Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, March 07, 2023

A Look at Long Term Models Going Into the 2023 Hurricane Season. 10 Day Promises Snow... 10 Days Later it's 70 Degrees in March. What Are Your Priorities for Hurricane Preparation??

The GFS doing it's weekly Snow Prank for the Carolinas.
10 days ago.... it said it might snow today.
Might, could, would know.
We don't even have rain.
Sunny and 71 degrees!

Today's topic is Models.
Love em or hate em.
Never go past the 7 day... 
... even if you peek at the 10 to 15 day.

The problem with long range models is that they make promises they don't keep. If I had printed out every model that hit South Florida with a direct hit by a hurricane on the 9th or 10th day of a long range run I'd have an interesting Coffee Table Book of What Ifs... 

Sandy was a contender as was every hurricane coming up from the Caribbean as a vigorous wave looked to be a contender. Matthew and Bertha to name a few. Then there's the long range snow storms promised a few days ago that showed the Raleigh area was going to be slammed with over 7 inches of snow.. maybe 10 inches on one model run as the snow melted fast in the real world and the promised rain even evaporated in real time. 

I say this today as it's early March where we are almost out of Winter, not yet into Spring and 86 days away from Hurricane Season. Time moves quickly in 2023... use it wisely to prepare early!

This year the NHC is going to be working within the 7 day time frame vs the 5 day, something they have wanted to do for a long time. Over time we have gotten better at nailing down development in the tropics, Ian being the Poster Child for the incredible job the models did sniffing out a Major Hurricane that would impact some part of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico when it barely looked viable as a tropical disturbance.  While models bobbled a bit on a hit in the Florida Panhandle or closer to Tampa, to have models be that good when a system was barely an entity in a slow year of weak storms insisting on it becoming a Major Hurricane is fantastic. I say fantastic as years ago.... storms hit unsuspecting towns along the Gulf of Mexico and the towns, the homes and all of the people were washed away in the Storm Surge. So it's good to applaud the improvements we have made, we can't stop hurricanes from moving towards landfalls in populated areas but we can and do provide early warnings that give people time to pack up their priorities and evacuate inland away from the deadly winds and storm surge.

An area being watched before the islands.
The next day the models actually took aim on FL W Coast.

Ian was a horrible, deadly disaster.
Ian was also predicted far out past the five day period.

We will see how this year goes and how the NHC handles the tropical waves, depressions and adjusts the line on the models always putting out wild scenarios and then reeling them back in as if they saw nothing two days before. Again I'll remind you the water vapor loop is a more accurate guide almost always than the models. Climatology almost always beats a model with a dramatic run that's fun to discuss online.

Lastly there is one thing you can rely on... you cannot go wrong evaluating your particular concerns during hurricane season and preparing for them in advance should a hurricane actually come your way. Do you have an elderly grandparent living with you that needs special medication? Do you have 2 children under the age of 4 that are still in diapers? Do you have 3 cats, 4 dogs and rabbits in that cute little home you have out in the country somewhere? Where you gonna put your boat if you need to take it out of the water? Every person has a different priority come hurricane season and it's best to evaluate your concerns now so you can put your plan into action later.  Been there and trust me time moves fast when Hurricane Andrew is headed straight to your door as a strong Category 4 Hurricane!

And, I'll say it again and again ... my response when people ask "Isn't chasing a hurricane dangerous?" my response is it's much easier chasing a hurricane with trained chasers who set up carefully, methodically planning where to hunker down to record data than to have a Major Hurricane coming straight to your home where your family lives and works destroying the very fabric of their lives. 

If you live in Hurricane Country .... evaluate your risks in March and April and use May to put together anything you may need as early season hurricanes form often and often take people by surprise. 

More later... I'm busy today with Purim which is often a dress up holiday (similar to but different from Halloween) and I may go dressed as Pine Pollen this year and if I don't I'll probably be covered by the time I deliver purim packages (like Easter Baskets but not really) and going to have some Bourbon in my Coca Cola with dinner tonight beause that's a thing!

Much love, take care but be aware of the dangers that most directly impact you and your family!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


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