Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 20, 2022

Random Thoughts on the Hurricane Season on the Edge of the Summer Solstice 2022! Every June Models Dream Up Hurricanes. Sometimes... MDR Comes Alive in July. If You Don't Believe Me Ask Bertha.

Today's official NHC 8AM update .. Nothing for 5 days.

93L or whatever it was ...still there.
Constantly reinforced by the next tropical wave.
New old wave near Trinidad.
Note it made it across.
Huge new wave off Africa.
(models like it)
Old dangling frontal boundary.
All areas to watch ...
...but nothing officially happening.

A very long range graphic above shows long range plots.
Plots for possible tropical systems that could form.
Reminds me of that song from that movie.
Every which way but loose...

Models this time of year are INFAMOUS for dreaming up and spitting out Hurricanes that never happen. It doesn't matter what year it is, what decade it is or which better model we have ....they all do it. On AOL (Yes that happened and I have the newspaper to prove it) people would bitch about the MRF and how it always conjured up hurricanes, now we complain on Twitter that the GFS is hallucinating and dreaming up Hurricanes. Some things never change in June.

Everyone waits for June 1st to talk on Hurricane Season. Networks put together specials on the storm that hit their town last or the most historically memorable storm that hit their town. In Raleigh they show footage of Fran or Hazel, in Miami they show footage from Irma or Andrew and the list goes on in every city that has ever had a hurricane come to call without any invitation! 

My unofficial thoughts are below.
I'm in the mood to be honest and true.
Silly and serious.
So follow along for my thoughts on Summer 2022!

Random thoughts on the Hurricane Season on the edge of the Summer Solstice! Two interesting thoughts here on Summer and hurricanes. Some people, who love to jump the gun, believe Summer begins on June 1st or as we call it "Meteorological Summer" as well some who are a bit anal and love things to divide normally in a neat way (such as the 1st of a month) so they prefer going with June 1st rather than June 21st! I can see there logic. I  mean seriously do we divide the day into hours or do we say I'll meet you for dinner at 6:21 PM or do you say "let's do dinner at 6 PM?" June 21st is such an odd number to start anything on, though I had a best friend born on that day with one foot in Gemini and one foot in Cancer and it was terrific so who am I to argue with consistency? 

The second interesting thought is that we start the Hurricane Season on June 1st and yet the real prime time part of the Hurricane Season is the 3rd week in September that "oh snap" alligns with the start of Fall or Autumn (whichever you prefer) and in the old days before the Internet the old time meteorologists who kept journals and wrote letters trading information on those wild storms that came out of the tropics and moved up into the Northern Latitudes noticed that usually happened around the Solstice in September. Often time old journals refer to them as "Solstice Storms" which is true as I have read very old, antigue hurricanes history books so you'll have to trust me! Note the famous poem that some people love to read aloud "September Remember" and yet if you study the graph below, you will know that actually Hurricanes really HAPPEN in the middle of September the most!

That's not to say that they cannot happen earlier nor that they cannot happen in November and even December. Why I remember watching Jim Hope on TWC talking LIVE in front of his blue screen with all the dots shown across the Atlantic for where storms form in July and in real time they announced Bertha and there was a new dot standing out there in the middle of the Atlantic and he stop, turned around and tried to keep going while you could hear his head going "did that really happen?" but he was a pro and you know, it did but not many hurricane seasons have storms like Bertha. 

When he had that look in his eye.... knew things were serious!
He explained for days the MDR doesn't pop in July.
June too soon, July stand by.....
And then Bertha FORMED in the MDR!

In Miami we thought FOR SURE it was coming straight for us!
It curved away and took aim in North Carolina.
Living in Miami I hated when they did that.....
....time changes.
I was young. Miami kids love or hate hurricanes.
My best friend and I had a pity party at the pizza shop!
Not much happens there so .. most love the excitement!

So know when it comes to models and the official beginning of the Hurricane Season....... 
I ask you...................
Which one are you?
June 1st? June 21st? 
When you think of Hurricane Season do you think of June or September?

Do you watch early models in June and think "maybe, it could happen" or "you're saying there's a chance" or you keep your head down and tell yourself the GFS is always nuts and spins up storms that never happen and the EURO is suddenly wonky and wrong and you refuse to believe in Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny or even Tinkerbell!! But, Bertha happened and so will others IF the aspects all align and the factors that help form hurricanes are more positive than negative.

Again meteorology is about mathematics as much as it is science and if you don't believe me ask a mteorologist. 

Positives and Negatives are simplistically seen below.

Warm or cold ocean water temperatures. 
A long discussion on salinity you can read below. it there or not?
CLIMO almost always wins.

The list goes on and on....

This Hurricane Season is forecast to be strong, hot and heavy and you should have already put together your hurricane kit and or made plans to evacuate should you live in a low lying area such as Charleston or Key West or Panama Beach! Also if you live on Miami Beach or East of I-95 in a Flood Zone where you are supposed to evacuate. Mind you most of Miami Beach went to Miami Shores inside the flood zone so that seemed strange but I digress. For Downtown Miami people if your street floods in an afternoon thunderstorm... GET OUT FAST!

Tomorrow is the Solstice......... either way you look at it tomorrow IS Summer 2022! 

If you liked this blog you can thank Thor because he put me in the mood to write silly this morning, but when I say silly I mean silly on a serious topic while contemplating the Summer Solstice tomorrow. I have a family wedding in Atlanta this coming weekend. My husband is in Arizona and went to see the crater that made Winslow famous with my two stepkids and I spent the day sick in bed with what I think was food poisoning. As I woke up this morning "as if nothing happened" I'm going with food poisoning. My coffee this morning was incredible and I'm fine, fine, fine. I also spent the day discussing dresses, shoes and possibilities while tying not to get sucked into early wild models that show something is going form sooner than most meteorologists were say publically. 

June is almost over, July is around the corner and I do believe July will be a July to remember tropically speaking followed by an August that will make people dizzy and by September no one will be saying "Remember September" but singing "make it go away!!!" 

Time will tell.
Don't say I didn't warn ya!
Please.........please.........prepare and make a plan to either evacuate or how to hunker down depending on your own stress level and specific flood zone. You can hide from the wind, but it's hard to run from the water at the last minute when the causeway is flooded and it's too late to leave!!

Besos BobbiStorm
Sweet Tropical Dreams...............
Follow me @BobbiStorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever...

Enjoy the melodies, the music and Thor down below. Also there's a PS on Salinity for you to read up on. 

No jokes about the monkey please.......

Speaking of Clint.............
another favorite song of mine.
Hit me hard while living in West LA (true)


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