Tropics Quiet While Models Often Chase False Echos - EPAC Convecting While Heat Ridge (Double Barrel High.... ) Sets Up Across the South.

Really only game in town is in the EPAC and the NHC doesn't seem interested. Lots of tangerine colored convection on satellite imagery consolidated in little balls firing off of South America every few days.  In the Atlantic side of the Basin that includes the Gulf of Mexico nothing is expected to form any time soon. But models are sniffing out tropical moisture as a feed of tropical moisture is being funneled into Louisiana and Texas. Miami is on the edge of May Monsoons that will begin soon (the current rain is pre-season rain) and you will know when it happens as the media will remind you Miami is flooding (for a few hours til it runs back off into the bay) and Miami people will post dark pictures of impending doom like clouds on Twitter.

I'm not the biggest fan of the song Fins but to quote that song... EPAC is the only game in town today and NHC doesn't seem to be attending that convection fest so I'm just pointing out it is primed and beautiful if you love convection on the satellite imagery vs Saharan Dust shadows in the Main Development Region. I capitalized that for newbies because it is otherwise known as the MDR.

The GFS took a step back from the ledge today and must have taken the day off so check back on later models to see if it tries to reform something in the GOM. Time will tell. The NHC can start their tropical updates in Mid May if they want (totally okay with me... I love illusions) but that doesn't mean anything will form early this year. And, Climo would say to watch the area off the East Coast that isn't as interesting nor does it make for great click bait.  Generally IF the Epac produces something the Atlantic side goes quiet for a week or so as they seem to take turns ... especially in the early preseason days of the Hurricane Season.

That's a lot of Highs... 

Double barreled!

Hot! Hot! Hot!

In truth a huge ridge of high pressure and horribly hot weather is set to build in across the Deep South reminding us what our summers are like and often when you have such a ridge build in low pressures can build to the South and we are desperately searching the models for a good cold front to kick it out but we are getting closer to June than to May.

Strawberry or Blueberry topping?

Caramel or Chocolate or both?

I'll be offline for 2 days for the Jewish holiday of Shavous when we celebrate the giving of the Torah on Mt. Sinai on our way back towards Israel over 3,000 years ago after being slaves in Egypt and the synagogues in America will be serving up cheesecake and ice cream and you can Google why if you are interested but it's a dairy feast of epic proportions. If anyone has problems with dairy but they love dairy they will be double dosing on Tagamet for the feast!  I'll be starting back on my regular Paleo diet after the holiday :) 

Til then Mike is deliciously rambling on weather, tropics and anything that pops into his head on Facebook Live. Dabuh is playing musical messages while watching both the waves in the Atlantic and those coming in close to shore where he surfs and does this thing.  Most of us are quiet. I did see iCyclone wax poetic on Facebook (he's better on Facebook by the way... he goes long there) and so keep watching the NHC to see what they say but the real question is does Mother Nature play a funny prank by being quiet until June 1st after they jumped the gun on May 15th? Only time will tell. That's another Jimmy Buffet song... So many Jimmy Buffet songs rolling around in my head..   

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... yeah sad song but great lyrics.

Jimmy is a poet and he knows it.

Bit bored, just wanna have some fun....