret isn't a hurricane..
....but we will have hurricanes.


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