Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 23, 2021

Updated 5 PM. Tropical Storm Sam Forms! Forecast to be a Major Hurricane Approaching the Islands. East Coast, Bermuda and the Islands Watching to See What Changes IF Any Pop Up to Change the Long Range Destination of SAM..


Cone at 5 PM - 60 MPH
Again slow movement for now.
Major Hurricane forecast.
Also WEST..... not WNW.

Earlier in the blog below I mentioned that if they say 115 MPH expect it to be higher. Six hours later and they are now showing 125 MPH so again I'll add it could realistically be stronger than 125 in 5 days.  There is just too much going on currently as it is still organizing, down the distant road past the five day period it's still too early to say what will or won't happen. But this is one to watch as it will be a strong hurricane by current forecasts. The blog below mentions the various points that are factored in so please keep reading. But in truth much evolves in real time so a forecast for a strong front today could be a slow, weaker front 4 days from now. The High is still trying to get itself back into shape after Larry, Peter and Rose and oh Odette so what it will exactly look like in 7 days is the big question. Much to factor in and again remember to make sure your hurricane supplies and such are up to date including having enough medication; power outages are not the only problems people deal with in the real world after a landfalling hurricane shows up at your door.  

And... soon the Caribbean will come alive as it does in October and we always have unfortunately October Surprises in the tropics in busy years so keep on top of what you need especially if you live in Florida as it's favored in October for all sorts of landfalls from weak storms to strong ones!

Below is an image of the earthnull signature.
It's there but not as strong as it will be down the road.

A lot of discussion on the inner core of Sam on the left.
Still developing ... a work in progress.

Please keep reading if you did not do so!


* * * 

This is Tropical Storm Sam.

Ironic that all 3 systems marked are in vertical line.

It's a weak signal of sorts but it has nice form and the NHC has decided for a myriad of reasons that you can read in their well written discussion that TD 18 is now Tropical Storm Sam! So, that said, we need to watch this storm and see if forecasts verify and models do not change from what they are currently. It's far out in the Atlantic and quite far South currently moving slowly under a developing strong high. Note we are in a period of flux, where a new Atlantic set up is taking place after the various small tropical storms Peter and Rose took a bit out of it's strength. 

How strong will it be when Sam gets to the Islands? How low will Sam be?

How and where will the cold fronts be and how strong will they be?

What changes occur in the forecast patterns between now and a week from now?

These are your typical late September questions that arise when we have a long tracking, tropical system moving WNW around the High Pressure with everyone from the Islands to Florida up to New England watching; never forget Bermuda that is always watching carefully. Note how slow Sam moves at some point as it is (in theory) consolidating his strength to the point on the 4th and 5th day that the NHC has it as a Major Hurricane. But, will it be a Major at the top part of the cone as we see the cone today or the bottom part of the cone and how will the cone change over the next 5 days. The bottom part of the cone would take it into the Islands or give them one heck of a brush with danger. The top part would imply it's going out to sea. Then there is the High that is forecast to dig in and where ever the high begins to weaken is where Sam will make his break more to the North as all hurricanes do as they are programmed to do by nature. Again Highs will always block their progress to the North, cold fronts approaching the coastline and the hurricane will grab the hurricane and help it move more to the North as well and hopefully out to sea.

Today we see a front across the East Coast, our much awaited first strong cold front of Fall and the remnants Peter where he ran out of gas and you can see where his remnants will go. We are days away, a week away from knowing what will be for sure when Sam is eyeing the East Coast longingly wanting to visit before moving away out to sea.

This wonderful image from Zoom Earth allows us to see both Sam and the rest of his friends. The remnants of Peter that were removed from the map way faster than Nicholas was and Rose far out at sea to the North of Sam. You can see the cold front draped across the East Coast and you can see Sam's Cone as it stands now with the latter dots brightly colored showing he is forecast to be a Major Hurricane at the end of the 5 day Cone.

When is I say the cone will change I only mean cones change frequently in little bits, extrapolated over time to make a big difference in the way that Nicholas was supposed to be a Mexican storm before they kept edging it to the right so that it was a Texas storm. The 3 day should be perfect, the 5 day is good but beyond that changes usually occur. 

I'll add models that I am NOT going to show this morning show some odd things happening in day 7, 8 and 9 including some small Imelda type system shoot off West away from Sam. If you remember the short lived Imelda you will know what I mean. My bottom line is I'm waiting to see what the next model run shows for more clarification of some oddities in the modeling as well as any trends that may or may not occur.

Basically the bottom line is to stay tuned and check back soon.

There are many historical hurricanes that formed near here in September and did a similar track and the high either dug in and directed them towards a landfall on the East coast or they met up with a slow moving cold front that was supposed to drag them out to sea but instead slid the whole mess up the Eastern Seaboard. My head is a mess filled with possible analog storms and I'm going to just let this go and see what Sam does. He's barely a Tropical Storm, looks more like a TD to me still, but that's picking hairs and it's not important because the long term problem is what happens when he gets closer to the Islands and what he does THERE will impact what happens along the East Coast and near Bermuda.

Have a most wonderful day! 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

From one of my favorite Barbra Streisand CDs and I only have a few. Great song. At her best, being funny and telling a story and having fun with it!


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