Is Arthur Trying to Form Next Week in the Gulf? Or Somewhere Else? A Bit of Spin from the EPAC Gives it a Chance to Win!! Models Be Spinning Up Possibilities.

 

There has been much discussion on this year's building El Nino about it "twinning" the 1997 El Nino. If you don't know what that is you probably are not a girl and maybe never had a best friend nor wore outfits that looked very similar. It's a thing. Trust me.

We'd get bikinis that almost looked alike. We'd wear cowboy boots with the same cute short dress. We'd go to a formal in almost matching outfits. We were best friends. The question is ..... is 2026 a "twin" of the infamous 1997  El Nino? Many are suggesting that. The data below shows a real possibility. I might see red cowboy boots down the road this season.

Good graphic from Ben Noll.

There is a similarity.

Hard to ignore.

Are they identical?

Probably not ....

...but who can tell the difference?

So let's look at 1997 Hurricane Season.

How it began.....

...Lows off the SE Coast.

An upgraded No Name Low first days of June.

Then Ana formed in the same spot.

We have the same set up now ironically.

We have convection in the Gulf.

And a Low to it's NE.

A High to the North.

Then we have the cross over scenario.

Spin from the EPAC crosses over.

Possibly that "twist" helps get spin going.

Sounds kind of desperate ....

...but it has happened before.

So here's some models.

Lots of members taking their turn ....

....suggesting possible tracks.

June 12th.

You can almost see where the Cone would be.

But much can and will change between now and then.

Definitely people in this zone...

..are watching carefully.

Kind of Nola to @iCyclone's house.

"Hurricane House"

Over to Destin and the Big Bend.

But what really happens?

IF it happens?

It's a Tropical Crap Shoot.

As I have said many times this season, just because we have a building El Nino does not mean there are not chances early on for something to develop close in as usually happens in June and July. Tropical Waves off Africa are not viable yet, though fun to watch them battle the dust and push on Westward. Fronts are still around. We had a cold front in the Carolinas on June 2nd, temperatures dipped to the upper 40s at night. Rebounded way too fast today as the high was 90. So weak fronts. And, weak fronts die out and go flat and linger across the Gulf, across Florida and off the SE Coast and sometimes they develop in the Gulf and other times they develop off the SE Coast and sometimes they do not develop. 

So until Senor El Nino clamps down on the Caribbean with his 9 inch nails .... we have a chance.

Stay tuned. 

Keep watching.

Buy Hurricane Supplies during the July 4th Holiday sales. 

BobbiStorm

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