Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, September 24, 2021

Afternoon Update. Lots Going On... Is Teresa Forming Now? Invest 99L 70% in 2 Days. Hurricane Sam. Westbound 15 MPH ... Can Intensify Fast & Collapse as Fast. Some Dry Air Out There ... MDR Unusually Dry in Late September. Still Far Away.


The wave off Africa is at 50% in the 5 day.

Ex Peter or Invest 99L is at 70% Red in the 2 day.

Invest 99L Models below.

So how does this figure into the long term picture with regard to Sam? Possibly a lot of different ways as it could interact with a trough. Another intangible is how strong is that trough? How do they interact? Or does this new system weaken up the edge of the High and allow Sam to follow along as if a was a plan all along? Some models imply it actually is involved in coastal mayhem and then after putting it's left foot in it takes it's left foot out and well you get the idea.  It's not merely a "fork in the road" but a 5 point stop in ways and the models will try their best to figure it out as if it's a Sherlock Holmes mystery novel in the works. 

As for Sam, he's cruising along Westish faster now than he was forecast to go. The NHC had mildly adjusted his forecast forward speed back to very slow from slow movement. And, then Sam sped up a bit. Sam has "trickster" all over him and until this all plays out in real time it's too soon to buy into any possible end game. We will know soon enough, but until Sam is swimming with the fishes we watch him and monitor any changes in his intensity and direction of forward speed.

Also something will begin to try and develop in the Caribbean as I have said like a broken record. We are in that in between time and the tropics are curerntly acting more like October than Prime Time September. SAL is there waiting to go BOO even though it's a ghost of what it was earlier in the season. Fronts are on the move yet not reliable, but there enough to call out to anything in the Caribbean to come and play a bit. And, they are not a force to reckon with yet that we can simply say any approaching hurricane from the Atlantic will be picked up and swept out to sea. It's also a time when close in, homegrown systems can pop up and be a problem or maybe just a steering factor for the star of the show. 

Think on that. The 5 PM will be out soon. But in truth, they will most likely extrapolate the current forecast with some minor adjustments and move the cone a little bit further down the line.

You know that old saying "too many cooks in the kitchen" well add in sneaky cooks in stealth mode that the other cooks who are cooking fast do not notice. Remember the epic video of the basketball game where you are asked to watch which way the ball is going? It's a classic example of how what you focus on or want to see is sometimes only what you see.  

Teresa, if she forms from 99L, is that one you didn't see coming while staring at floater loops of Sam. They definitely are from the same family. Pranksters, playful and filled with surprises.

So which one is Teresa? 

Isn't Victor such an incredible name? I think so.

Looks like a storm is developing in the Atlantic ... the Carolinas coast. 
At the least. Same doing this thing waiting his turn.

I'll update later with any new information. Compare and contrast the 3 PM Earthnull with the one from earlier this morning below. 


Sam, still far out from the Islands.
Moving slowly 15 MPH West.
Hurricane Sam that is this morning. 75 MPH.

Models currently, mostly, curve him up before the Islands. Still nothing set in stone. Small storms are problematic as they are more likely to intensify up in intensity fast, and collapse just as fast. It's making good use of it's moisture as the feed visible on the Mimic loop is enough but not abundant for the MDR this time of year.  The MIMI also shows the cold front that has brought my temperatures and dew points down in the Carolinas moving very slowly waiting for reinforcements to kick it out. 

If you clicked on that link above you will see the dark blue colorful high pushing down on Sam at the top right of the image above. Shows you why Sam is Westbound for now. Also note "the front" across the East Coast seems to have halted progress but another one should kick it out as I said. 

A nice view of the cone from Hurricane City.

A few things not to forget. There are several areas being watched in the Atlantic, a wave behind Sam could become Teresa unless one of the closer in remnants of previous storms mingled with other moisture become surprise pop ups. No real surprises today and unless you live in the Virgin Islands it's a long, long ways away. Bermuda may end up watching this very closely. Time will tell.

I have an appointment this morning so I'll update this after with any relevant model information or intensity changes.

Cooler weather in the Carolinas today and I'm loving it. Blue skies and cool enough to take my new hoodie to a friends house as the walk back should be in the low 60s. It's cute I need a good excuse to try it out. Stay safe, stay prepared and remember as we move into October soon enough it's the area we really need to watch.  While 2020 may have seemed the longest year in recent history, 2021 has zoomed along faster than a speeding train. 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps Dedicated to Bermuda wondering which way Sam goes... not to say everyone in the Florida Keys are watching quietly, because when there's a hurricane out there you remember it while enjoying life.

The MIMIC really tells the story today. Dry air (for the MDR) as SAL is still a factor. Sam moving a bit faster than expected, though NHC slowed the speed forecast down a tad and now it's cruising along. Hope you watched the MIMIC really as it tells the story. The NHC discussion basically says the cone is between the EURO on the right and the GFS on the left, as I said yesterday. Not much has changed other than the NHC crowning him with the Hurricane title. Still expected to be a Major Hurricane.


At 12:22 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

I live in east central Florida, I don't know why I'm getting triggered this season, I've grown up with hurricanes. Do you think it really would have a chance to affect us here, or should I just breathe?


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