Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, August 29, 2004

Hurricane Frances Turns West

Well...big deep breath...

With Hurricane Frances currently moving west it may indeed come in south of the famed 20/60 line that many believe is where a storm has to be to hit South Florida.

Then can turn around 77 or 78 and move nnw up towards Ga/SC border like many think it will.

Course GFS and UKMet like South Florida and AVN. Waiting to see if they change their tune soon.

So sitting here watching a cone that has Miami inside the cone I am reminded what they have been saying over and over since Charley.. anywhere inside that cone.

That by the way is like trying not to think PINK ELEPHANTS ...and trying not to look at the dotted line.

I'll post again later in the day.

I want to say now that so far NHC has been very very on the money.

They predicted this turn west. I think it came a drop earlier but I'm not sure.

For that matter...think Gaston moved inland faster than expected.

There is arguing on whether a TD is forming to the left of Gaston..not sure. But either way think it will move west faster after Gaston ...or NW.

I really think it will move times wnw... then wnw and somewhere around 77.5 or even 78 turn nnw. Will it be enough to clear WPB..don't know. Will see.

That being said...could come barreling across the Keys or move NW ... its just too soon to tell.

Far far away.

Reminds me though of that song from the Smothers Brothers Comedy Hour.

Did you ever have to make up your mind?
Did you ever have to finally decide?

Glad I'm the one writing humor and first hand human interest and not making the decisions at the NHC because its a very complicated flow and right now too many models hit Florida to say South Florida will probably be okay because the GFDL that had it hitting Galveston once breaks with the past.

GFS on August 25th had it hitting South Florida. I printed it out.. just in case ...well just in case... I wanted to remember what it looked like. Not happy I had that gut. I don't usually print out forecasts that are like 10 or 11 days out.

Bobbi... sitting within the cone


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