Invest 90E in the EPAC at 90% for Development! Amanda 1st Name in EPAC. Questions Closer In on Development. There's a Window BUT It's Short Term For Now in Atlantic.

 

Short update this morning to say EPAC is about to get a named storm as they are at 90% in the 7 day and up to 80% in the 2 day.  There is a yellow area being watched closer to the coast with lower intriguing chances of development. The Red 90% is a huge area with a beautiful swirl to it and may influence the weather around it some, while not having any big landfall achievements.

Water Vapor shows the flow

Currently Invest 90E is a big sprawling area.

Takes longer for sprawling areas to...

...pull it together and build a core.

SAL owns most of the Atlantic.

Distant Atlantic....

Gulf and close in to SE/FL coast not as much...

Using a simplistic long range probability graphic.

This really shows you where to look for development.

Not saying we are getting development.

But IF we were this is where to watch.

Gulf/East of FL

I put this on X just now.

There's lots of tantalizing scenarios a weather person can imagine, but that's Fantasy Tracking. And, yet hard truth is hard to find currently. Colorado and Montana barely got any snow until May. June 1st Denver gets a hail storm that looks like snow fell. June 2nd a cold front dives down into the Carolinas with a beautiful breath of fresh air, but it'll disappear as fast as it dived down. 

There is a chance a Subtropical storm could develop fast off the East Coast near FL/Bahamas and exit Stage Right fast! There's a chance development in the EPAC close in that could cross over into BOC/Carib or the potential for development and fuel the ongoing semi-permanent wannabe Low in the Gulf. Nothing I'd place a bet on yet, but watching the set up and seeing where it goes. Still very early and too soon to scream June development. But maybe.... a sliver of a chance. Generally development in EPAC shears away any chances for the Gulf, but hey it's been an odd year and I expect odd to continue weather wise.

El Nino is building a mystery. Yes, we have an El Nino developing but what kind of El Nino? Where it sets up shop, digs in and explodes dictates what we see this Hurricane Season. Closer in more shear, further out less shear in the Caribbean. Lots riding on the actual location of the strength of the El Nino or does it all just fill in the way the way it did in 1997/98? That was a horrific El Nino for Pacific Rim populations. It may have been a season not to remember in the Atlantic, but for many in the rest of the world it was drought stricken, deadly and destructive. Note image below.

Above is December 26th, 1997

Note this is THE graphic as....

El Nino literally is connected to Christmas.

In the early 70s the term made it into the media.

It means the "little boy" 

Christmas time.

Until we hit that reference point...

...we are still in forecast territory.

Watching new charts that come out every day.

So far 2026 has been "twinning" 1997

Again time will tell.

Gotta run...have appointments this morning.

Stay tuned....

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

elsewhere also but not always weather.

1997 was a dark time in ways.

Funny in other ways.

El Nino Song for y'all