Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, July 07, 2021

ELSA Tracking Inland as a TS? Doing FSU & UF Today and Moving UP I-95 Tomorrow. Prepare & Beware this August Is Gonna Be Like September... Rockin & Rollin with Real Canes


So let's look ahead.
NHC forecasts Elsa to stay alive a while.
Keeps it as a TS thru New England.

What I do want to say today that no one else is harping on and that is ...this is not a FLORIDA event solely this storm is tracking along making sure to scout out all the various hurricane cities it's future tropical siblings will be visiting.  The Florida Big Bend, Savannah,  Charleston, Morehead and Wilmington and those rarely hit cities up in the Mid Atlantic that might actually feel the blow of a tropical storm in July. 

Normally it's hard to believe that a weak kneed Tropical Storm that briefly was a hurricane but has been disjointed from it's circulation throughout this party would stay "tropical storm" strength  as it rides up I-95 all the way through the Carolinas (stopping briefly first at Savannah) up towards the tip of Long Island. That said, I do think it will "stay together" as that is the one thing Elsa has done amazingly well as she started out deep over Africa. Also, it's worth remembering our recent tropical system that came to life structure wise better over land than it did over water; often tropical storms with a persistent circulation center can pull together and be huge weather makers far inland away from the media lined up along the beach trying to get some water rise picture in pouring rain.  

Tropical Storms are the holy grail for Miami kids in that they want the day off school, they want to hang out at the beach watching the waves and then hunker down hopefully not losing power and the most clean up you have to do is pick up some palm fronds.  They don't want the heavy clean up and week without power a hurricane delivers. It almost did me in when the young kid at TWC said he had seen his first "debris" as a palm frond had fallen down. Yeah....they do that, he must be from up north somewhere. Palm fronds fall that's how they prune themselves that's why we call this type of Tropical Storm "tree trimmers" as they shake off the lose branches from hard word trees and prune the palm fronds. 

I don't like over hype for many reasons and one is that when the real hurricane approaching Category 2 strength aims for Florida or Charleston people who recently moved there think "Oh we went through Elsa it wasn't that bad, it always floods here in a heavy rain" and then they don't prepare properly nor evacuate if they live in a low lying area.  They are an illusion of sorts... definitely interesting and hey you can drive in one to the Farm Store and back (that's usually open) and once I even went with my father to a Drive In Movie that had intermittent gales of wind blowing during a few boring scenes but a great memory.

Never confuse an early season tropical storm with a REAL HURRICANE and I'm not talking the ones the NHC bumps up somewhere over Houma, Louisiana after it made landfall but a real life, intense monster swirling it's way across the Atlantic towards your home town with well defined eye walls, hot towers exploding and vortexes spinning in the eye wall. Tropical Storms can kill, they can cause damage but it's a reminder to Remember September and the way this Hurricane Season is going I'd say this July is like August and that means this August will be like a normal September and you won't have to remember it you will be wishing it went away and we can start talking about snow. It's going to be a long, busy, destructive hurricane season so please prepare. 

Jim Williams of HurricaneCity fame who has been around a long time and been extremely spot on with his yearly hurricane season's predictions be they cities in the path of a storm or maps drawn of possible storm tracks. The map above he made months ago and it's verifying quite nicely. Actually Rob from Crown Weather also drew a similar map but slightly different with zones to pay attention to and they both know what they are doing. Jim uses his own method he developed and well if the Key Lime Pie tastes really good don't start questioning what they use in the recipe enjoy the Key Lime Pie!

This is just a taste of bigger things to come later this season.

The problem with these long land trackers is that they spin up tornadoes and they bring down large oak branches that are really more dangerous than a random palm frond falling. So a weak tropical storm or depression inland can rack up quite a price tag when you look at the whole wide picture. Speaking of the wide picture there's two tropical waves rolling off of Africa currently. Whether they develop or whether they don't they look almost better than ELSA (sorry but true) and they juice up the atmosphere and since one African Wave made it across basically in late June and made landfall in early July I'd venture to say August is going to be like September and you won't have to September Remember it's Hurricane Season but wish it would go away.

Prepare...........the current rainy day in Crystal River is not what you will see in August and September. Remember that!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Away today on a short trip but I'll be back in Raleigh tonight waiting to see what Elsa delivers there as the tracks have moved further to the West this morning teasing us with the possible taste of tropical weather far inland but what they often tease one day they are prone to take away another. 


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