Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Gonzo Goes Cat 4.. Bermuda and the Maritimes in the Cone

Bermuda is still in the Cone...

East of Bermuda . . .so far the trend is East of Bermuda. Remember that Gonzalo is a small storm in that it's strongest winds are in a small area near the center. Note, however, as he moves up into the higher latitudes the area of strong winds expands and covers a greater area. So the immediate concern for Bermuda will be an issue of timing.

Good discussion from the NHC today.

"Smoothing through the trochoidal oscillation of the eye yields an
initial motion estimate of 320/10 kt.  A high amplitude trough over
the eastern United States is expected to slowly move eastward during
the next couple of days, and will erode the subtropical ridge that
is currently steering Gonzalo.  This change in the large-scale
pattern should cause the hurricane to turn northward by early
Thursday and north-northeastward Thursday night and Friday, likely
bringing Gonzalo near Bermuda in about 2 days."

A lot of "shoulds" and "likely" there but despite the slow forward speed of the cold front it should eventually pick it up. Oh, I said "should" too.. 

Either way places up in the Canadian Maritimes are going to possibly be dealing with Gonzalo.

"EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)"

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

You can see the orientation of the front is odd.. slowly edging it's way East slowly.

Note there is still a system behind it, but the models are not in love with it. There is also an area at the base of the long front that may or may not develop. IF the system in the EPAC develops it would be harder to develop something in the BOC but not impossible.

The models on the system behind this one... are a bit iffy..

storm_91.gif (800×600)

Note despite all the discussion on the possible development in the BOC, Carib & GOM there are no Invest currently.

The main story is Gonzo.. all alone and doing fine in the Atlantic.

The only real question today, besides the timing of the front, is how high will he go?

As the front is delaying it's way East there is less shear on Gonzalo and he is still strengthening.

Let me way it again...


The picture perfect storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

As good as it gets.. and safely spinning out in the ocean.
Shame the stock market is not going as good as Gonzo

Besos Bobbi


Post a Comment

<< Home