Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, May 14, 2021

Will Something Develop in the Tropics Next Week? Gulf of Mexico Is a Possibility ... and Worth Watching the Bahamas Later in May.

This is the tropics Friday.
There is no named storm.
BUT models are producing one... 
...but not all models are on board!
A front is draped across Florida.
Dark red convection in the EPAC.
A wave moving West across the Atlantic!

Let's take a look close up.
This is the issue here. 
A stalled out front across Florida.
No real steering currents currently!
Never a good set up early in the season.

Usually nothing happens or there is some development in the Bahamas or in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS, but not the Euro currently, is forecast to close off a Low and move it North towards Louisiana. Not sure really what to say as it's going to evolve in real time. Other models were looking at the East Coast near the Bahamas. May development is rarely a locked in set up until it actually begins to develop.

So let's look at that model below.
This would be next week on Saturday.
Yes it looks like 2020 all over again.
Today Louisiana bound.
Sunday it could be Mobile Bay.. 

But after landfall as maybe a TS look what happens.
A Large Low is off the East Coast on Thursday 5/27.

Then check this out......
...after it goes away another one is there. May 27th!

The set up is there and it's the time of year but I can't say for sure what will happen, Just be aware it is that time of year and we have a decaying front that stays so long it might be looking to rent a vacation home. Seriously long time readers know that I wax poetically on dead, decayed fronts stuck over the warm waters off the Gulf of Mexico (or Bahamas) as prime time tropical prospects especially in May and June.

Why the GFS is finding  multiple lows in the not so distant future... I can't say. Early on models do that. Ever have a relative (or maybe you do this) that take a stick and show it to their pooch and then make big arm movements as if they are a pitcher in the Major Leagues and pretend to throw the stick far off into the field and the pooch races off after the stick he thinks they threw but alas he's still holding onto it laughing.  That prankster is basically often what the models do this time of year. But, if the set up wasn't there currently it would be easy to write off the possibility. 

Again this is the set up.
Stationary front over warm water not moving.

June climo shows it's where we always look.

And that's why everyone is talking about it... but for now it's talk.
But definitely it is possible.

Note it's not just Dabuh....

So check back Saturday Night for more thoughts.
Time will tell.

Saturday the NHC begins officially posting...
...  a Tropical Weather Update
Hurricane Season starts in 2 weeks!

I do expect something official to be watched.
An Invest?
A tropical depression?
Something... that it possible.

Either way the EPAC is going to ignite again soon.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


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