Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, July 06, 2021

UPDATE NHC Forecast Hurricane ELSA - A Wet Windy Messy Blow For Florida. How Strong Does She Get? Impacts Across Florida


Elsa getting stronger wind wise....
..NHC now forecasts Hurricane Elsa..

Ball of convection getting stronger.
Weather to the RIGHT
Circulation to the Left.

Not pretty but should make landfall as a Cane.
Everyone should take precautions.
Low lying areas prone to flooding etc.

I'm at a Zoom funeral for my friend.
I'll update tonight on Elsa.

Despite shear warm water should help Elsa.

Later Bobbi
Told you I'd post a song.
I try to keep my promises.
Will talk on Elsa's trek up the East Coast later.

This is the track of the center of Elsa.
Remember there are impacts far from this Cone.
It's a disconnect for newcomers to Florida.......
...for old timers they are used to this.

This is the location of the "center" Of Elsa.
Below you can see where the "weather" is...

Strongest WIND is near Elsa.
Bad nasty Weather is everywhere.

The Big Bend of Florida will get landfall.
But everywhere will get weather...
...flooding possible tornadoes.

This is a heavily EAST sided system.
That's typical for a storm like this.

Keeping this short this morning as I'll be traveling but I'll be online later. These early season poorly formed tropical storms that come up from the Caribbean approaching a frontal trough with it's associated shear almost always forces weather to the East of the system as the actual "center" carrying stronger winds possibly up to hurricane force in gusts will slide up along the West Coast of Florida and aiming for Florida's Big Bend. The Florida Keys are getting nailed, it's still impacting Cuba as it has a long messy tail and the Miami area up the coast as it moves North all the way to Vero Beach and Jacksonville with receive squally weather all day. Squally weather takes down palm fronds, flooding and the random chance of a tornado. 

While this is NOT a hurricane it may intensify a bit into one or carry near hurricane force winds in strong squalls so warnings have been posted to be safe across a wide area. Somewhere near Steinhatchee it should make "landfal" but from Tampa to Orlando it will be messy as it moves North. It should "graze" Tampa Bay but if Bayshore Blvd floods as it often does as its well.......bayshore... they will feel they got it. 

This is a taste of what is to come later this hurricane season so watch online and don't think the storms of August and September will be messy, discombobulated storms you don't have to worry about as I'm pretty sure we will see more storms take this general track and you better be prepared for those.

If you like nasty weather this will be your sort of day. If not, stay home and clean the house or do whatever you can and know there could be power outages so prepare accordingly.

Lastly .......any storm that has traveled from Africa in one bubble, one pocket of moisture pushing water with it will push that water in a storm surge of sorts up against the beaches on the West Coast and more so the Big Bend.  

Next it moves up into the Southeast so know it won't be visiting as a hurricane but it can cause accidents, power outages and a messy day so follow your local experts carefully. NHC follows the center of the storm and advises you but your local NWS offices and on air meteorologists will warn you of localized problems.

To quote a song... we've only just begun.
Hoping to see a big of Elsa in North Carolina.

On a personal note... thank your for your comments and patience as I wait for the bodies of my friends be pulled from the rubble of Champlain Towers... a building where I worked in the main office back in early 1997. My friend Itty was one of a kind ....and her daughter wrote this loving but humorous blog about her LAST year in 2020 around her birthday. Itty was smart, quick and yet child like in that she saw wonder and beauty in small things and big things, talked to everyone in stores.... from the market to the person at the gas station and yeah I do that too. No wonder we connected so well from day one and for the next 11 years that she was my neighbor on Miami Beach when we were raising kids. Those people you raise kids with and go through the young years of motherhood and the joys of friendship with kindred spirits are golden. And in this case several of her 9 siblings are close with me and the thought of their pain is painful to me, as is watching her family online suffer this horrific tragic loss. You know Itty had what most would think of as an easy life she was extremely comfortable money wise and yet she loved to clean her house. She had the joy of siblings and sister-in-laws and friends she picked up and had lunch with weekly a sort of blessed life that came down tragically when a condo collapsed with her, her husband and more than 100 other souls who will be declared dead when this is over. She moved in .. in September of last year to be closer to her daughter and friends and it was a beautiful building in a beautiful area with an incredible view. 

So thank you for your thoughts and excuse any typos I have to be somewhere later today. 

I'm pretty sure my kids could make fun of me out the wazoo. "Don't talk to Mommy during Hurricane Season" would be the start of a roast and I prefer quiet malls to "we have to leave now!" because Aventura is sooo busy and I like to ask my kids what they feel is right and other siblings complain "Mommy why didn't you tell so and so NOT TO DO THAT!" etc ... we all parent as we parent and we all live as we live and Itty lived with love, friendship, humor (she saw humor in everything) awe and wonder at the small people in our lives, the trees and the sunset and a clean, white beautiful living room... she was something else. And all of our pictures from that time in our lives have the same border around them from photos we took at parties with the party border around us.

That's how I'll remember her.

Bangs hoodie, white shirt ... 

I'll update on Elsa later.
Gotta go..

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

nope cannot think of a song but will later.


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