Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms in the Atlantic

Seems like someone finally figured out where the center was and we went from 60% probability straight to Tropical Storm.

Drove me crazy all day. Honest. The first system in a while that looked that nicely put together and we were waiting on what I don't know. Verification obviously... via some method that could justify an upgrade from red blob to named Tropical Storm.

For now Ophelia is westbound. Some models take her into the Caribbean, others curve her along the paths previously taken by other storms this season.

Time will tell but the one thing that we know for sure is she IS a Tropical Storm, not a Depression.

Makes me nuts when we are waiting for official confirmation of what is extremely obvious. Just the way it goes and now that we have it...the question is where is it going?

Long range models show variable solutions but easy money is on it to curve before going into the Caribbean. Then again, I saw a long, long, LONG range model that had a storm in the Gulf. It's a wide cone right now.

One thing to remember... just because Irene and Maria took that path out to sea does not mean Ophelia will. Often each storm is similar, however the devil IS in the details and the slightest difference can make a BIG difference later on.

Game on...tho it's not a game just a term we use.

Sweet Tropical Dreams


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