Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, June 25, 2021

African Wave Being Monitored

 I’m mostly offline today trying to deal with upsetting things related to the collapse… implosion of the Champlain Towers where I was Office Manager for a brief times years ago. People who are missing were good, close friends and neighbors on Miami Beach when we were raising our children and laughing on how hard it was to keep a house clean with a bunch of rambunctious boys. My friend Itty (and her husband) are among the many lives lost. The media should be saying close to 200 people died, at least 180 I believe, but it’s not official yet. My daughters math teacher. Science teacher is missing etc 

So I’m ignoring the tropics and the wave today. 

The truth is …. The bottom line is…. The wave has a good chance of making it further than the last and possibly will flare up closer in down the road. Since the NHC began …. This happens always but they never said more than a “strong tropical wave is being monitored and according to ship reports…” and when it developed or got closer to the islands (if it lived that long) they would monitor it to see if watches and warnings needed to be hoisted in the islands to give them the heads up. And until the last few years…. That was the way of the world. The way of the tropical world and it was good  

Chasers and trackers would watch the vigorous wave carefully and spend endless hours (even before AOL) talking to like minded friends about the possibilities. We were called “wishcasters” because we al had our private priorities. Some were terrified and tried to wish it away and others wished they’d come to their town. Every early model or analysis of analog years made for a good argument. 

Now… since things changed at the NHC and many of their best forecasters died, retired or were reassigned elsewhere or took profitable jobs with less benefits but more options with at private meteorological companies the NHC is run as if it’s a division of the NWS which basically it is all one big umbrella shell game. 

Meteorologists who have not spent their lives dedicated totally to tropical meteorology just don’t get it. They live and die by model support vs Synoptics and what the environment and atmosphere will support you n any given day. They paint a circle yellow or orange or red based on model support to CYA their forecasts. In the long term that’s like marrying a hooker and thinking they will give up their night job and be happy in a cottage in suburbia because at some point they won’t. It’s wishcasting. They have agendas and upgrade a subtropical/hybrid storm to tropical storm over land … twice.. because they can and they threw out the rule book. 

If they say it’s a tropical storm it is. The buck stops there. I’ll write about it. I’m not trying to save the world I’m just reporting the story and trying to help people possibly in the path of a real hurricane be more prepared. Knowledge is power. 

I’d have given the wave a 10% yellow yesterday based on presentation and possibilities but not because it had strong model support briefly. It has to fight dry air, shear from Upper Level lows and develop a real viable center before it deserves orange or red this far out at sea. 

Invests make the tropics seem busier we were always busy studying waves that were candidates for names. I do think Claudette was briefly a TS before landfall why they waited til it was over land is beyond me. Kind of like the NWS putting up Tornado Warnings after a tornado hits land but without even a tornado watch. Really… this paragraph is for Mike if he gets this far because he hates long posts and is looking for a song ;)

So I’m doing a staycation today in Barnes and Noble sipping Iced tea, looking thru books and avoiding news. If my family WhatsApp group explodes I’ll know they found Itty’s     body … or maybe another tragedy happened. Maybe I’ll turn my phone off. 

The tropical wave train is real and viable and will erupt when the atmospheric conditions are there. Til then prepare a plan and a back up plan. Follow those you trust (with degrees or without) based on their record of giving you good analysis. I’ll listen to Mike, Jim Williams and Dabuh always and I’m personal friends with people at the NHC and the NWS that over time I’ve collaborated with …. 

Trust is earned  !!!

Hug your family or a tree whatever rocks your boat  

If u got a boat use it  

I’m at Barnes and Nobles  I’ve got a book  

The wave can wander west without me today  

Sweet Tropical Dreams 

Much love to all of you who know who you are  

BobbiStorm hiding from the world today  

No song but if I put one up it would be Carrie Underwood  blown away song 


At 9:42 AM, Blogger Manuel Canino said...

From Puerto Rico , sorry for your lost , and heavy heart . Manuel


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