Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

60 MPH Tropical Storm Bill Making Landfall. A Solid Tropical Storm.

11 AM Discussion on Tropical Storm Bill

Sort of status quo, moving a bit slower than last night.
Winds still sustained at 60 MPH.
A solid Tropical Storm.

Discussion from the NHC is below.
I highlighted the salient points in yellow

Basically it says nothing new.
Talks on models that indicate Bill could maintain strength.
Blame it on the baroclinic forcing or Brown Water Effect
The result is the same.
More rain in places inland that do not need it.

Definition is relevant in that there has been much discussion on the after effects of Bill as he moves across the country. He will be treated more like a mid-level system than a tropical cyclone. This happens, it doesn't happen often, but often enough for this sort of storm.

"The term "baroclinic" is usually associated with wintertime mid-latitude cyclones that develop and intensify along fronts separating air masses of contrasting thermal characteristics. The mid-latitude cyclone is conceptualized as a low-pressure system with trough and ridge axes tilted westward with height. The strongest horizontal temperature gradients are found near the ground. The term "baroclinic" however, is not often associated with hurricanes. "

Note this report was on Hurricane Danny that formed in 1997 during an Epic El Nino event.

New graphic from NHC

5 Day Cone

Map of Landfall area

Nice little towns there.

You wonder where this Port Lavaca is?
TWC keeps mentioning it

In nice days. Close to the water.
Nice little Bed and Breakfast near there

Tomorrow we will talk on the aftermath of Bill

Note this situation is going to get worse not better.
The heaviest rain will be during rush hour today for many coastal cities.
And many people are out there in cities affected working today.

Another issue is that Bill is over HOT water.
Bill is over the hottest water in the GOM right now.

Hot Water Questions for Bill

Will he intensify?

Bill is currently taking a small jog to the West but his specific forward motion is not that important.  It keeps him over water a little longer and the water is very hot. He has intensified a bit over night and there could be more intensification before landfall. The water is hotter than normal just off the Texas coast and "hot water" to a cyclone is like bowls of pasta before a long distance run. Hot water is an energy bar, guarana or Red Bull for Bill. Wakes up the cyclone a bit, gives it a fast burst of energy often just before landfall. You can get it in soda form or at Whole Foods in pill form. Well, if you live in Miami you can get it at any Whole Foods...

The problem with "jogs" is that they cannot really be predicted. With regard to Bill, any jog here or there doesn't really make that much difference as the weather is everywhere. Strong storms are far away in his NE bands and he is developing a tail of sorts he will drag across Texas, Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas. By the way, Western Louisiana is in it too...

Understand this is a problem for Dallas, Austin not just Houston. In Houston people will prepare as they just had record flooding. Will people prepare in areas along the coast further to the East where they have been led to believe this is all a Texas problem and way too early in the season to really worry on a weak, June Tropical Storm.

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The wonder that is Twitter is that you can verify this information in real time.
An example is a Tweet from Alex Garcia below.

Trends are discussed, pictures posted.
Weather is the best reality show on earth.

Hurricane Brett, a small tiny storm became a Major just off shore
So we watch any storm in the GOM close to land carefully.
They are the proverbial bull in the china shop.
There will be damage somewhere...

The picture above shows the reality of Bill
Low lying roads, homes, neighborhoods
Rapidly rising and moving across roadways

Bill's broad circulation area shows up well on radar above.

Below you can see both Bill and Carlos 

Interesting there are two storms here
Often there is the misconception if the EPAC is busy
The Atlantic side is quiet

Not always.

Rainfall along the Texas Coast ...
Totals will be high

A longer view over time 
Where Bill's rainfall goes

Chita Johnson works at KHOU
KHOU is famous for getting Neil Frank after he left the NHC

Neil was in the studio with her.
Love Neil Frank, no one really like him.
He was in my mind the best at the NHC
And, I've known a few of the directors.
He got out the message of the dangers of a Hurricane
He was the media specialist, meteorologist and director all rolled into one.

Chita Johnson graduated from MSU
She has a dog named Dopplar
A true weather person names their pets after a weather term.

Perhaps one of those little girls were grow up and study meteorology!

Study math if you want to be a meteorologist!

Hurricane History

Let's look back at Hurricane Brett in 1999

A small cyclone that had Rapid Intensification just before landfall.

The link above explains what happened.

The link below explains why little girls should study math if they like meteorology.

It's all about math... not just science.

Math may suck as Jimmy Buffett sings..
Learn it anyway if you want to be a meteorologist.

Besos Bobbi

One day it will all make sense...............

Oldie Goldie Video
Just be glad this is a Tropical Storm
Not a Major Hurricane


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