Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, October 20, 2022

ATL Quiet. EPAC Has Roslyn! Is This October More Like November? Watch Tail End of Fronts. Lots of Fronts with Cold Weather. Don't Eat the Hurricane Supplies BUT Buy Warmer Clothes...


Keeping it short today and may circle back in a few days and look back at what I said and discuss if there is anything out there to talk about. This is a cold front that ramped up the rainfall in South Florida and dropped temperatures down as cool air filtered across the capital of the tropics making people run and find where they put their sweater to wear over their shorts while doing their morning jog. Cold weather is relative and when it gets into low 70s and 60s in the Miami area every person there looks up and thinks "the air feels nice" followed by "I'm almost cold" and then being Miamians (we love fashion) people look for their favorite "fall" sweater to wear while sipping a Pumpkin Spice Frappe. They then call their mother up north and ask "why is it so cold this morning?" and their mother who had a low of 32 degrees giggles.

Yes most definitely chilly this morning!
Well in the Carolinas....

So being that Miami Mother living Up North I can honestly say that usually the earliest cold fronts come down to South Florida around Halloween and tend to blow the lawn decorations around, but more generally the first real cold front is closer to Thanksgiving. That's the slot in most years weather wise for a good cold front! By December they may order a latte not a frappe, especially if it's late at night! 

So.........while we are in October I'd look more towards November for what may or may not happen in the tropics later this week.

Check out the energy at the base of that front.

There is a coastal low forecat to form off the tail end of said cold front and it's going to mix it up with other atmospheric characters and move on up the coast. Not very tropical, but it's a low and it forms at the end of the front and will help reinforce the strength of the fronts and offer some possible rain for the Carolinas that sticks out far enough to catch a bit of moisture. Then it all combines and we get a kind of front door with a back door cold front and then in a few days our temperatures flirt with the 80s again later this week. But, week the highs hover in the 70s and the lows go lower. We aren't stuck in winter, but we are falling towards it as even peak of the season leaf peeping has moved up as leaves are turning golden colors way ahead of schedule in the Carolinas. 

The GFS (God Bless it's little computerized heart) tries to spin up a little system in the deep Caribbean as a weak wave wanders westbound, as you can see from the image above there are still weak waves moving westbound the way cold fronts are dipping down regularly going eastbound to the North of them.  The latest GFS takes that little heart up across the Greater Antilles towards the Atlantic and that screams November not October patterns.

The TCFP drea it a small little purple area on their map for the 24 to 48 hour time frame. And, if you switch the controls on the NHC Main Page over you will see the EPAC that thinks it's an El Nino and never got or believed the La Nina memo is active and moving along the alphabet.

I can't wait for Seymour to form next....

Just shows you that you can do anything you really want to do even when people tell you that you can't. Because logically speaking this was supposed to be the Atlantic Basin's huge year, not the EPAC. Meteorologists will research this year to figure out what went wrong, many have opinions. Meteorologists always have opinions, like architects they have God complexes. 

So will something form soon in the tropics? Will I ever write a really short blog?

I'd say there is a better than average chance that something will form. There's a better than average chance that the moisture from Roslyn will work it's way up towards Texas if the models are correct. When I can't say the Atlantic will try to develop a storm but fronts are on the move and with the Epac busy again it's hard to see the Yucatan area ramp up. If a system forms in the Caribbean or that part of the Atlantic near the Bahamas it should be picked up and pulled out to sea. 

Never say never.

Just pretend we are in an early November pattern more than Mid Late October pattern and if you see winter clothes on sale I'd buy a few. That's my suggestion and that means if you live in North Florida or even South Florida splurge on a pair of boots as you'll probably have nights you can enjoy them.

Have a great day and know while the Hurricane Season is not over in the Atlantic, we are watching fronts and cold weather and looking at soup and stew recipes for dinner. And, soon enough I'll even order a PSL latte in Raleigh as so far I'm still doing the Frappe thing ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
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Enjoy a lesser known JB song ;)


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