Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, November 01, 2020

UPDATED 10 PM 50 MPH ETA Intensifying and Trying to Consolidate This Morning. Forecast to be a Hurricane & Move Slowly. And Then... Long Term Questions About.


10 PM a much stronger TS.

As I expected as it has an excellent structure.

A solid core growing in size.

70 MPH as of 10 PM
Forecast to be a  strong hurricane.

115 MPH in the forecast.

Track similar but long term questions.

Obviously it can get back over water.

Being honest there are so many questions and possibilities from dying a slow death of Central America or getting back out over warm water moving North towards Jamaica and Cuba. Florida as always is a question as is getting into the Gulf of Mexico. Generally storms do one or other other. They shift NE in November out to the Atlantic or they crawl further West up the Florida Coast..  It's early November now and too soon to tell no matter what anyone shows on Twitter or Instagram when showing some very long term model. So check back tomorrow.

I got out tonight.One of my sons came to visit it's been almost a year since I saw him and we socially distanced, no hugs but good times and nice memories... ended up at a rooftop bar in Raleigh watching the Full Moon talking while drinking a very good Old Fashioned and touched base without any hugs. Very grateful that happened but 2020 really is a challenge, but you do the best you can. 

Will see what ETA does tomorrow but all signs point to intensification in the short term.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm on Twitter and Instagram.'
Ps... if there are any typos .. I had 2 strong Old Fashions but shhh don't tell ;)

2 PM

Grid from Spaghetti Models below.

Most recent models. Close up above.

Compare contrast from earlier below.
NHC has it at the same intensity.
Looks stronger to me.
At 2 PM they upped it to 50 MPH.
As visible from all satellite imagery.

Dvorak shows a healthy core.

That's a close up of the center.
It's moving quickly.

Link below.

Forecast to slow down....

Cone the same.
See what they say at 5 PM.
Blog below is from late this morning.
Thanks for reading along..

Eta looks better than it's NHC reviews.
Sunrise shows it's working on it's core.

Note the blow up at core.
As the sunrises over it.
We can see the symmetry.

Cone remains the same.
Slow forecast movement ...
Hurricane strength forecast.
Forecast to slow down.
But moving W at 15 MPH currently.

Models are confusing.
What else is news?

I've always loved this graphic.
It shows more information.
On the 5 to 7 day there are many questions.

Water temperatures in the Carib.
Mid 80s.
It may be cooler in other places.
But it's still rocket fuel down there.

I have a general rule. When there is a strong earthquake somewhere on the magnitude of 7.0 in a crowded city and the Associated Press puts out a press release that there are "no deaths" I ignore that waiting for confirmation down the road. When it comes to an organizing slow moving tropical system in November forecast to do a slow crawl through the very warm waters of the Caribbean I don't underestimate how strong a hurricane it can be and I don't overly rely on models that are conflicting at best. Short term forecast is for it to slowly consolidate around what is obviously a developing core and intensify over the only hot water left in the tropics.

And with fronts continually digging down they can press high pressure down over the Caribbean for a day or so but for how long is the question? Once the high pressure that is forecast to be there is gone Eta will try to go North IF it can and therein lies the problem, and that is what the long term models are showing as a potential problem. Easy to say "let's just go with the 3 day" but this is 2020 when the NHC wanted to do a 7 day forecast yet the 5 day still often changes tremendously in real time; over time it seems to change slower but how many hurricanes were forecast to hit South Florida and then hit Louisiana this past season? Not saying this will hit Louisiana I am just reminding you how poor long term modeling has been and how off early discussion is looking in the rear view mirror.

Here's a link to the 7 Day USA forecast.

Here's an image to ponder upon............ it's the 7th day last image.

On the 7th day you have a diving front.
A reinforcing front.
A trof like feature in the Eastern GOM

So where will ETA be in 6 days?
How strong will it be?
Can it catch a ride North?

I'm pretty sure we will know soon enough.
Maybe Tuesday or Wednesday.
Til then models are coughing up solutions.

But in the end much depends on ETA.

I'll update later today at some point.
Today is a day to watch ETA do it's thing.
To enjoy some football or Fall festivities.
Or just PSL in Miami or wherever you are....

Do the best you can do this 2020

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps This is ONLY 40 MPH at 8 AM.
But memories of Mitch dance in too many heads.

Note it went all the way past England.
I cut it there at that point.

Also know many meager storms ...
...have crashed into Central America and died there.
Know the deaths in Central America were from a TS..
...slowly, barely moving before.
It crawled up and out of the Carib.


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