Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Gustav Tuesday - An Eye Pops Out

An eye pops out, looks around and it should see the high to it's north and begin to turn a bit more to the west and stop it's steady progression to the NW.

Basically...we are waiting for Gustav to blink and bend left towards Cuba and land masses that can keep him away from the United States for now and keep him weaker than he might be if he takes the short road not the long road.

Best case scenario for us though not for Cuba is for him to bank left and begin a 3 day tour of the Cuban peninsular. Worst case scenario for us is that he continues NW into the wind and ignores the pretty graphics the NHC has posted for him online.

The NHC has been pretty good this season in forecasting difficult storms and Gustav threatens to be another difficult storm to forecast.

Why? Maybe it's because Fay is still up there doing a blocking sort of dance with the front that is pushing down towards Florida. For the first time in months when the front barrels down from the plains there is something there waiting for it other than a Florida city looking for severe weather. Maybe its because forecasting old, dead storms like Fay are sketchy at best and reliant upon it performing like other storms have in that time and place. Way too many invariables for my tastes. Maybe it's because there is an upper level low setting up that will want to influence Gustav. Maybe it's because Gustav keeps intensifying and pushing into the high. Maybe it's because if Gustav intensifies today too fast that as a Major Hurricane he gets a free pass to do things that he could not do as a Category One as he will be able to make his own steering currents. And, he is a Category One pushing Category Two status right now. Maybe it's just because it's 2008 and this year's crop of storms seem tenacious, stubborn and a bit fickle and prone to doing whatever they want.

Right now we have a weak high over the Orlando area that hopefully is building in. However, it's a weak high still and there is a lot of moisture and rain here so it's not all that strong a high yet.

And, what if a high builds in over Gustav?

Where will Gustav cross Haiti? What direction will it be headed.d

It has slowed down a bit. The barometric pressure has also deepened and recon is and will find a stronger storm.

You can use this website to pick your own favorite view of Gustav. Each shows a different part of the storm which is why they look so different. Sort of like a slice and dice interactive video game to show you what's inside Gustav and what makes him go.

What bothers me about Gustav? What can you gain from my Tuesday discussion that you can't gain from the NHC or anyone else round here?

Gustav worries me. IF he pulls together into a Major Category Three Hurricane he will more likely behave normally and do what Major Hurricanes do. But, he has a push me, pull me area of strong weather not always moving in tandem with the center. He has pulled it together and yet he hasn't. He should look better, he should look rounder. He looks to be constantly in a mode of re-intensification. Something, be it dry air or a not perfectly aligned structure keeps halting that process and he often looks like he wants to lunge west and then keeps going NW. I'll put up a loop that is valid only this morning as it will change as the day progresses.

Something is not perfectly fluid about Gustav, not in how he spins or in how he looks. There is an area to his SW that often spins on it's own and flares up giving it an unbalanced sort of look. IF it pulls together more that will probably end up as one nasty band. But, it still looks awkward. Like an awkward child. It is barely a day old.

Now go to the wide view, it's important to look at the wide view:

Fay moves and pushes the high around way too fast, everything is way too fluid for a clear cut picture of how things will be five days from now if you ask me. I'm not a Tropical Model just a Tropical girl who has watched the tropics a long time. You don't like to see so much in flow and flux. You like to see a more stable, serene water vapor where you can easily figure out where Gustav will go.

As pointed out today on Miami's local weather on Channel 7 .. 24 hours ago he was just an area of low pressure and I will add he is now pushing Category 2.

The models call for him to slow down and decide he doesn't like the way the high looks to his north and he will go west the young man he is and feel his oats over Cuba.

Hope so for our sake though I wouldn't wish this storm on anyone as I think he will get more problematic as he gets older and into this terrible twos.

Keep watching! I'll update around lunchtime when I have time and there is something to say other than to keep a close eye on the storm down below and hope he follows the road map that the NHC has prepared for him.

See ya all later. Besos Bobbi.

Nice site someone posted online today that I am passing along here. Much to play with, enjoy and keep watching.


At 5:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

thanks for the post.


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