Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 01, 2020

Tropical Depression 3 Forms Forecast to Develop into Cristobal. Where Does It Go? All Depends on Timing.

Tropical Depression 3 Forms.

Expected to become Cristobal.
Slow Mover in the short term.
As per NHC new forecast cone.

Cristoball be sipping Cafecito and working out.
Check out that form...
Early signs of banding.
We may end up with a Hurricane...
...but for now let's talk Tropical Storm
They may go with TD first.

Note the placement of the X
when looking at the Earthnull below.

93L has moved out over water.
Will we get an upgrade at 5 PM?
Stay tuned.
Check back often!

Keep reading if you haven't already.
Well this is about as close to "go for liftoff" as we get.

This is an image of the tropics today.
June 1st, 2020.
So busy we are looking for the C storm to form.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

I want you to see the wide picture.
Something not being watched in Mid Atlantic.
Waves coming off of Africa.
And Invest 93L working it's way off the Yucatan.

Below is my fast CliffNotes version.
My longer discussion is below if you've got the time.

The video above shows my thinking currently on Invest 93 forecast by many to be Tropical Storm Cristobal down the tropical road; NHC at 8 am on the First Day of the Hurricane Season has given it a healthy, red 80% circle. I'm gonna leave the models to the Model Man that being Mike from as he's good at getting that info out in a visual way. Next some discussion on the tropics today below. And, later today I'm posting a stand alone blog on the 2020 Hurricane Season but as I learned in Journalism 101 what is happening now is the news and takes precedence over a general public interest story.

Models do their generally Northbound movement.
Some then begin to veer off to the left or right.
Why is that?
Because it hasn't formed yet.
A grid Mike put up on Twitter.
Note the difference in TIMING
not just LANDFALL.

I don't usually quote Levi Cowan.
I respect him tremendously.
But his graphic shows what's in my mind.
To be fair in all our minds.
We are watching to see 93L make splashdown.

Until it does and until it forms and begins swimming.
Lots of options are on the table.

And I want you to remember this system has two parts.
This is a large envelope of mositure...
...circulating in a large complex 
We are tracking the part that gets into the GOM

Timing evolves in real time as this evolves.
That's true.
Models make guesses. 
I'll update model discussion later today.
Trying to keep this simple.

2 model images on
Know it always defaults to the Euro.
You can change settings and play with it.
It's a fabulous site and I use that word rarely.

EURO takes it into Texas.
A big swirl over Texas.
Much rain over Texas.
Yes, I know Texans hate to hear that.
When I say Texas I mean Houston area... this particular case.
And what begins in Houston doesn't stay there.
It flows with the atmosphere.
I'm worried on the some what dead steering currents.

GFS shows a different evolution on THIS one run.
Pulls moisture further East.

And depending on what FORM this takes....
A sleek, small Tropical Storm 
A huge, juggernaut Subtropical?
A hurricane? Let's wait and see on that.

I will update this blog on 93L later today as models come in and Invest 93L puts it's feet in the water and it's toes in the sand and the next set of models come in...

And, I will put out a long Part 2 2020 Hurricane Season Forecast with my own thoughts, just mine though I know from speaking to a few of the better mets around here many have some of those same years in mind when thinking on this current Hurricane Season? Why? Not because we copy each other but because we are all looking at the same data and the same history and coming up with similar ideas where this hurricane season is going but again it evolves in real time.

Prepare NOW.
And not going political but adding in here that with the current unrest and protests that have turned violent in some places curfews are going into place. Seriously 2020 just seems like the year of Stay Home Stay Safe and take a Staycation for this Summer. If curfews are in place, check out your local information as it's totally possible some will limit portable gas sales. I haven't checked into the details yet but someone told me it would be wise to keep some extra gas around in a safe way if this situation may impact you. Yesterday we went out for the day to my favorite vacation spot in Raleigh and hung out at the Farmers Market. Colorful, fun, friendly and beach music playing while shoppers were socially distancing with colorful playful masks and friendly from a distance. I bought bright sunflowers in a mixed bouquet one almost the size of my head. I got a huge freshly made orange juice with berries and cherries thrown in and stopped at Ulta that was open for the first time and quickly bought a few things in case the store has to close again or is targeted by what has become looting riots vs a peaceful protest of the murder of George Floyd. Some stores in some places are going to close to the public again to try and protect their businesses and that could make it hard to find some products because to be honest I saw a lady grab the last of the 90 roll toilet paper and run out of the Target in Minnesota while others grabbed large screen TVs. I suppose we all have our own priorities in a Pandemic during a Protest.... I bring it up because what happens if that happens in Houston and then they close the Target you shop in because of the protest/looting and not because of Covid?

Video link of that bowling scenario if you can't picture it in your creative heads.

There's a three prong problem here to work out and it's best to SHOP EARLY and STOCK UP for the Hurricane Seasson because Mother Nature don't care about protests or pandemics Mother Nature conjures up these storms and lets them rolle like a award winning bowler; except she's rolling a hurricane towards you not a bowling ball.

Stay tuned. Stay safe.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps...figure we could all use some "silly" right about now.

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