Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, May 20, 2021

UPDATED! INVEST 91L in the GOM Joins Invest 90L in the Atlantic 90% Chance in 5 Days ... Subtropical Storm Ana? What's up in the GOM? Just Clouds and Convection or Maybe Something More Down the Tropical Road?

9 PM update.

Invest 90L is now at 90% chances.

Invest 91L in the GOM popped up close in...

I spoke on this today many times...

... if anything forms it's forecast to move fast.

Stay tuned to see if the NHC upgrades 90L soon.

It's not always about the models, they show something and then they take it away often and then they spit it back out like bad sushi.  You look at the satellite, you know the flow and you know Climo.  The saving grace is the fast flow in the Gulf of Mexico so should this develop into something organized it will be a fast mover.  Out in the Atlantic 90L is trying hard to give birth to our first subtropical storm ANA or Tropical Depression. It better push hard or our homegrown circle could steal that honor of the first designated system of the 2021 Hurricane Season.  Please keep reading my thoughts from earlier today on this set up. And, I'm still thinking another system could develop in the Gulf of Mexico given time; both the Gulf of Mexico and the waters off the SE coast are favorable areas for development in June and late May. As the NHC says "regardless of development" this will add to the wet misery that Texas is already dealing with making a bad situation worse.

* * * 

9 AM

 Invest 90L in the Atlantic.

You can use the link below to watch in real time.
It's developing in it's own odd way.
Subtropicals are often messy. 

Currently it remind me of watching a chef fold egg whites into a batter to make a fancy complicated desert as it's not spinning but folding, cranking up into something that most like will be Subtropical Storm Ana if it gets a name. NHC raised it's chances to 70% in the 2 day and 90% in the 5 day; they seem pretty sure of it's eventual formation so it may become Ana in a few days off the East Coast out at sea.

This is not a neat system.
It's messy and all over the place.

The NHC seems sure tho it will attain a name.

My thoughts below.

It's obvious that the 2021 Hurricane Season is a continuation of the 2020 Hurricane Season when it comes to a naming frenzy by the NHC and you know that is THEIR call as they make the call. Different administrations there had different parameters for using a name or upgrading to a designated storm. Some were exceedingly slow to upgrade and it drove me crazy, others were faster to upgrade to named status and that's the way it is... it's their call and if this becomes upgraded it will be Ana a name often used for similar systems.  In 2015 though another Ana became an early May Tropical Storm when it formed also off the East coast and so it's worth noting no matter who is in charge nor what the conditions are there really is nothing new under the sun... or near the sun or...however that saying goes. 

This is what might be Ana below now.

Not there yet but it's working hard for the money.

The one commonality is the location.

And that is what CLIMO is about.

Another area I'm watching is in the BOC.

Just convection for now.
Convection as in RAIN and Clouds.

Last week I knew it was more likely that the Atlantic system could form into a subtropical vs the storm the models were cooking up for the Gulf of Mexico. BUT when you have a huge high pressure dome with heavy hot air to the North of the Gulf of Mexico if there is any lessening of wind shear or let's say the flow relaxes it's likely that something could try to form and it needs to be watched. The modeled storm seemed more likely for the end of May than this week but we have to wait and see in real time.

What grabs your eye? The X that is NOT where the area that looks like the Low but know it is forecast to move towards the West as per NHC discussion or the area of convection in the GOM or the ghost of the last front to move down past Florida ?? 

Stay tuned.
2021 Hurricane Season will be interesting, busy and sadly at some point for someone somewhere deadly so don't get blase because the first storm of the season may form out in the middle of nowhere. We can't always get what we wish for but we do need to prepare for what we don't wish for...

Now is the time.

With wood supplies low and gas lines and prices crazy it's important to take that into consideration. Hoping that this will NOT be a factor come August and September but the 2020s have shown us you can't rely on anything to be normal so remember that and prepare now as best as you can. Again if you pick up one item every time you run into the Dollar Store (just one) you will have quite a stash of hurricane supplies in a month's time. 

I'll update if and when the NHC does again later today with Invest 90.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


At 10:02 AM, Anonymous Jay Leonard Schwartz said...

In truth, this song from my band's album, actually might suggest the position of the models—or even the fronts themselves. :P


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